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WY-AL: Another One-Point Lead for Trauner

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 2:05 PM EDT


Mason-Dixon for Casper Star-Tribune (10/13-14, likely voters):

Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 43
David Herbert (L): 4
(n = 625)

Apparently Mason-Dixon liked what they saw with Research 2000's poll last week of the at-large representative's race in Wyoming, because they reproduced the exact same numbers. The most noteworthy difference here is the inclusion of Libertarian David Herbert, which explains where some of that unaccounted-for 13% from the R2K poll may be going.

There's still some bad news for Trauner: of the 9% who remain undecided in this poll, 75% are Republicans. (Only 16% are Democrats and 9% are independents.) On the other hand, there's some good news, too: Mason-Dixon polled this race for the Star-Tribune at this point two years ago, and Trauner trailed Barbara Cubin by 7%, but went on to lose by less than 1,000 votes.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

Crisitunity :: WY-AL: Another One-Point Lead for Trauner
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We all knew this was coming...
http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.c...

An official with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just called and said they will spend more than $1 million in TV ads against GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann. The ads start tomorrow. This is in addition to the money the political committee is spending in Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District.

If you keep reading, it sounds like El has broken 640K raised since Friday's incident.  


Sweet.
I thought they might pass over this one and let El handle it himself. Good to see bold moves coming from CVH and Co. I get the feeling Van Hollen is more of a risk taker than Rahm.

Speaking of which, D-trip should open up in WY-AL. Talk about bang for the buck.


[ Parent ]
Not sure if we want that
Trauner seems to be doing quite well on his own, and it may be one of those districts where the national party might actually be a drag.

Still, that's definitely an idea to consider.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Yeah, I definitely agree with you.
I think that if they do wade in, it should be in a very limited capacity. Micro-targeting some small demographic with a mailer for example (somewhere in the world Mark Penn just got a big 'ol stiffy).

Your definitely right that D-trip would not want to make their presence too obvious. Maybe funnel some cash to the Wyoming Dem state party if that's legal. The point I'm trying to make is that It would be nice if they could show at least a little support, however small that may be.  


[ Parent ]
Anyone know how neighboring ID-01 is looking?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I think Gary told the DCCC to stay out
It is puzzling that the DCCC has not spent any money here, especially since it is both cheap and Gary was on the original red to blue list.  Given the polls putting Gary consistently at around 44 since May, the only reasonable explanation is that his campaign told them to stay out.

I've read that like in 2006, Trauner has resisted running any negative ads.  While that might be nuts in other states, in Wyoming he might need to do that to win as a Democrat in Wyoming.  There's a reason is personal favorables are so good according to both R2K and M-D.


Does anyone else
think Trauner is tailor made to be a 2010 Gubernatorial candidate? While Freudenthal could always run against Lummis, who seems to have rather weak favorables. But seriously, I think Trauner is the only Democrat with any shot of making a race out of the open Governorship in 2010.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
If I had been advising Trauner...
I would have told him the exact same thing.  Wyomingites don't like to send Democrats to Washington, but they have no problem electing them governor.  He would have been a strong candidate.  I wouldn't have run for House, but I give him credit for having the guts to try.  I hope he wins, but if he loses another really close contest, he could probably be good to get the governor's nomination, even with two the two losses.  

[ Parent ]
If Freudenthal had any interest in running
I think he would have challenged Barrasso for the Senate seat.  He would have had a big upper-hand in that race.  Doesn't look like he wants to move to D.C.

[ Parent ]
they begged him to run
From my understanding, Schumer tried hard to get him in.  He just didn't want to move to Washington.  I like Gov. Dave a lot, but he has done zilch to build up Democrats in Wyoming.  He has not even endorsed Trauner this cycle!  Last cycle, I think he did so with a week left.  

Additionally, when he was given that list of three names for Craig Thomas' replacement, he picked Barrasso, easily the best nominee and the one who would be hardest to beat in an election (not that Democrats would have had an awesome shot at being any GOPer for a Senate seat in WY).  Gov. Dave has a mixed record of helping out his party, which is a shame.


[ Parent ]
a couple of things with that
Freudenthal has been nothing if not cautious, but he has done what he can. As for not running for Senate in 2008, I think it was more because he wanted to serve out the remainder of his term as Governor. Two, as for appointing Barrasso, I was happy with that because he picked the least terrible of the three choices, and actually picked the slightly more moderate, less outspoken conservative zealot, always good when you consider he knew Democrats would not be able to mount a strong challenge to whoever he appointed. Though I must say I don't like the coy, 'we'll see', triangulating way in which he endorses Democrats and the fact he still hasn't endorsed Trauner though that would likely cost little support. And it has been true that compared to other state Dems like Sebelius and Rendell, Vilsack and Napilitano, even Richardson, Freudenthal has done little to nothing to aggresively fight and rebuild the state party. Though this year he appears to be fighting early for an ally in the State House who is having a tough reelection, and he's fighting for another Democrat who has a good shot at picking up an open seat in the State House. But as far as infrastructure and a widespread campaigner, he hasn't done enough and he usually does too little too late.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]

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