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FL-24: SSP Moves Race to "Tossup"

by: James L.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:33 PM EDT


The Swing State Project has updated its rating of the race for Florida's 24 District from "Lean Republican" to Tossup.

A number of factors have contributed to our decision to adjust our rating, but GOP Rep. Tom Feeney's decision apologize for taking a golf trip to Scotland on corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff's dime in his first TV ad of the general election was the deciding factor. Talk about losing your poker face.

Feeney's apology for his own corruption is both an admission of his own electoral worries and a risky play to prevent his image from being corroded by weeks of attack ads from Kosmas and the DCCC. But judging by the local press reaction to Feeney's gambit, it's clear that he made a tactical blunder by raising unresolved issues. Just check out this editorial by Florida Today:

What Feeney doesn't say is that he remains under investigation by the FBI for his Abramoff ties and has refused to publicly answer detailed questions about the probe since it began in 2007. That includes repeated requests from FLORIDA TODAY's editorial board.

Meanwhile, a press release his campaign e-mailed Wednesday is a tired rehash of previous Feeney statements on the subject and does nothing to clear the air.

Feeney owes voters a full public accounting of his actions, with every question asked and answered.

Hiding behind a warm and fuzzy TV ad and canned press release won't cut it.

The St. Petersburg Times went a step further, dubbing Feeney the "loser of the week".

While the optics of an incumbent apologizing for his ties to a jailed lobbyist are dangerous for the GOP here, Democrat Suzanne Kosmas, a former state Representative, will still face a challenge in overcoming the 24th District's Republican lean (it went for Bush by 10 points in 2004, and 6 points in 2000). However, a recent internal poll for the Kosmas campaign showed Feeney's lead dropping from double digits to a single point over the last several months, and she won't be lacking for DCCC assistance.

This one is a real barn burner.  

James L. :: FL-24: SSP Moves Race to "Tossup"
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Nice.
Glad to see another race move into toss-up. Which one is gonna be next? I'm guessing FL-21 or MD-01.  

Probably FL-08 before FL-21
Though I already consider both tossups.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I forgot about FL-08.
The more, the merrier.

[ Parent ]
FL-21: Stu must listening to me.
Rothenberg upgrades FL-21 from Lean Republican to "Pure Tossup" according to Martinez for Congress e-mail. Go figure.

[ Parent ]
I have a good feeling about this one
I think we are going to have a very good night in Florida in House races, possibly taking a majority in the delegation for the first time since 1986.  Obama should also help here.  

4 seats in unlikely
I'd put the likely pickup range at 2-3 seats.  Remember, we still have to defend FL-16 which may be tough.

[ Parent ]
They drew the map in 2002
With about 18 to 19 republican seats in mind.  They are down to 16 now.  I will be great if we can take them down to 12-13 seats after this year.

[ Parent ]
Republican poll had Mahoney up
48%-41%.  He should be OK.  

[ Parent ]
As far as newspaper endorsements go
I know for a fact Kosmas will get the Daytona News-Journal endorsement for this race.  The main paper readership is based in Kosmas's base of support - Volusia county.  It's also a very liberal paper.

She should also get the even more important endorsement from the Orlando Sentinal given all the negative Feeney columns I've seen from their paper.  That endorsement is big because the readership is larger and centered more in Feeney's stronger parts of the district.



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