I'm feeling more and more confident ...

That we will see a net gain of 3 seats in  FL this year.  FL-24 is all but locked up, the 8th and 21st seem to be leaning our way and the 25th is no worse than a 50/50 shot.  If we take all 4 of those and drop Mahoney's seat the republicans will only have a 13-12 edge in the FL delegation.  Considering they drew the map in 2002 with an 18-7 or 19-6 republican delegation in mind that's pretty damn good.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 23:39:19 PM UTC

Love that red to blue in 08 and ...

...love the trend in so many of those other districts. If only this had been a Democratic priority four, eight, twelve years ago.

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by: Meteor Blades @ Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 23:58:07 PM UTC

Nice numbers!

Hopefully we'll take the 8th (Puerto Rican turnout is key!), 21st, 24th, and 25th districts. Republicans are spending massively on these South Florida races. It seems every commercial I see is either Lincoln calling Raul corrupt or Mario calling Garcia "Enron Joe." These are definitely two very close ones and the DCCC just went up in them. The 24th district should be a pickup.

I'll be one of the few Democrats voting in the 12th district. :P We're trying to get Nancy Daley elected to be the 2nd Democratic commissioner in Polk County. Before 2006, there were none, if we pick up this one it will be two additions in two elections. Florida is going blue from top to bottom, at all parts of the ballot.

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by: Progressive America @ Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 23:59:10 PM UTC

Few Dems voting in the 12th?

The 12th has more dems that republicans in it.  Ya, I know a large numbers are DINOS who will vote for Howdy Doody.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 00:09:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah I know...

few real Dems then. There's a chance the district will shift over the next decade, however. The Puerto Rican immigration is also occuring in the northern parts of the 12th district and I expect Democrats will win the youth vote in the district by a fairly nice margin. There's a new 40,000 student engineering university going up, as well, so we'll see if that has an effect in the future.

What to do with Putnam, hopefully he'll crash out of leadership after Republicans lose this election badly.

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by: Progressive America @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 00:23:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

40,000 student engineering university?

I hadn't heard of that.  That's a pretty damn big college.  What is it, a new state college or new branch of another school?  The only other major engineering school in FL is Florida A&M which is a majority black school.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 00:49:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any idea what city it would be in?

I've tried to find it but no dice. A location could help narrow the search for info.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:14:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahhh

Thought it was engineering, but apparently hightech and applied science. Still sounds like something that will attract more liberal-minded people. It also says 16,000 but I've also heard 40,000 thrown around in a few articles. Since the time of this particular article, Crist has approved the campus and they've been throwing money at it. It will be part of USF and is being built at the I-4/Polk Parkway intersection.

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by: Progressive America @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:15:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's more information

http://www.poly.usf.edu/AboutU...

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by: Progressive America @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:16:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good news.

I'm comforted to know that higher education systems are still expanding. Whether 16,000 or 40,000, this is good news either way.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:26:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm in the 12th as well.

Here's to hoping one day we get rid of Putnam.

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by: wmlawman @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 00:56:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rooney family split between parties?

http://blog.aflcio.org/2008/10...

This is weird.  Beloved Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney has endorsed Obama and is actively campaigning for him.  Weird considering his relative Tom Rooney is going to be the next republican congressman for FL-16.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 00:54:15 AM UTC

Does this mean there's a chance

Could the Rooney about to get elected in place of the philandering DINO turn out to be an OK sort of Repub, like Christ, I mean, maybe just wrong about a lot of stuff but not crazy? That would be a refreshing new voice in the House. If they don't muzzle him. And maybe he's rich enough they can't muzzle him.

I'm looking for a sprout in the scorched earth, like the little green thing in Walle, in hopes of seeing a reborn opposition party that can play an honorable role in our civil society when the rubble from this soon-to-be-crushed reichtwing rabble has been removed.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:15:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doesn't sound like it

After reading his website it sounds like he's a cookie-cutter conservative republican.  This can be either a good or bad thing.  It's good in that the 16th is only moderately conservative and may allow us to beat him in the future given the district seems to be trending slightly left.  It's bad in that he's going to be a big downgrade ideologically from both Mahoney AND Mark Foley.  For all Foley's faults, and there are many, he was probably the most moderate republican in Florida when he was in Congress.

