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AL-03 - Mike Rogers lead shrinks to less than half

by: politicalal

Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 5:44 PM EDT


A Capital Survey Research (Gerald Johnson) poll has Mike Rogers leading Josh Segall 44.9 % to 36.4 %. 18.7% of people polled remain undecided. The polling sample was 471 people taken Sep.30-Oct. 1, 2008
with a margin error of  +/-4.5%.

The August poll taken by Capital Survey Research showed Rogers leading 54% to 32.5 % for Segall with only 13.6% undecided.

Segall has improved by 4 points while Rogers has dropped 9 points. We have 5% more undecided from the August poll

A number of thoughts stick out including:

1. Mike Rogers is well under 50%, a clear sign that an incumbent is in trouble.

2. The Bubba Ads did not help Mike Rogers polling numbers.

3. More voters are undecided after seeing ads from both candidates.

4. Rogers went from a substantial 22% lead to a 9%. Segall cutting Rogers lead in more than half is another sure sign that Rogers is in trouble.

5. A serious gas shortage has been reported in the Talladega to Anniston areas. That does not bode well for Rogers.

**Reminder - Josh Segall will also be a guest on The Progressive Electorate Blog Talk Radio Show This Sunday
politicalal :: AL-03 - Mike Rogers lead shrinks to less than half
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That's one hell of a note
This race hasn't gotten a ton of play nationally.  It should.  All I can say is: 33% African American.  I assume that this poll does not account for the fact that there will be unprecedented african american turnout.  

Also, we don't know what percent of the african american vote Segall is currently getting.  I bet it's 60-70%.  That's historically how this district polls and it's why the dccc pulled out on Joe Turnham in 2002.  Joe got 92% of the african american vote on election day and Segall should do similarly well.  

One last thing: this district consistently polls in the low 40s on people saying they are dems and in the mid 30s for repubs.  THIS IS A WINNABLE DISTRICT!  The kind that Obama should win.  


Rogers needs to go
Rogers' record on jobs, veterans, and big oil are not in line with the voters of district 3. New poll looks like we're gonna give Segall a shot to right all that Rogers has wronged.

Let's help Josh
We can win this race

Goal Thermometer


You upheld your end of the deal!
A couple of months back, on a post regarding this race, I told you and some other poster to come back in September or October and show me that this race could be won and I would send your guy some money.  I've gotta wait until my next paycheck, but after that I'll send him $50.  Keep at it!!!

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