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NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 9:03 PM EDT


PPP (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (44)
Pat McCrory (R): 44 (43)
Michael Munger (L): 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3%)

Hmmmm. While most pollsters are seeing Barack Obama and Kay Hagan suddenly and surprisingly pulling away in North Carolina, it also seems that most pollsters are also seeing Democrat Bev Perdue fall behind Pat McCrory in the open North Carolina gubernatorial race.

What's significant is that PPP is the pollster that has been most favorable to Perdue; this is the first PPP poll showing her trailing McCrory. This is also apparently the same sample that gave Hagan that staggering 8-point edge, so there seems to be some troublesome ticket splitting that'll need to be overcome.
Crisitunity :: NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground
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NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground | 38 comments
WTF is going on here?
There is no excuse for Obama and Hagen to be tied or better in their races in NC and Perdue losing.  Maybe a couple joint Obama-Hagen-Perdue events in NC would help?
Perdue's campaign
has left a lot to be desired.  Her debate performances have been very mixed, and she just does not present herself well.  McCrory paints a good picture, even if he is lying through his teeth - which he is.

She is just now on the air with hard hitting ads against McCrory. She is accusing him of accepting a pay raise as mayor of Charlotte, but vetoing a pay raise for Fire & Police.  Another ad portrays McCrory as a copy of Bush. I hope its not too late for Perdue to define him - we start voting on Oct 16th.

Losing this race would be bad in so many ways.  The Governor gets to appoint the elections board in each county - 2 from the governor's party, and one from the other party.  Democrats also dominate the legislature, bottling up in committee all the nasty litte b.s. things Republicans like to votes on - God, guns, gays, etc.  A GOP gov might force some of those out of committee.

[ Parent ]
We will have to hope
that Obama's coattails - and heavy registration work - will pull Perdue through.

[ Parent ]
Burnout
I think voters are getting tired of Democratic governors.
North Carolina
hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1988, and Washington hasn't done it since 1980. Maybe it's the electoral equivalent of the seven-year-itch.
[ Parent ]
True
People do seem to like Checks and Balances... Trust me, we Californians have the Govenator for goodness sake! lol
[ Parent ]
Spending
Perdue has been outspent for the last few weeks (months?), but she has raised a significant more amount of money.

The question is, will her money dump in the final weeks be enough or will the message not work?  And how is she going to keep people from voting Obama/McCrory, especially during early vote in places like Charlotte?

"Keep the Faith"

McCrory is on the air much more ....
I live close enough to NC (30 miles inside of the SC border)to catch some commercials, and I see a fair number of anti-Perdue ads from McCrory.  Also, the Dem's are the long-time party in control.  

McCrory is popular in Charlotte and will cut heavily into the D vote there.  He has been mayor for 14 years and the city has prospered under his tenure (yesterday's Wachovia news notwithstanding). I have followed Charlotte's urban development since the '80's, and he is easily the best mayor during that time.  If I lived in NC, I would likely vote for him.  Disclosure: I know virtuely nothing about Perdue's record or platform, if I did, perhaps I would support her, but perhaps not.  

Obama/ Hagan coattails are Perdue's best hope frankly.  

We cannot afford to lose this
or Washington.  We need every governorship possible to have a fair shot at redistricting in 2011.  We are also likely to have a pretty bad year in 2010 in governor's races, especially if Obama wins.  We will probably lose the open seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Kansas and almost certainly lose Wyoming.  We should pick up California, Nevada, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Connecticut if Rell retires.  If we lose a seat this year, we will likely lose our majority in governorships in 2010.  
Good news
in North Carolina, the Governor doesn't get to veto the Congressional map. We should be ok here for those purposes.

Indiana is the really brutal one.  

[ Parent ]
Same in Washington
The governor has no redistricting input and no veto power over it. It's all done by independent commission (2 members from each party), although the legislature can 'amend' the commission by 2/3s vote.
[ Parent ]
2009 governors
The GOP could pick up New Jersey and Virginia, and that could mean the Dems are at 20-21 governors after 2010.  Not good.
[ Parent ]
Then we'd likely to lose our Governor majority anyway
Keeping North Carolina and Washington, we'd bea t 22-23, still a minority.

We're going to need to keep seats in Red states in 2010, as well as New Jersey and Virginia.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I'm puzzled
by the 20-21 comment.  We're at 28 now, will pick up MO this year, so even if we lose both WA and NC we'll be at 27.  So where are the 6-7 losses that you see in 2009 and 2010?
[ Parent ]
Calm down now!
NJ: not likely. It will be competitive, but the GOP there is not very strong.

VA: Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran are strong candidates and could match either Bill Bolling (the GOP Lt Gov) or Bob McDonnell (the AG).  

[ Parent ]
No reason to lose New Jersey
that is a strong blue state.  Much bluer than it was when Florio lost by a whisker in 1993.  
[ Parent ]
I think
Rhode Island and Vermont if Douglas retires too.

I think there's a reasonable chance at keeping Michigan and Pennsylvania, but we can also be in trouble in Wisconsin too.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Oh
and Rudy Giuliani is running against Paterson in New York and many Democrats at home are worried about Paterson.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I think Patterson can take Rudy
He's built quite a profile for himself as a budget hawk.  
[ Parent ]
patterson will win in a breeze
while rudy focuses all of his time campaigning in florida.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
What?
I live in NYC and I have not heard a thing about Giuliani running for anything in this state. And I read the NY Times pretty thoroughly.
[ Parent ]
WHOA there!
Who says we're likely to lose all those governorships?

Last I heard, we have strong potential candidates in TN (Lincoln Davis) and AZ (AG Terry Goddard). WY, probably. KS? Don't we have the AG there? OK? What about all the other statewide officers (AG Edmundson comes to mind). PA is a possibility because of their eight-year turnover tradition.  

