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Canadian Election Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:04 PM EDT


The polls are coming to a close in the western-most reaches of Canada right about now, where voters have gone to the polls to decide the fate of the first Conservative (minority) government since 1993.

Canadian PM Stephen Harper figured that he could squeeze out a majority government with this fall election call, but he hasn't had the smoothest campaign. In his favor, the Liberals aren't exactly burning down the house, either. If I were a betting man, I'd say he retains his minority -- with losses in Quebec and a few modest gains elsewhere. But we'll see.

Wikipedia has a good list of races to watch here.

Results are available at CBC.ca and Elections Canada.

UPDATE: Yup, it's another Conservative government -- but it's not yet clear whether he'll have enough for a majority or not.

UPDATE (12:41AM): Well this is something -- in my home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP candidate has pulled ahead of the longtime Conservative incumbent by 1 vote with 200 of 223 polls counted. It would be stunning if the Conservatives lost a seat in Alberta.

12:46AM: Wow, NDPer Linda Duncan is up by 164 votes now with 18 polls outstanding.

1:34AM: Duncan wins! Oh man, what an amazing finish. And you have got to love this:

Shortly after Conservative incumbent Rahim Jaffer gave his victory speech Tuesday evening, his campaign handlers yanked him from the party as it became clear the race wasn't over, that New Democrat Linda Duncan had pulled ahead in the polls.

Haw-haw!

James L. :: Canadian Election Results Thread
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Come on, you Canada nerds!
James put this thread up at the special request of you Canada-philes. Where's the chatter? :)

CBC projecting Minority govenment


Ugh...
I live in Toronto and am not surprised at this minority government.  Harper cost himself the majority by pissing off the Quebecers.  

Looks like lots of turncoats are getting ousted like Turner and Khan.

James - Sorry about the Grits getting shut out in Alberta yet...again.  sigh.

We need to find our Barack Obama dammit.


Bernier getting re-elected is a travesty...after the scandal and all...


Conservatives 11 seats short of majority
Conservatives have 144 seats, with 155 needed for a majority.

Liberals have 76, Bloq Quebecois 49, NDP 36, Independent 3, Greens 0.

Conseratives only have 37% of the vote, compared with 52.7% combined for the Liberals, NDP and Greens.  So, if there was proportional representation or some form of IRV in Canada, there would be a very different result.



That's what my think is
I don't much about the canadian system - but wouldn't the minority Conservatives have a hard time with the Liberals + NDP and (some) of the BQ opposing them?  

[ Parent ]
Coaliton?
Is there any chance that Libs, NDP, and Queb might form a coalition?  I really hate seeing another Harper admin!

Ha!
the Bloc Quebecois forming a coalition with the Libs? Not even when Pigs fly would that happen. Traditionally speaking, the Bloc's main enemy has always been the Libs and vice versa, although it's only recently that the Tories and even the NDP have become a threat to the Bloc.

[ Parent ]
Anyone else watching fundraising reports tonight?
People who reported today (IIRC)

NJ-03 (R+D)
IN-09 (R)
PA-10 (D)
PA-04 (D)
LA-04 (D)
FL-13 (D)
NE-02 (D)
ID-01 (D)
NC-08 (R)
MI-07 (R)

Big numbers all around really.  It's pretty nuts.  I only record total raised & Cash on hand, so I'd have to look through all of them again.  Biggest surprise was Minnick (ID-01) though.  I'll copy down his numbers here.  

3Q = $641,883 (+300K Personal Loan = 941K)
CTD = 1,992K (Including 300K personal loan)
COH = 177K


I should add the disclaimer
That I only look for races on my list.  Linda Ketner reported, but since she isn't on my list I didn't put her on the list.  Rep. Young (R-FL) reported today too, I believe.  Maybe others...

[ Parent ]
Nice
Minnick is a very good candidate.

I'm not seeing updated numbers for any of those candidates, where are you finding that?


[ Parent ]
Here is what I do
http://www.fec.gov/finance/dis...

Go here, then fill in the following:
-State: All

-Party Designation: Democratic Party (Or Republican party if you are searching for Repubs)

-Committee Type: House

-Report: October Quarterly

Date Filed: 10/14/2008 (Or 10/15/2008 which is when almost all of them will come up However, tomorrow, I just start searching last names of candidates and see what the newest report is)


[ Parent ]
Damn and blast, eh?
Thanks for putting this up. Disappointing. Do the Liberals and NDP have enough seats to form a coalition?

