I really thought we'd have an easier time in

New Jersey.

I hope Adler pulls it out.

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by: wmlawman @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 19:35:53 PM CDT

NJ-03 and NJ-07 are bothering me

Those are the only two open seats that we just cant seem to get a hold of.  I am hoping that as usual, the undecideds go heavily Democratic enough for us to win both seats.  

I also think we have a real shot now at the Indiana governors race.  If the DGA could pour some money in there, we could pick that up and be in great shape for redistricting in 2011.  

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by: BillNolan @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 19:41:19 PM CDT

NH-02 Numbers?

Is Hodes 35, Horn 18 correct? That's an awful lot of undecideds (47).

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by: dsimon @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 19:44:07 PM CDT

Nah, just a joke poll

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:05:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chuck needs to get on the phone with Lynch

...sometime next year, and drag him into a battle with Judd Gregg in 2010.  Lynch is ultra-popular, and probably the only state Democrat who could oust Gregg.  Gregg is still uber popular himself in the state, and I don't think Hodes has the juice -- at least now -- to do the job.

Hopefully Chuck comes back for a third spin at the helm of the DSCC, because we will need a top guy to recruit Lynch, Brad Henry, Tom Vilsack, Sebelius, and others into key fights.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:02:00 PM CDT

I agree

I'm sure Governor Lynch has already been approached about running for Senate in 2010.  He's almost certainly the only person who can beat Gregg.  And I suspect that if Lynch jumps in early it may push Gregg to retire.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:07:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I completely agree.

Lynch is the New Hampshire equivalent of Schweitzer. Everyone and anyone loves him. His approval in a Manchester Union-Leader poll in July was in the low 70s.

If Shaheen had declined and it was Lynch instead who ran against Sununu, you would be seeing Warner like numbers. It wouldn't even be close. I'm talking like 65-30-5. It would be a complete blowout. Shaheen is popular but is a bit granola (which is awesome for people like me who love their pols granoly!) for New Hampshire. Lynch is a he-man and talks about guns and personal freedom and all the moderate R's and indy males eat it up.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:14:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2010 races

have any of our heavy-hitter senate candidates for 2010 already declined?

Arizona - Napolitano

Kansas - Sebilius

Oklahoma - Henry

Pennsylvania - Schwartz?

Florida - Alex Sink?

New Hampshire - Lynch

Iowa - Vilsack

Missouri - Robin Carnahan?

Kentucky - Chandler? or Crit Luallen

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by: CarnahanDemocrat @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 22:28:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My view:

Arizona - Napolitano would be the favorite in an open seat; she may even run against McCain if he runs again, depending on how much the presidential election has hurt his image back home. Wild card is if Obama appoints her to his administration.

Kansas - Sebelius would make a good run of it, but I'm skeptical of her winning a federal election in a blood red state like Kansas. Same wild card as above applies. As a former Insurance Commissioner, she could be a driving force behind reforming health care in an Obama administration or in the Senate.

Oklahoma - Henry has said that he doesn't want to run for the Senate. Given the whackjob nature of OK voters, he probably couldn't even win against Coburn.

Pennsylvania - Allyson Schwartz isn't exactly a heavy hitter. She might have a chance if a conservative knocks off Specter in the primary, but not against the man himself.

Florida - This is the big one. Mel Martinez is weak, and a strong challenger like Sink could knock him off fairly easily.

New Hampshire - I doubt Lynch will risk a safe governor's mansion for a tough race against Gregg.

Iowa - Grassley is running again, and he's way too popular to beat. Vilsack will probably get an appointment, maybe Sec of Ag, or an ambassadorship.

Missouri - Kit Bond is stronger than he looks. He's never won with more than 55% or so of the vote, but Carnahan could run and retain her office, as she's up for election this year. Hard to say whether she'd pull the trigger, though.

Kentucky - Chandler is going to run against Bunning, unless his poll numbers don't add up (after all, a lot of this depends on how positive people view the Obama administration two years in).

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 07:25:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain is laying another big fat egg tonight

Is anyone watching those trendlines on CNN?  People are not reacting well to McCain's Obama/Democrat bashing.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:14:14 PM CDT

Been noticing that

Feels like a tie so far -- but McCain needs much more than a tie, once again.

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by: James L. @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:53:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not so sure

I have a feeling the post-debate polls will be similar to the first debate, Obama with a 10-20% margin of viewers who think he won.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:59:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

By the end

I agree with David Gergen -- it was a modest Obama win.

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by: James L. @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 21:40:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pat Buchannan is positvely gushing right now on MSNBC.

"A clear win for Obama! Worst performance for McCain since the Iowa debate in December."

Chris Matthews said McCain looked old and was wandering around on stage like he didn't know where he was going. LOL!

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 21:51:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

lol

I definitely agree.  McCain's performance sucked, he seemed so awkward and boring and uncommanding.

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by: Andrew @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 22:13:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Something my mom and I noticed about Johnny Mac

Anyone else notice that McCain whistles with his Ss? I didn't notice it until she pointed it out. She thinks it's because he has false teeth. If that's true, I hope he uses Polident, because nothing could be more embarassing than having your own teeth fly out of your mouth during a speech or, worse, a debate.

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by: corran horn @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 19:30:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

lol?

I'm not quite sure how to react to your comment.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 20:37:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

WTF

Did McCain really just say he served on Naval ships with power plants on board?

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:45:14 PM CDT

I missed that

But one thing about McCain is that he has this annoying way of breathing in between words that really makes him sound like an old man trying to catch his breath. Dude is just too freaking old.

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by: James L. @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:55:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My friends... my friends... my friends

That phrase gets really old really fast and McCain has used it about 200 times so far.  

Also, I find it funny that anytime he references bipartisan work the only name he can come up with is Lieberman.  The guy isn't even a democrat.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 20:58:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, to his credit,

he DID mention Feingold.  On one piece of legislation, of course.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 23:28:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting

McCain's favorability plummets when talking about Iraq and foreign policy and Obama's surges.  So much for McCain's supposed foreign policy expertise.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 21:03:16 PM CDT

Looks like IN-Gov is back in play and OK-Sen is gaining steam

C'mon, JLT and Andrew Rice!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 23:30:29 PM CDT