Does Siena have a good record?

I'm not familiar with their polling.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:11:54 AM UTC

They aren't rated

in the 538 pollster ratings list, but they're pretty well established in polling New York. But some of their presidential race polls of New York have been weird this year (the most recent one had Obama up by only 8), and you probably also noticed these are some hefty MoEs.

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by: Crisitunity @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:40:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Siena is alright...

I enjoy reading (and writing about) their polls. I take them with a grain of salt, but they always make for good discussion.

Their presidential polling is a little iffy. Other polls in recent days have shown what a lot of us know: New York is very much a blue day and not in play, as some suggest. This state will go for Obama. I'm not worried about it. Obama will win by 15-20 points - at least.  

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:45:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LMAO! I'm loving these names!

Caesar Trunzo and Serphin Maltese are straight out of a Raymond Chandler novel.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:20:22 AM UTC

Aren't some of these crazy democratic districts?

I think I heard Trunzo's district is somethig like 70% Democratic.  How the hell have these republicans managed to win so long in such democratic districts?

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:32:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Trunzo's

his actually might still be Republican, although those Republicans tend to vote Democratic.

Maltese' district, my home district, is like 60% Democratic.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:37:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD-3

SD-3 is slightly Republican (about 8,000 more Republicans than Democrats) with over 46,000 blanks. Actually, that is similar to how SD-61 looks. SD-61 has about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats with 41,000+ blanks.

SD-55, where we have a great Democratic candidate running named David Nachbar, has about 4,800 more Republicans than Democrats with over 47,000 blanks.

(By the way, blanks are voters who don't register with one of the political parties here in New York, but are voters who can vote in general elections.

Just to clarify.)

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 03:21:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

When Trunzo was elected

his Island district was heavily Repub...now it is slightly Repub, even swing.  Tim Bishop (D) represents that part of the Island (Suffolk) in Congress.

The other district (Maltese) is heavily Dem, and the district is tilting away from him because his political base, formerly dominant, is now only about 35-40% of the population...

The Maltese-Addabbo race is really going down as a NY streetfight...

Mesi has an excellent chance to take Rath's old district, but that is very tough turf...Batavia and the rural areas of Western NY are extremely Repub on the local level

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by: dpinzow1 @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 12:54:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I will be shocked if Maltese survives this one

With Obama dominating at the top of the ticket and a top tier challenger in Adabbo, Maltese's time is about to run out.  

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by: BillNolan @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 22:32:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama isn't as strong

in the 15th as any generic Democrat...this was a Hillary stronghold. Obama will probably not do much better than Gore. He'll win handidly, but not like Spitzer and Hillary in 2006 when Maltese was almost knocked off.

I live in the 15th and thankfully I just convinced my mother, a strong Hillary supporter, to vote for Obama and a major part of that reason was because she wanted to vote for Addabbo. I'll be back there casting my vote for both too.

I believe Maltese is gone, but this Obama supporter can tell you Hillary would've flipped this seat in a landslide...if anything Addabbo will help get out the vote for Obama.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:14:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

you would have liked the guy that ran in vt

sean starfighter.  STARFIGHTER!  how can you not vote for that name?  (easily apparently, as he came in last).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:50:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I live in the 15th

My dad grew up with the Addabbos and my aunt was married to Anthony Seminerio's nephew.

I'm not surprised to see Obama not cracking 50 here. He will win the district something like 65-35, but this was a Hillary stronghold where Democrats are skeptical of Obama, but truly dislike McCain. I'm worried that Democrats may not turn out as high as they may in other parts of the country because there isn't the same excitement about Obama here and there is elsewhere and that may hurt Addabbo.

Addabbo is also getting killed with disingenious, lying ads and the Maltese attack mailings have been non-stop.

However, this is a Siena poll and Siena polls are crap, so I don't know. I truly believe Foley will easily defeat Trunzo.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:24:19 AM UTC

Kerry numbers is 2004?

