how much are our safe incumbents giving the DCCC?

We need to be making Use It Or Lose It calls to the deadbeats.

Same goes for the Senate--I heard Harkin gave $250K to DSCC in late September, but I do not have confirmation of that yet. We need our safe incumbents to give the DCCC and DSCC the resources to win these winnable seats.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 03:59:09 AM UTC

No idea.

Chet Edwards recently gave $100K, and Rahm kicked in another $50K. Ron Klein kicked in another $100K recently (on top of $100K given earlier in the cycle).

It would be really helpful if the DCCC would make this information public. Why they choose not to is beyond me.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:16:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

it's a disgrace

that so many incumbents do so little when Chet Edwards, who is far from the most secure incumbent, gives $100K.

I would particularly like to know what my own Congressman Leonard Boswell has given to the DCCC. The DCCC has spent serious money to help him in several previous cycles. He is safe now and facing an underfunded opponent.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:54:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its Time...

desmoinesdem and I were on opposite sides of Leonard's primary, but yup, Leonard is after all a good party guy and its time he ponys up some dough.

Its Time for all the incumbents sitting on a fat bank account to chip in... We really need the blogosphere to put the word out on the caucus deadbeats on who hasnt paid up their dues!

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by: inhoc75 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 06:43:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

WA-08

Has the DCCC given up on WA-08 then? It seems their expenditures in the district are very low for what was such a close race in 2006.

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by: Aviram @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:12:12 AM UTC

Well

They're just getting started, and I know that they're going up on the air very shortly.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:13:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same old, same old.

   The only new races for the DCCC are WA-08 and VA-02.

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:40:14 AM UTC

And MO-06

I know they dropped a mailer here the other day, but this is their first significant expenditure.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:42:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True.

   And those three are all good choices.  I have to say, though, that I am shocked that the DCCC has decided to go after Shadegg.  The polls must pretty awesome for them to get involved in that district.  

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:46:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But the polls must be awful

For Giffords and Mitchell to justify how much money they're dumping into their districts.
I thought that Tim Bee was pretty much done after he lost Kolbe's endorsement and he let TPD help pay for a Bush fundraiser within a couple of weeks of each other.  So either her reelection numbers are awful or a couple people in the DCCC owe her some big favors and she's holding on to her COH for a statewide run in another cycle or two.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:21:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If they were that bad for Giffords

I think they'd be dumping in a lot more money than what they've been spending -- like, try Carol Shea-Porter levels.

The DCCC is playing it safe, lending these freshmen an assist against tough opponents by doing some of the "dirty work" (ie. running attack ads) for them. I would guess that both Giffords and Mitchell are ahead, but not by enough of a margin that would make the DCCC feel comfortable enough to cut them loose.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:38:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inoculation

My theory is that the DCCC wants to run up the margin in those seats so that future challengers are scared away.  If Tim Bee doesn't just lose but gets absolutely crushed then others will think twice before going up against Giffords.

Or maybe the DCCC is just trying to avoid any unpleasant surprises from McCain's coattails.

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by: WestCoastMC @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:44:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh I keep trying to forget McSame is my Senator

Oh well, he'll be retired/defeated by Napolitano/Goddard/Giffords/my cat soon enough.  I guess McCain's coattails should help Bee a little, but I don't think I know anyone whose voting for McCain who would be open to Obama if it was generic Republican on the ticket.  Then again, I haven't been in AZ (or the states) since late August.

Also, I guess they could be trying to ruin Bee's career. If he manages to keep it close, he can probably rebound and become a strong contender in a less-Democratic year, especially if this seat is open in a cycle or two.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 07:04:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh. My. God.

That's a insane amount of money. Does Alaska really need THAT much?

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 04:59:29 AM UTC

DCCC Spending

There appears to be some vulnerable incumbents which the DCCC are not attacking.  In media markets that overlap districts the DCCC might be worthwhile running ads which attack two incumbents together while linking them both to Bush and his failed policies.  Such districts include:

FL - Keller and Feeney in the Orlando market
FL - Both Diaz-Balart's in Miami
NE/IA - Lee Terry and Steve King in Omaha
NJ/PA - Dent and Garrett in Allentown
OH - Chabot and Schmidt in Cincinnati
VA/WV - Capito and Wolf in Martinsburg

The DCCC may also want to make buys in less expensive markets:

ID - Sali in Boise
IN - Souder in Fort Wayne
IA - Latham in Mason City
MN - Bachmann in Saint Cloud
NV - Heller in Elko
NC - McHenry in Hickory
VA - Goode in Danville
WY - Trauner in Casper and Laramie

Just to force the NRCC to worry about 20 additional seats is well worth it.

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by: bushy08 @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:43:04 AM UTC

You mean Lummis in WY

Also, is there a way to hit Ros-Lehtinen at the same time as the DB brothers?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 05:56:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCC Spending Can Backfire

Having explicit DCCC involvement in some parts of the country can be bad for the candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if Minnick (ID-01) and Trauner (WY-AL) had asked the DCCC to stay out of direct ad buys; being connected to the national party is not an advantage in those districts.

If it's Trauner or Minnick v. the other candidat, they can win. If it's D v. R, they lose. In such instances, it may be better for the DCCC to refrain from ad expenditures, even if they're phenomenally cheap districts.

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by: dsimon @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 13:16:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

St. Cloud

There is not such thing as a St. Cloud television market.  (I grew up there.) Just the Twin Cities. St. Cloud is in 3 counties and 1 of them is officially in the Twin Cities Metro area.

Of course, there is radio and print.

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by: ChuckInSeattle @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 15:30:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OT: CQ changes 6 ratings

CO-04
Toss Up <----- Leans Republican

FL-25
Lean Republican <----- Republican Favored

IN-03
Republican Favored <----- Safe Republican

---
Some reason cq isn't working anymore.  

I remember PA-03 and PA-11 moved to No Clear Favorites.. But I didn't catch that last one.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 13:18:20 PM UTC

Sorry for the double post

CQ is working now, MO-Gov
Leans Democratic <---- Toss Up

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 13:29:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NRCC bailing on OH-15 and OH-16

a strategy of holding a line around a few select races rather than try to keep up with the DCCC across the board

Yep, they're bailing out against Kilroy and Boccieri and are trying to save Chabot and Mean Jean. Given the results from last nights insta-polls, I think the DCCC should go on the offensive against BOTH of them. The Democratic "brand" has gone wayyy up over the last few days. Same media market, why not?

The D Trip tends to have  a lot of inertia. The polls show that Boccieri has a comfortable lead and Kilroy is ahead. So put some resources into OH-01 and OH-02.  

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by: ohio_anon @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 13:23:12 PM UTC

MT-AL

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Democratic Candidate Driscoll promised to vote for Republican incumbent Rehberg.  Awesome job buddy.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 14:37:09 PM UTC

Real nice

So the Republican Senate nominee is really a Green/Commie and the Democratic House nominee is really a Republican.  That makes sense...

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 15:42:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Montana wins the award for state with the strangest race dynamics.

NY-13 wins the award for most messed up race (at a far second place is ID-Sen).  And ID-01 wins the award for worst incumbent (OH-02 close behind).  OK-Sen wins the award for most evil incumbent (GA-Sen is a runner up).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 18:14:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh great

last we heard of him was him taking a backpacking trip.

Great!

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 18:38:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-08 - The punches just won't stop

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Grayson mailed out an article on Keller's leaving his wife for his congressional staffer, hitting him as hypocritical on family values.  This race started out ugly, and has gone nowhere but down.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 15:33:35 PM UTC