It’s Official: A Wave Has Formed (74 Republican Seats at Risk)

Very few could have expected a wave bigger than 2006, yet it appears that Republicans are in danger, even in Republican leaning districts.  Interestingly, a large number of these endangered Republican seats are in competitive presidential states.  The list shows the following:

– Mortgage foreclosures and economic slowdown is exposing candidates in CA, FL, MI, and NV.

– The Northeast and Midwest are gradually pulling away from Republican, even moderate Republicans.

– Open Seats and the weakest Republican incumbents are being thrown to the sharks.  The NRCC is only spending to protect extreme ideologues, including open seats in AL and NJ which feature far right candidates.  Obviously the Republican Party simply hasn’t got the message: American’s want less partisanship.

Here are 23 Republican seats which are heading into the Democratic column:

AK (AL) – Young

AZ (1st) – Open Seat

CO (4th) – Musgrave

FL (8th) – Keller

FL (21st) – Lincoln Diaz-Balart

FL (24th) – Feeney

ID (1st) – Sali

IL (11th) – Open Seat

MI (7th) – Walberg

MI (9th) – Knollenberg

MN (3rd) – Open Seat

NC (8th) – Hayes

NJ (7th) – Open Seat

NM (1st) – Open Seat

NV (3rd) – Porter

NY (13th) – Open Seat

NY (25th) – Open Seat

NY (29th) – Open Seat

OH (1st) – Chabot

OH (15th) – Open Seat

OH (16th) – Open Seat

PA (3rd) – English

VA (11th) – Open Seat

The NRCC is spending heavily on behalf of Musgrave, English, and Diaz-Balart.  They are also doing mailing in OH 15th.  The Club for Growth is protecting Walberg and the NM Republican Party is coming in strong for NM 1.

Here are the 9 endangered Democratic seats:

AL (5th) – Open Seat

GA (8th) – Marshall

KS (2nd) – Boyda

LA (6th) – Cazayoux

NH (1st) – Shea-Porter

PA (10th) – Carney

PA (11th) – Kanjorski

TX (22nd) – Lampson

WI (8th) – Kagen

The NRCC is spending heavily in AL 5 and against Cazayoux and Kagen.  Boyda’s race has had only one outside expenditure from the Credit Union Assoc. on behalf of Jenkins.  Shea-Porter is appearing more safe in large part to massive spending by the DCCC.  Marshall makes the list for the first time due to backlash at home against his vote for the bailout.  Carney is looking more safe, but Kanjorski’s problems in the neighboring district create problems for Carney.  Finally, Lampson may indeed pull an upset in Texas.  Olson is now being portrayed as a Yankee, due to him voting in Connecticut only years ago.  Seems that Yankee tactic worked very well in the past when another Nutmeger ran for Congress in Texas and lost: George W. Bush.  Lampson has a chance finally.

Now the obvious.  Mahoney’s seat has been abandoned.  Making it one guaranteed Democratic seat lost.

As a result of Obama’s surgence and McCain’s fumbling and uneasiness on both Wall Street and Main Street, the number of Republicans being exposed has increased, while the number of Democrats previously exposed (ex: Mitchell, McNerney, Childers, and Walz) has decreased.  The reason why the incumbents of 2006 are more protected may be explained under two theories:

1. The NRCC did a poor recruiting job in several districts (Shuler, Space, Courtney, and Hodes)

2. It’s difficult to blame a freshman incumbent for problems that originated previous to their arrival.  Many Americans view the problems starting with Bush’s arrival.  Republicans, not Democrats, are the individuals being held culpable as a result.

Here are the 51 additional Republican seats at severe risk of being lost or swept away in the ensuing tide:

AL (2nd) – Open Seat

AL (3rd) – Rogers

AZ (3rd) – Shadegg

CA (3rd) – Lungren

CA (4th) – Open Seat

CA (26th) – Dreier

CA (46th) – Rohrbacher

CA (50th) – Bilbray

CT (4th) – Shays

FL (10th) – Young

FL (12th) – Putnam

FL (15th) – Open Seat

FL (18th) – Ros-Lehtninen

FL (25th) – Mario Diaz-Balart

IL (10th) – Kirk

IL (13th) – Biggert

IN (3rd) – Souder

IN (4th) – Buyer

IA (4th) – Latham

IA (5th) – King

KY (2nd) – Open Seat

LA (1st) – Scalise

LA (7th) – Boustany

MD (1st) – Open Seat

MD (6th) – Bartlett

MN (6th) – Bachmann

MO (6th) – Graves

MO (9th) – Open Seat

NE (2nd) – Terry

NV (3rd) – Heller

NC (5th) – Foxx

NC (10th) – McHenry

NJ (3rd) – Open Seat

NJ (5th) – Garrett

NM (2nd) – Open Seat

NY (26th) – Open Seat

OH (2nd) – Schmidt

OH (14th) – LaTourette

PA (6th) – Gerlach

PA (15th) – Dent

PA (18th) – Murphy

SC (1st) – Brown

SC (2nd) – Wilson

TX (7th) – Culberson

TX (10th) – McCaul

VA (2nd) – Drake

VA (5th) – Goode

VA (10th) – Wolf

WA (8th) – Reichert

WV (2nd) – Capito

WY (AL) – Open Seat

The list is diverse and includes races which are moving against Democrats (Bilbray, Ros-Lehtinen, and Capito).  

It also features races in Republican leaning districts where the DCCC is spending heavily (MO 9th and NY 26th).  

The list also includes extreme ideologues (Bachmann, King, Garrett, Foxx, McHenry, and Schmidt).

And the always inclusive moderates from the Northeast and Midwest (Shays, Gerlach, Biggert, Dent, and Kirk).

There are also the races that very few would have considered competitive, due to the Republican leanings of the district.  In each of these races the Democrat has raised massive funds (Goode, Culberson, McCaul, and Shadegg).

Then there are the challenger from 2006 back for seconds (Reichert, Wolf, and Wyoming AL).

And of course the self-funding races (Scalise and Brown).

Finally, there are the races featuring incumbents representing Democratic leaning districts (Latham, Putnam, KY 2nd, Rogers, and Boustany).

And one could never forget the perennial weak incumbents whom always struggle, even in Republican districts (Souder, Terry, and Drake).

Finally, we have incumbents whom have been in Washington for decades and if this is change year, then they could certainly be gone (Dreier, Young, and Bartlett).