What were the Kerry 2004 numbers in your district and the Trunzo district?

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by: BillNolan @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:55:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good question

not sure...I know Kerry narrowly won the towns in Trunzo's district, so it was definitely close.

Kerry won my district handidly, but there were neighborhoods where Bush won 60%-70%.

If I had to guess, I'd say Trunzo's was close to 50-50 and my district was around 60-40.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 02:53:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kerry won...

Both Nassau and Suffolk counties.

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 03:12:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know

but Kerry won Suffolk by 14,000 votes. That's where Trunzo's district is. Kerry's strength in Suffolk was mainly in the West; Babylon and Huntington and in the Hamptons. Bush won Smithtown, Southhold and Riverhead.

Islip and Brookhaven make up most of Trunzo's district. Both towns very narrowly voted for Kerry, but within the boundaries of Trunzo's district, i'm not sure. I think though Trunzo represents the more Democratic parts of Brookhaven and Islip, so Kerry may well have won that district.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 06:26:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sure the floodgates will open

Soon after we take the NY State senate.  Probably quite a few republican retirements in 2009 and 2010 with their last vestige of power gone.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:34:39 AM UTC

Awesome to see state senate races polled

Not something you see every day. I think Trunzo will go down. He's under 50 (and over 80... years old, that is), and I just think the blue wave will knock him over.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 00:46:30 AM UTC

New York State Senate

I thought I would check in here since I see New York State Senate races being talked about.

I have been writing about these races for some time now over at The Albany Project and I can tell you that the Siena poll told us what we already know: That the New York State Senate is looking more blue by the day.

In SD-3, Brian Foley (D) versus Sen. Caesar Trunzo (R) has an incumbent Republican who has two television ads without a single appearance from the candidate. Trunzo never appears in any of the ads. Foley has been working hard in the district. I have ranked this seat leans Democratic. Trunzo is 82 years old. Foley made this seat a top target of the Democrats from the start. That will continue.

SD-7 and SD-48 are both jokes. We have two Democratic incumbents in each district (SD-7 has Sen. Craig Johnson and SD-48's Sen. Darrel Aubertine) where the Republicans are investing in sorry challengers. No one is stopping them from spending that money, especially in SD-7 where that prized Long Island seat that the Democrats took away in 2007 really irks Long Island Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos.

SD-15 and SD-61 are both looking very good for the Democrats. Republican Serph Maltese is vulnerable. He narrowly won reelection in 2006 and this year looks like the year he will finally lose. SD-15 has a huge Democratic enrollment advantage, so that can help propel Democratic candidate Joseph Addabbo to victory. Joe Mesi in SD-61 has strong name recognition and will win Republican support. His Republican opponent is a career politician and county legislator who is not very well known in the district.

SD-56 is closer than the poll suggests. I was told after my analysis of that poll that I should go take a statistics class. Statistics had nothing to do with it. There are three key parts to SD-56: The Towns of Greece and Parma, the Town of Brighton and the City of Rochester. Robach's home turf is Greece and he was winning, according to the poll, with 71 percent of the vote there. I contend that the sample from Greece was mostly Republican. I can tell you right now: Dollinger and Robach are running neck and neck. It's a close race. It's not a double-digit lead for Robach. Dollinger is still in it and can win it.

There are other races that we have great candidates running in but these are the most-talked about races. There are other races throughout the state that are close, but these races that Siena polled just happen to be the ones with the most publicity.

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 03:11:49 AM UTC

Thanks for the additional insights

Your power rankings at the Albany Project have been very helpful, especially for non-New Yorkers like me. Do you have any other thoughts on what our best shots at picking up GOP seats are, beyond the 4 big ones that they polled?

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by: Crisitunity @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 04:53:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Additional pickups

Beyond those four, there are a few different races where we are, at the very least, competitive. One race I think we can win is SD-55 with Dave Nachbar going up against Republican Jim Alesi. Nachbar has proposed a very smart economic plan that will go beyond his own district. Nachbar also has plenty of money and he is very, very smart and savvy.

