This is an R+6, military-heavy district that is often seen as a something of a bellwether for statewide contests (and according to this poll, McCain is leading Obama by 51-42), though keep in mind that even Jim Webb lost this district by a few points in 2006. This district is about 20% black, and that population is more dispersed and difficult to turn out than in other parts of the state -- and, according to the Cook Political Report, African-American turnout has been in the 10-15% range of the electorate in recent election. The black turnout is pretty key to Nye's chances, and it's hard to gauge this poll without knowing its racial breakdown. A recent Nye internal pegged this race at five points.
And over in West Virginia... Research 2000 (10/7-8, likely voters):
Anne Barth (D): 39
Shelley Moore Capito (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±5%)
Barth has a lot of work to do, clearly, but at least the spread is a lot closer than the "2-1 Capito lead" that Stuart Rothenberg was writing about last month (presumably he was talking about Capito's own polling).
Most interesting, though, are the Presidential numbers: McCain leads Obama by 48-41 in the 2nd District. That's not quite the 57-42 win that Bush posted here in 2004.
