Hayes is in trouble

I know this poll was for the DSCC, but I'm very encouraged.  Hayes is a weasel, and most of the Eighth District (I grew up there) are very concerned about the credit crisis.  I'd be very surprised if Hayes wins this race.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 15:50:45 PM UTC

Wow!

This is great!  Trading in Robin Hayes, textile tycoon, for Larry Kissell, social studies teacher, is one heck of a change.  How many school teachers are there in Congress?

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by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 15:57:35 PM UTC

Tim Walz

Walz taught High School Geography.  I'm not sure how many others there are.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 16:55:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Of course

This is going to be one of the districts that Obama must win heavily if he has any hopes of winning statewide - large black population, economically depressed, manufacturing based. Given Obama's tie or slight lead, him winning by 12 points (albeit a little high) isn't quite out of the picture. And while the Kissel/Hagan numbers might be a little high as well, it's safe to say all are ahead in this district.

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by: KainIIIC @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 16:02:15 PM UTC

I mean, seriously?

Conditions are changing rapidly in North Carolina, sure, so it'd probably make sense at this point for Kissell, Obama, and Hagan to be leading narrowly, but all of them by double digits?  Color me skeptical, until there are some more polls to back this up, anyway.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 16:08:08 PM UTC

Reasons

There are 2 big reasons for the change.

The last poll in this race was from over a month ago.  In that time the DCCC alone has spent over half a million dollars on this race, and the economy has tanked.

It might be a little on the high side because of the "economy bounce" almost every democrat is getting right now, but there are also explanations for the numbers.

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 16:13:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This poll confirms Obama's slight lead in NC.

For him to be up 3 points in Rasmussen today, he has to be winning this district by about 5-10 points. It has a huge black population and is economically depressed.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 16:47:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Registration Stats for NC-8

This is not a heavily minority district.  Out of the 13 ditricts in NC, it is #5 for the number of black voters.  As of 1/1/08, registration by race in this district was

White - 67.5%
Black - 27.5%

These are the most recent numbers available from the NC Board of Elections by Congressional district.  Statewide, voter registration is up 7.5% from the 1/1/08 numbers so black registration is probably up a point or two.

Having said that, Kissell is attracting a lot of white voters if he has this kind of lead.

This is what happens when Democrats give voters a solid alternative to their middling GOP rep, and then spend the money to let prople know who he or she is.

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by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 19:53:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

this district is heavily Democratic on a state level

and was drawn by the state legislature in 2002 to be unfavorable to Hayes.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 20:39:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Robin Hayes

Wasn't he the rep who promised to vote against CAFTA and then caved in the end and switched his vote to help it pass?  

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 17:16:18 PM UTC

Yep

The one and only. Here's a excerpt about that from wikipedia

Rep. Hayes has drawn heavy criticism for voting in favor of the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Hayes had earlier voiced his strong opposition to the measure, saying he felt it would cause further loss of textile industry jobs in his district. In the weeks before the vote, Hayes stated that he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed to CAFTA," saying that "it's not in the best interests of the core constituency I represent," and that "there is no way I could vote for CAFTA". Hayes first voted "no" but was pressured at the last minute to change his vote by prominent House Republicans. The final tally was 217-215 with Hayes casting the deciding "yes" vote (a tie would have defeated the motion).[1]

Hayes played a similar role in the passage of the Trade Act of 2002, which shifted some trade agreement authority from Congress to the President. Though Hayes had said "We're a definite 'no' until we get some help on textiles," he was lobbied hard by the White House and congressional leadership to vote for the measure. Hayes waited until the last minute before voting "yes," and broke down in tears on the floor of the House.[2]

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by: bradley minoski @ Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 17:36:24 PM UTC