They are the otulier in this race.

Even private polls place this one too close to call.

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by: RandySF @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 19:55:29 PM UTC

KY-Sen

I dunno. pollster.com's composite (not including today's poll) is currently
McConnell 47.2% Lunsford 44.4%
Still lots of undecideds. And those trendlines look great, extrapolating to a dead heat on election day.
This race will be really exciting to follow election night.

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by: homerun @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 21:10:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They have Obama doing about as well as Lunsford

I'll believe that when it happens.

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by: MichiganLiberal @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 02:27:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SUSA: Norm Coleman's net approval at -20

HAHA  Coleman's approval is at 38/58 while Klobuchar is at 59/32.  Great to be a dem nowadays.  

Though I imagine future Senator Franken will be the type who rarely sees an approval much over 50% if at all.  I hope I'm wrong.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index...

Job approval for Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman has fallen to Minus 20, the lowest it has been in 39 months of SurveyUSA tracking. 38% approve of Senator Coleman today. 58% Disapprove.

Junior Senator, Amy Klobuchar continues to stay in positive territory with a net job approval of Plus 27.   59% approve of her performance. 32% disapprove.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 19:59:33 PM UTC

Hahahaha.

Coleman is going down.

And Amy will cruise to re-election. I'm feeling good about our hopes in 2012. Honestly who's really going to have tough races? Musgrove if he makes it in (beacuse the seat is really up in 2006-2012-2018), maybe Webb. Who else? All of our takeovers are looking pretty solid at home. If anything we have good shots at winning in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee that time around. 2014 will be a year of big gains for the NRSC though.

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:08:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ehh... 2012 can be tricky

If the mood is against Dems that year I can see a few tough holds.  Tester is vulnerable if Rehberg challenges him in MT.  Jim Webb just cannot seem to get his approval above the high 40's which is troublesome.  McCaskill is moderately popular, but I can't see her not getting a real challenger in 2012.

Also beware of retirements.  We had almost none in 2006 which makes it more likely we'll have some in 2012.

But ya, I imagine we'll have some decent pickup opportunities that year as well.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:31:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tester's pretty darn popular

Rehberg is more likely to get knocked off or retire, IMO and he's the only one who could make it a at all serious race. McCaskill is pretty popular and who's going to run for the Republicans. They don't have a very big bench any more. Unless it's a very anti-Democratic year and they get their top tier recruits in those states they won't make up any gains. And besides there are only 3 real possibilities.

As for retirements. Feinstein, Akaka, Conrad, Byrd and Kennedy (the last two if they are still alive). Conrad is the only one I think we'd lose. It's possible we could lose in West Virgina but we've got a pretty deep bench of conservatish Democrats there and they've got Capito who might lose this year.

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:40:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ya, good shape overall

North Dakota could possibly be saved if Pomeroy ditched the house seat he's held forever for the Senate.  But I'm not sure he'd do it with the seniority he has in the House.

West Virginia is an easy hold.  Governor Manchin will easily take the Senate seat of whichever Senator retires or dies first (probably Byrd).  Manchin has an approval of some ungodly number like 80%.  Ya, he'll be a bit to the right of Byrd or Rockefeller, but he sounds like a good fit.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:51:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm hoping Barth wins this year

and takes Byrd's seat. She was his state director and would be a much better Senator. But Manchin will probably be looking for a job and he's popular enough to crush anyone who ran vs him.

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by: Populista @ Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 01:59:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boom!

Great ad.

I don't believe Rass, I think they might be a outliner. It's tough but this is the first Senate race we'll be getting results from so we will see how big the wave is then. Of course, polls in Minnesota don't close for a few hours after that so by the time I collapse back at home it will probably be over.

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:06:06 PM UTC

If Lunsford wins

I would imagine that Martin would win Georgia, Franken would win Minnesota, and Musgrove would win Mississippi.  That would give us 62 seats and 11 pickups (We definitely have won VA, NM, and CO, most likely NH, and probably NC, OR, and AK).

I'd love to see Noriega win Texas and Rice to win Oklahoma, but something major must occur for that to happen.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 23:53:04 PM UTC