[ Parent ]
KS Dems have an heir apparent
In the Lt. Governor picked by Sebelius.  I think his name is Parkinson.  We have a reasonable chance at holding that Governorship.  Though it would be tough if Brownback runs on their side.
[ Parent ]
Let him!
Then maybe Sebelius will take his seat in the senate.  I hope she ends up there someday...
[ Parent ]
Agreed on some
We're losing Michigan unless Obama and the Democrats really fix up the car industry and the economy for them by the time of the 2010 elections.  Highly doubtful...  In fact, any car industry reform will probably only piss them off more.  And Michigan is a crucial redistricting state.  ::sigh::

We had no business having Dem governors in Oklahoma, Kansas, or Wyoming to begin with.  (Well, OK is interesting) so I'm not too surprised about those states and in all honesty, I'm much more open to letting them go if it means more funds for blue states we should control.  Having more blue states actually controlled by Dems allows them to be good examples for the rest of the country on progressive legislation.

I think in 2010, we just need to really focus on Michigan and Pennsylvania.  CA, MN, HI, CT should all be easy pick-ups if the right candidates line-up.  (Ramstad running in MN will be disasterous and I dont think nearly as many of the A-list DFL'ers will run against him and lose their current seats in the state legislature).

[ Parent ]
I believe Rell can run in CT again
She was only elected once.  Her first term was partial due to the former Governor resigning.  
[ Parent ]
Re: MI & MN
Aren't we in decent shape in the MI state house? If we hold our majority there, MI won't be too much of a problem redistricting-wise. As far as PA goes, there's a limit on what the GOP can do there, as their current gerrymander is deteriorating faster than an ice cube in Florida (can't think up a snappier comparison--where's Dan Rather when you need him?). If we can make gains in the state house there, we should be fine as well

Re MN: Last I heard, Pawlenty was going to run for a third term (which is apparently possible in MN) and I doubt Ramstad would run against him. I also doubt Ramstad would survive the convention process as he is way too moderate for the GOP base. Don't forget that we also have the other statewide offices in MN. One of them or one of the heads of the legislature could run.

Actually, Kansas has a history of electing Dems to the governor's mansion, and if the GOP batters itself in the primary (a likely possibility), we could keep that mansion.

[ Parent ]
Faster than an ice cube in a molotov cocktail?

[ Parent ]
We're ok in MI
We have a small majority, something like 58-52, but that is almost certain to grow at least a few seats this year.  And in 2010 all State Senate seats are up, and there is a chance we can grab a majority there too.  Worst case scenario is probably mixed control over redistricting in MI.
[ Parent ]
Not a bad result
With the exception of the last redistricting cycle, when Rs controlled the redistricting process, MI usually had divided control on redistricting. Don't know about the cycle in the early 60s, but Dems held the state House from '68-94 and state senate from '68-85 (could be wrong about this) while the GOP had the governorship for most of that time.

BTW, do we have any prospects for MI governor?

[ Parent ]
MI Governor
Some of the names I've heard mentioned as possibilities:

Dems
Lt. Gov. John Cherry
Senator Debbie Stabenow
Rep. Bart Stupak

Reps
Att. General Michael Cox
Rep. Candice Miller
Sec. of State Terri Land
Rep. Peter Hoekstra
Dick DeVos (the same guy Gov. Granholm crushed in 2006)

I think Stupak best fits the profile.  He's moderate and has consistently won in a conservative, mostly rural district.  Stabenow wouldn't be a bad fit either.

[ Parent ]
Who's gonna replace Stupak then?
It's an R+2 district; do we have someone on a bench there?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm actually quite interested in having red-state D governors
because it really helps us develop our party nationally.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
NC Gov
The thing here is that McCrory is very popular among Democrats in the Charlotte area, which is the largest population center in the state.  I'm sure that many, many Charlotte Democrats are supporting Obama, Hagan, and McCrory.  In the rest of the state Perdue may be doing fine, but it will be hard to overcome underperforming in Charlotte.

Plus she's underperforming with African Americans statewide (ironic, since their support was crucial to her in the primary).  I suspect the Charlotte thing is to blame here, too, since a lot of blacks in that area like McCrory.

Status Quo Bev
McCrory's done an impressive job of blanketing the state with his "Status Quo Bev".  Basically, he blames everything Bev for everythign wrong in the world, presents himself as the agent of change, and picks up all that Change-y goodness from Obama.
Bev's got almost no presence, and no consistent defense or attack on McCrory.
We need James Carville down here, stat.
Lets not flip out here
Both of these polls are within the 3 point margin of error.  In an era when races are being polled all the time by multiple organizations, I think we can get too caught up in a small change here or there.

Now, why Purdue seems to be underperforming Kay Hagan and perhaps Obama, that's another question.

working the e-mail lists
Perdue's campaign is really working email lists for campaign contributuions; I've lost track of how many appeals I've deleted (I'm pretty much tapped out for this cycle). Three this week alone, and it's only Wednesday.

That said, if I did have any money to spend in North Carolina, it would go to Larry Kissell or Kay Hagen.  If we can't get Larry into the House this cycle, I'm afraid there is no hope for any future candidacy. It was a bleeding misfortune that he just missed in 2006; that was his best shot, with surprise on his side. The element working for him this cycle is that the national GOP is overextended financially.

Larry Kissell is on the ActBlue slate below, if anyone has spare change still jingling in a pocket:

http://www.actblue.com/page/20...

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

Kissell will win
Hes worked too hard and Obama's coattails should carry him in.  
[ Parent ]
NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground | 38 comments

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