FL-25: Garcia Surging in New Internal Poll

Hamilton Campaigns for Joe Garcia (10/8-9, likely voters, 7/7-13 in parens):

Joe Garcia (D): 42 (33)

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45 (55)

Undecided: 13 (13)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

That’s some big movement for Joe Garcia, and right in line with two other recent polls of this race. Carlos McDonald had Diaz-Balart up by 43-41, while Research 2000 pegged the race at 45-41 for Diaz-Balart. There’s one big difference between this poll and R2K’s poll — and that’s the Presidential preference of the district.

Research 2000 gave McCain a 53-38 margin here, indicating no coattails whatsoever to help Garcia. This internal poll, however, finds Obama with a 47-43 lead in the district — up considerably from a 40-49 deficit in July. Bear in mind that this is an R+4.4 district, albeit one that has seen a dramatic Democratic voter registration surge.

In any case, we now have three recent polls showing Diaz-Balart lingering in the mid-40s, which is not a comfortable place for any incumbent to be.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.