What does this mean now? Will Dion and Layton get kicked out out the leadership of their parties?  


Layton? Nah.
He was actually successful in winning 7-8 more seats for his party, though they did fall short of the 1988 high water mark of 43 NDP seats. Still, Layton served his party well and I bet if he steps down it will be of his own volition.

Dion, OTOH, is in deep sh*t now! The Liberals really bombed last night! Considering how unpopular PM Harper seems to be, the Tories shouldn't have gained seats while the Liberals totally collapsed everywhere outside of Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces. I'll be shocked if Dion actually survives as party leader.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Seeing the results more fully
Layton will probably stay on. Which is good, I like him.

Dion is a good guy but was a real disaster as a leadership candidate, I bet he gets replaced.


[ Parent ]
MD-01 Harris, reported already under 10/15
3Q report says...
3Q = $557K
CTD = $2,593K
COH = $749K

HA!  Thank you C4G


When the dust settles
James,

When the dust settles can you give us non-Canadians some seat by seat analysis and an overview of the impact of the election on Canadian politics post-election.

Back in 2002 I drove across Canada from Vancouver to Nova Scotia stopping at almost all of the Provincial capitols (I missed Toronto and St. John's).  Though I learned a bit talking to people all the Provincial capitol tours my knowledge is a little rusty and I am sure if you were to do what you do for US elections for the Canadian elections I and all your neighbors to the south would learn a lot.

Thanks,
Evan


I was curious about this as well
It looks like the Conservatives and the New Dems (which I hope aren't as loathsome as our New Dems) made ground on Liberal turf, but I can't find a good source that breaks down where and how this happened.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
our New Dems are very different
They are a left wing, socialist party (in the same sense as Labour in the UK, or social democrats in Scandinavia)  -- the folks who were responsible for bringing universal health care to Canada.

The Liberals are a slightly left of centre party, they'd be pretty comfortable as US Democrats. They suffered this election from their leader Steohane Dion being rather weak and from some poor strategic decisions. This was their worst popular vote % ever --- Dion will be gone as leader relatively soon.

The Bloc Quebecois can never be part of government -- they are in favour of Quebec separation, so no party can bring them into an official governing coalition. They do often cut deals with parties to vote with them based on what they consider to be Quebec's best interests.

Harper gambled on the possibility of getting a majority with a snap election, and he failed in that regard. However, he increased his seat total enough (mainly through some lucky breaks and divided opposition) and as a result is in a stronger position.

The Liberals will be in disarray for a while as they deal with incriminations and leadership questions. The NDP will (even with the 4th place # of seats) feel emboldened by the results and will try to act as the de facto opposition in Parliament while the Liberals are positioning themselves among various leadership candidates.



[ Parent ]
Thanks For The Thread James
Unfortunately I was out celebrating at my local Liberal candidate's headquarters, where she managed to unseat a floor crossing Conservative incumbent. Please join me in congratulating Bonnie Crombie (www.bonniecrombie.ca). And it's great to hear that in Alberta the Tories DIDN'T make a total sweep!

But overall these results are disappointing, and I noticed the voter turnout was much lower than the last election. Hopefully, you Democrats will do much better in November, which you are obviously going to do.


Hooray for ousting that loser Wajid Khan...!


[ Parent ]
I Concur With That!
Bye Bye Khan!

Na Na Na Na
Na Na Na Na
Hey Hey Hey
GOODBYE!


[ Parent ]
Can someone explain the Canadian system?
Aren't the three opposition parties all left-leaning?  And if that is the case why wouldn't they just form their own  government?  

It's a long & sorted story...
The Bloc doesn't like that Liberals oppose Quebec secession. The NDP thinks of the Liberals as too centrist. And I guess now that the Tories are in the minority again (although that minority is larger), neither of the minor left parties feels compelled to form an official alliance with the Liberals.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
My friend from Toronto ....
.... explained the four major parties to me this way: You have the right/center-right, the center-left, the left, and the French.  Try to make a coalition out of that!!

