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NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02: Granite State Roundup

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 2:18 PM EDT

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)
John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)
(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen's four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week's poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu's favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)
Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)
Undecided 12 (14)
(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)
Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)
Undecided 33 (32)
(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing "spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll" has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

Crisitunity :: NH-Sen, NH-01, NH-02: Granite State Roundup
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Shea-Porter could pull this out
the reason is that many voters still think Bradley is the incumbent and he wont get the usual benefit of the "incumbent rule" that says that 67% of the undecided vote goes to the challenger.  

why are her favorables so low?
I am surprised. Has she done something specific to bring that number down to 44?

[ Parent ]
That's actually the highest her favorables have ever been. I think the problem may be that she isn't very well-known even after having been in office for 2 years, and/or the poll doesn't seem to push leaners much (her unfavorables are only about 30%, so that leaves 25% of respondents offering no opinion).

[ Parent ]
Two questions
1. What's the partisan sampling for NH-01?
2. What's the real partisan fractions in the state and in the first district?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Good questions
1) 64 D and 73 R (and 103 undeclared) in the First.

2) Statewide, as of mid-August, registration numbers say 263K Democrats, 268K Republicans, and 332K undeclared, for a total of 864K. Percentage-wise, that 30% Dem, 31% GOP, and 38% undeclared. The state doesn't seem to list registrations by district, but they do list them by towns, so someone with a map, Excel, and a lot of time on his hands could calculate the specific breakdown by district.

[ Parent ]
Damn, I wish I were working in a campaign and were paid to do stuff like this
BTW, the Camp Obama idea fizzled, because my parents didn't grant me permission until after they stopped taking applications.  Oh well.

And now to convince them to let me join daytrips on the weekends up to New Hampshire...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
If you're/they're okay with a 2 hour drive,
Rhode Island hasn't even started publicizing our Camp Obama yet... I can give you more info once they start talking about it more.

[ Parent ]
What is Camp Obama anyway?
1. Is it just that one day of training, or is there more to it?
2. Does the Obama campaign pay for transportation to and living expenses in swing states?
3. What sort of duties will they have people do as "deputy field organizers"?
4. Can I suggest that I be sent to a place that has lots of downballot races?
5. How long will Camp-Obama-ers be staying in those swing states?
6. What sorts of people do Camp Obama?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
All great questions...
It's odd; I can't find any relevant info online about it, and the Obama website just has a signup form without any specifics about what's involved (although there is a box that allows you to select whether you can commit to 3, 4, or 5 weeks in a swing state).  So I don't know, but I'll let you know when I hear more... theorhetically, after our Debate Party tomorrow night... assuming it still happens...

[ Parent ]
My guess is that NH-02 has a small Democratic edge
in registration and that NH-01 has a slightly large Republican edge.  

That's what this poll is.  Can't wait until a real pollster polls NH-01.  I'd imagine the real numbers are something like Shea-Porter ahead 50-43.  

And as for NH-02 I'd be surprised if Hodes wins by less than 20 points.

Party ID in UNH sample out of whack with reality
Statewide they oversampled GOP by +7%.

My question is why is an outfit called the Granite State Poll polling some other faux state that isn't New Hampshire?

In other news, a new poll from R2K which actually samples pretty accurately according to available party ID data from 8/08 is out tonight, showing Obama +4%, with the other federal races out tomorrow.

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

This is a little concerning:
Voters in the 1st District preferred McCain by 51 percent to 41 percent; voters in the 2nd District, which includes Concord, preferred Obama by 55 percent to 37 percent.

[ Parent ]

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