So here's the Dems we're defending this year:

Mitchell, Giffords, Mahoney, Hill, Cazayoux, Shea-Porter, Carney, Kanjorski, Rodriguez, Lampson (not on the list. . .) and Kagen.

Even if they all lost, and we lost our one conceivably vulnerable open seat in Alabama, we'd still control the House.

OTOH, nobody should be shocked to see any of the above lose on election night.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:12:44 AM UTC

TX-22?

Why is he not on the list? Have they given up? Any numbers from there as of late?  

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by: Ectoras @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:22:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seriously doubt it

They've dropped a lot of cash into TX-22.  My guess is they just skipped this round.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 13:39:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hurricane Recovery

Everyone is on radio silence right now except for Minceberg (D running for Harris County Judge). People are still adjusting to hearing politics again, a few pockets still lack electricity. Door to door is working right now, expect a return to the airwaves next week.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 14:09:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd be really shocked to see Rodriguez lose.

Especially to a guy named Lyle Larson.

Would also be shocked to see Giffords or Mitchell lose.  I don't even know who's running against Mitchell.  Must have forgotten Ken Spain's press release on that one.

And I'd be shocked to see Baron Hill lose.  I'd be very disappointed, though not technically shocked, to see Kagen lose.

Mahoney, Cazayoux, Carney, Lampson, Kanjorski, Shea-Porter, however, would not surprise me too much.  I wouldn't be happy about it, and I expect 3-4 of them to win (not Kanjorski or Lampson), but I wouldn't be shocked by any of their losses.

McNerney probably belongs on your list though.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:46:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just controlling the House is not enough

We need to pick up 20-25 seats to have a buffer against the 2010 midterm.  

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by: BillNolan @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 19:06:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too much defense for my tastes.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:17:30 AM UTC

Sure, but...

Remember: They make these kinds of spending decisions in part based on polling data that we'll never see.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:22:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Any estimates where they must be polling around....

For the DCCC to be spending money on them?

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:59:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No idea

They don't file independent expenditures for polling like the NRCC sometimes does.

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by: James L. @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:01:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I have to keep reminding myself,

being ahead doesn't mean one can do nothing, spend nothing, and still win.   You don't start walking at 75 yards of a 100 yard dash just because you're ahead of everyone else at that point.

On the other hand, this is the standard top tier of races, and the only real expansion beyond that accepted list that I see are AZ-03, PA-03, and MD-01.   I don't mind seeing spending in AZ-01 or AK-AL or NV-03 if that's what it takes to seal the deal there, but I would like to see more spending in the second tier at the same time.  

Two more weeks like the two we just had, though, and the first tier will be done and the second will be open.  I don't know that we'll get two such weeks, but we'll win a shitload of races if we do.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 09:38:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why is that

Spending to defend a mere 11 seats doesn't sound like too much to me.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 13:41:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where's Burner?

It seems like the DCCC has really been neglecting her.

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by: meekermariner @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:44:26 AM UTC

Maybe their standard

is that the incumbent or incumbent party be polling below 50%.

We don't see their polling, and Majority Watch isn't giving us the bounty they did in 2006.

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by: andgarden @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 03:47:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wooooo!

A big media buy in MN-03. I saw a Patriot Majority Midwest ad today as well.

Other then that I'm not hugely happy, what's with the big bucks being spent in VA-11?

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by: Populista @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 04:01:11 AM UTC

Giffords

On the one hand, I thought she was doing OK, so I wonder about the DCCC putting more money in her district.

On the other hand, I understand that she's a strong supporter of public campaign financing (which AZ has on the state level), so I guess I'm OK with it if it ensures she returns to the House.

Maybe someday we can end this monetary madness and make sure candidates can run on, well, issues instead of their fundraising ability?

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by: dsimon @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 12:57:58 PM UTC

Let's hope that the internet makes it possible

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 21:04:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More aggressive please.

   A lot of the those races make sense, but I don't understand why the Kuhl-Massa race in New York has been left out completely.  Are the rumors true that Massa is simply dismantling Kuhl?  Kuhl seems to make a new misstep every week.

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 23:29:41 PM UTC

Such as?

I haven't been following the race, but I'm interested to hear what Kuhl has been cooking up.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 23:36:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well the debate thing.

  Kuhl still hasn't agreed to a single debate.  That's not always a big deal unless you're perceived to be running away from the challenger.  His excuse was hilarious: "we've taken the position that I'm real busy."  We've taken the position?!!!  Hahaha.

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 23:43:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]