[ Parent ]
all left leaning, but...
Parliamentary tradition is pretty strong that the party that has the most seats is given the opportunity to form the government. Since the Conservatives are only about 10-12 seats short of a majority, it would be unheard of them to be denied that.

While they are generally left on issues, the Bloc Quebecois is less ideological and more concerned with Quebec issues. Because they favour separation, they won't/can't be part of government (the equivalent with be something like Lincoln having Jefferson Davis in his cabinet while Davis was advocating southern succession...can't happen).

The NDP and the Liberals could form a coalition if they had enough seats between them to form a majority -- but they are far from that. They have a visceral dislike/disdain for each other...both parties blame the other for taking their votes, and cooperation between the two would be very difficult.

The Liberals will be spending the next year or so fighting internally and selecting a new party leader, and then attempting to rebuild -- as a result, they will need to avoid a new election for the next couple of years at least - as a result, the Conservatives can count on being able to govern for until at least 2011 before there is a new election.



[ Parent ]
Yea...
The Conservative party is actually a combination of the old Progressive Conservative Party (Right-Centre) and the Canadian Alliance Party (Very right by Canadian standards).  

Let's hope the Liberals will take this ass-kicking seriously and put together a better platform to run on.  

Dion just wasn't a guy who exuded natural leadership abilities.  Let's hope the next leader will do better!


[ Parent ]
Interesting picture
I second the request above for an explanation of this from James later on, particularly as the demographics look interesting.

I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge of Canada is pretty rudimentary, but it seems like the NDP have a peculiar demographic base. They seem to have most success in compact districts that appear to be large cities, or in much larger and more rural districts out west. Is this based on monopolising the native vote, or do they also have some kind of rural populist appeal?

I also find it interesting that Labour seems to monopolise Toronto and suburbs (I'd have guessed that such areas would either go Tory or NDP, depending on wealth) and that whereas in competitive Western seats only one of the Libs and the NDP runs strong, in Ontario there appears to be many more three-way marginals.

For that matter, I'm also intrigued by NDP weakness in the east, conservative weakness in Newfoundland and a whole host of other things.


Well, the NDP grew out of Saskatchewan
i.e. the most Rural province of them all. This was examplified when in 1988, the NDP won 10 of 14 seats in SK, whereas by 2004, in large part due to eroding strength and new electoral districts (Regina/Saskatoon are both split into 4 districts+suburbs+small town rural areas), as well especially by the new Conservative party, which maintains its pro-Western orientation that the Canadian Alliance once had (the NDP used to be a Western protest-vote party). The NDP's success in Atlantic Canada, while not quite as good as under Alexa McDonough in 1997, is historically pretty high in support, especially with the additional historic foothold gain in Newfoundland.

The NDP has always been a popular choice in British Columbia, minus 1993-2000 (due to mismanagement by the NDP Provincial government), but, especially with the loss of Surrey North, they seem to be constrainted to Vancouver and the Western eco-friendly coast.

The victory in Alberta is great, if only for there to be SOME diversity in this tory-ridden delegation. The NDP has always been historically strong in Manitoba, primarily in Winnipeg and the North. The NDP also, for the first time ever, elected an MP during a general election in Quebec, but unfortunately narrowly missed the Gatineau riding (the BQ candidate only recieved 32%, probably due to a late surge of support to the Liberals in Quebec).

The NDP has always historically been weak in Ontario, though they seem to have captured primarily working-class  towns in lower Ontario (Windsor, Thunderbay) as well western Ontario.

For any real future success of the NDP, it requires it to regain its popularity back in Sasketchewan, win over both left-wing Anglophones and Francophones (which is basically the majority of Montréal) and gain a greater foothold in Montréal, but most of all, begin winning Toronto.

The Liberals should drop their tradition of making their leader a Quebecer (Dion, Martin, Chretien, Trudeau) and put someone from Ontario (or perhaps Ralph Goodale of SK) in order to win all of the support they have lost in English-speaking Urban centers in Ontario, Manitoba and BC. Sorry, you just CANNOT have a leader who speaks poor English, cannot win much in Quebec itself, and still have strong support in English Canada.

Oh, and the Greens have to stop spoiling the vote.


[ Parent ]
So after next January...
The United States will be the only one of the three major North American countries to have the left-wing party controlling government.  Weird stuff.


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