At the very least Rooney sounds ethical and honest.  A big improvement over the last two reps from the 16th, even if I don't like the guy's stands on the issues.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:28:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is the percentage breakdown for registered voters in FL

Democrats   = 42%
Republicans = 36%
Independent = 22%

From Dailykos (diary of kansasr):

For 2008 there are 11,247,634 registered voters; 2004 there were 10,301,290.

In 2008 the DEM advantage over REP is 4,722,076 to 4,064,301. There are 2,461,257 other or no party voters.

In 2004 the DEM advantage over REP was 4,261,249 to 3,892,492 with 2,148,030 other or no party voters.

The net gain for Democrats over Republicans is 289,018.

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by: GWCane85 @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:32:17 AM UTC

Unfortunately

Adjusting for DINOS it comes out to about a 2% voter advantage.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:44:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

Like that newly registered number though. Those people aren't likely to split their ticket. 200,000+ fresh votes for Barack and local/Fed Dems.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:58:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh I agree there

I did a quick analysis of the voter registration from 2 years ago versus what is is now earlier today and realized that most of the newly registered dems are from central and south FL areas that likely make them "real dems."  There aren't all that many newly registered dems from the panhandle and rural parts of central Florida.  

In fact the only district I could find in my analysis that gained far more republicans than democrats was FL-01.  That is great news considering most of those republicans will not be able to be dispursed into multiple districts during the next redistricting.  All they will do is make the 1st district even more batshit crazy than it already is.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:24:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

haha

yay! that's the only part of Florida I've ever visited. I stopped at a gas station and they had 'we love our president' postcards, and I just though... Really?... REALLY??? lol  

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by: Venslor @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 05:35:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey

I for one will happily see Florida tip D by any margin, even if it's by 51/48/1.

The Old D's that are now DINO are dying away.  LBJ and 1965 are not happening again, no matter how much they talk about it.  We're getting Gen Yers in return.  Seems like a good deal to me.

And the D/D-leaning trend is unlikely to end in December of this year, either.  So even if things screw up somewhat this year there does seem to be a start to serious reascent of the FDP.   '10 will likely look better in a bunch of districts and downticket in the state legislature races.

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by: Baystater @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:17:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baystater:

While we're on topic about Florida, I might add that the Red Sox just lost to the Rays. This really stinks. I was so hoping for a repeat win at the World Series.

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by: jpsrosa @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 04:00:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good news for me

There are quite a few RedSox fans where I work.  Man are they obnoxious.  A few years ago you heard nothing from tham, but now that they win a few World Series and championships in football and basketball they have essentially become the same as Yankee fans used to be.  Oh well, from now on I suspect their RedSox gear will join their Patriots gear in the closet and I'll only be seeing Celtics gear on casual day at work.  

The problem with baseball in Florida is that most native Floridians are not fans of the Florida teams.  I grew up and remain a Braves fan because they were all we had when I was growing up and were the closest thing to a Florida team.  If the Rays win the series it will make 3 World Series champs from Florida since 1997, yet our two teams still draw garbage attendence.  I'll guarantee if the Rays have a few more good years they will still have aweful attendence and will probably get relocated.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:48:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great news

We'll lose FL-16 (grrr) but I think FL-08 and FL-24 are looking better then even right now and we've got great shots in FL-21 and FL-25 and we also have a outside shot at FL-18. Those voter registration numbers make me think we've got a better shot that some think.

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by: Populista @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:02:35 AM UTC

I'd rather get rid of Mahoney than keep him

same goes with Bill Jefferson.  Just a small price to pay for making our Democratic brand more robust!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 20:04:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Annette Taddeo in FL-18

Damn, she looks to be in a good position now. I know the Scientology-enabling incumbent has been fairly popular there. But in this election people will be voting for change, not for good constituent services, and the change candidate is the Democrat.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:19:12 AM UTC

Hopefully we'll gain 08, 18, 21, 24, and 25

and lose 16.  They'll probably keep 13, 12, 15, 10, 09, 07, and 07, although I'd argue that we have (really far) outside chances in most of those.

Also, I think the new endangered Dems list is as follows:
1. Tim "this is a sex scandal district anyway" Mahoney
2. Paul "why the heck is he doing so badly in a Democratic year" Kanjorski
3. Carol Shea-Porter
4. Nick "no one knows what's going with this race anymore, after 2006's craziness and 2008's hurricane" Lampson
5. Chris Carney

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 20:07:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]