One race to watch is SD-59. Republican Sen. Dale Volker is being challenged by moderate-to-conservative Democratic candidate Kathy Konst. There are some ugly things going on and they are allegedly linked to the Republican in the race. This is a red district (many rural elements to the district) but Konst is moderate enough (or perhaps conservative enough) to give Volker a run for his money. Volker faced a Republican primary and his opponent received 42 percent of the vote. That's significant. Volker is aging and if his time to leave isn't this year, he will be out in a couple of years.

Another race is SD-11. Republican Sen. Frank Padavan has enough Democrats supporting him, some say. The district has an overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage and the Democratic candidate, Jim Gennaro, has the fundraising advantage. Padavan has won over a lot of voters the way other Republican senators have. The reality for voters in SD-11 is that if the Democrats win in November, Padavan will be a nobody. I don't know if that's a strong selling point, but Gennaro is not exactly a bad candidate. He is very strong for the district, but we'll have to see how the race evolves over the next several weeks.

One last one: Don Barber versus Republican Jim Seward in SD-51. Here's Don:

If I had to pick a sleeper and a true race to watch, it's in SD-51. I'm not promising anything. Barber could lose by double-digits for all I know. But he is a very strong candidate and his opponent has a long voting record that isn't so distinguished.  

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:33:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who takes over for LG?

The Senate Majority Leader. Technically.

That's what our state's constitution says. The majority leader of the Senate serves as acting LG. Meaning, they do some of the things the LG does but isn't officially LG. Joe Bruno tried to say that he got two votes because of this - one as a senator and one, in case of a tie, as LG. Dean Skelos, the current Republican majority leader, hasn't really taken that line like Bruno did.

There has been legislation in the past that would address this problem. The legislation called for giving the governor a chance to name an LG to fill the vacancy, with that person being confirmed by the Assembly and Senate. However, the proposals have always been dead on arrival in the Senate. Big shocker there.  

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by: robert.harding @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 05:40:36 AM UTC

If the Dems take the Senate

the Majority Leader will be Malcolm Smith of Queens, who is African-American. Smith would become LG...meaning both the Governor and Lt. Governor will be black men.

cool, huh?

Another fun fact. Smith's district abuts the Nassau County district of Dean Skelos, the Republican leader.

FWIW, I know a couple of Long Island's Republican Senators from my days working for PBS on Long Island and from my days as a student at Hofstra University. Skelos is actually a really nice guy. I'm a huge fan of Chuck Fuscillo and John Flanagan...I dare say if I lived in their districts, I may actually support them.

I don't know the other ones.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 06:30:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about SD-43?

This is Joe Bruno's old district and I live just outside of it.  The district includes the heavily Democratic Troy suburbs and the heavily Democratic city of Saratoga Springs, while the rest of the district is Republican leaning rural areas in Washington and Saratoga counties.  I believe Bush only barely won the district in 2004 and Gore won it in 2000, although Republicans still hold a registration advantage.  

The race is between Democrat Mike Russo and Republican Assemblyman Roy McDonald, who represents the rural parts of Saratoga and Washington counties as well as a few Republican precincts in the city of Saratoga Springs.  Im somewhat surprised that Democrats are not doing more to win this seat.  

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by: BillNolan @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 07:11:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the Dems

are targeting a set few seats where they can win their majority, then go for the kill in 2010 when statewide officers are up.

All they need is two seats and right now it looks like they'll get it in Rochester and Queens and perhaps a few places elsewhere.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 18:15:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They'll flee like rats after losing their majority

The NY State Senate will probably mirror the U.S. House post-2006.  I'd expect many longtime state senators in NY to suddenly realize they have families that need paying attention to after 2008.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 18:51:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hehehe...

The same way Vito has "families" that need attention?

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by: tommyiaf @ Sun Sep 28, 2008 at 02:23:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]