Research 2000 for The Great Orange Satan (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (44)
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 50 (53)
Don Young (R-inc): 44 (39)
(MoE: ±4%)
Kos says that "we got spoiled by months of big leads in both these races", but aside from a quick flurry of post-indictment polls showing Begich with a bounce, the Senate race has been close for a while now. (The at-large House seat less so, but it's clear that Young is on the upswing.)
If you thought that beating these two tough old bastards would be a walk in the park, I'm afraid that you underestimated the ability of Alaska Republicans to rally around their own.
