SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)
Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.8%)
That’s a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we’ve seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)
SSP currently rates this race Tossup.
Shudder to think where we’ll be sitting on election day. I can’t wait for November.
for the Constitution candidate. Perhaps that’s where all of the disaffected Republicans are going because Smith has been pissing all over them, but they could still possibly swing back to him.