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OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5

by: James L.

Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 3:42 PM EDT


This one isn't available online yet, but the Portland-based KATU-TV just aired the results of a new poll that they commissioned of the Oregon Senate race. Let's have a look.

SurveyUSA (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 46 (44)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (42)
Dave Brownlow (C): 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Check out the Pollster.com trend (which does not yet include this poll). Call it a downward spiral for El Gordo, if you will:

UPDATE: Crosstabs available here. And here's a bonus finding for you: Obama leads McCain by 57-40 in the same poll. (H/T: skywaker9)
James L. :: OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5
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OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5 | 22 comments
Did anyone really doubt Merkley had the Big Mo?
Now he clearly does.   Smith is going down!
Are these post-debate results?
I'm really curious about public opinion in the aftermath of the Oct. 10th debate. If this is inclusive of those results, things look good. There's actually another debate tonight in Medford, so we'll hope the streak continues!
[ Parent ]
Expect a OR-SEN Rasmussen poll today ot tomorrow
They came out with a OR-Pres poll days ago so a Senate poll should be forthcoming.
Also expect a Hibbits poll soon
Hibbits is the gold standard of Oregon polling (similar to the Field poll in OR).  He usually releases a poll about this far out.
[ Parent ]
Maybe tomorrow
But not today. Here's what they have on tap for this evening:

6 p.m. Eastern:           Virginia President
6 p.m. Eastern:           North Carolina President
6 p.m. Eastern:           Missouri President
6 p.m. Eastern:           Ohio President
6 p.m. Eastern:           Florida President

[ Parent ]
My guesses
VA - Obama by 3
NC - Obama by 4
FL - Obama by 1
MO - Obama by 4
OH - Obama by 2
[ Parent ]
It is Rasmussen so
VA - O +1
NC - Tie
FL - Tie
MO - O +1
OH - M +1
[ Parent ]
The last set of Ras
polls from those states was, VA-Obama +2, NC-Obama +1, FL-Obama+3, Ohio-McCain +1, and MO-Obama +3.

I don't expect to see too much change from that.

[ Parent ]
Actual numbers
VA-Obama +3
NC-Obama Tie
FL-Obama +5
OH-Obama +2
MO-Obama +3
[ Parent ]
Good numbers
Especially good to see Florida is holding for Obama.  If he wins Florida there is zero chance he loses the race.
[ Parent ]
will brownlow really get that much?
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Maybe some Republicans are upset
That Gordo is using Kerry/Kennedy/Obama in his ads and running such a mushy middle campaign. Who knows.
[ Parent ]
They were already pissed at him
For taking a non-racist immigration position.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Mary Starett, who was the Constitution Party nominee for Governor, got 4% in 2006 because Saxton was not seen as far right enough for many Rs....Granted that race wasn't as close as Kulongoski won by 8.
[ Parent ]
I'll wager yes
A lot of right-wingers already view Smith as a RINO because of his breaks with the GOP on Iraq and Medicaid. Throw in the revelations about his employing undocumented immigrants at his frozen pea factory, and you've got open revolt on the nativist right flank.
[ Parent ]
It's possible, but not likely
Brownlow is appealing to the disaffecteds, but when it comes right down to coloring in that dot for him, who knows if they'll really pull the trigger.

The real key in Oregon is going to be GOTV.  Obama and Merkley's field operation here is very, very good.

I would caution that polling during the primary seemed to be somewhat Portland-centric, so we should definitely NOT sit on our laurels.  Smith could do well outside of Multnomah County--which would make it very tough for Jeff.

[ Parent ]
The Vote By Mail System
How does the vote-by-mail system Oregon uses effect the campaigns' GOTV efforts?  It seems as though it would be a tad more difficult simply because it's different, but that's a visceral reaction without any evidence to back it up.
[ Parent ]
It makes it easier
We know when you've turned in your ballot (since they verify the signatures) so its effective a targeting exercise spread out over 2.5 weeks.  Greatly increases turnout.
[ Parent ]
Crosstabs out
Wow - Obama by 17
Do those crosstabs pass the smell test Sky?  A 9 point voter edge for Dems doesn't seem too high does it?
[ Parent ]
Makes relative sense
Kerry won Oregon by 4, and lost 3 nationwide.

If Obama's winning by 10 points nationally, as some polls have him doing, he's performing 13 points better than Kerry, so he wins Oregon by 17. It is a tad bit high for him, though... I would say actual numbers would be more like a 10-12 point win at this point. Note that Nate Silver's regression model has Obama+18, and overall model O+15, so this isn't much off.

[ Parent ]
That's about what it is
We have between a 10-12% edge actually.
[ Parent ]
OR-Sen: Merkley Leads by 5 | 22 comments

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