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IL-11: Halvorson Posts Leads in Dem and GOP Polls

by: James L.

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 5:10 PM EDT


The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.

Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)
Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)
Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

If there is a point of concern, it's that Halvorson hasn't built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY's List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.

Ozinga's poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 -- that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama's home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.

Oh, and there's this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:

Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.

Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.

"This is a 'don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes,' " strategy, Cole said.

It's sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC's capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.

Also amusing is Cole's note that the NRCC will influence "at least 50 and maybe 60 seats" this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it...

UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.
James L. :: IL-11: Halvorson Posts Leads in Dem and GOP Polls
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IL-11: Halvorson Posts Leads in Dem and GOP Polls | 24 comments
Money at the last minute
can make a difference, but usually only in a crowded field with lots of remaining undecideds. The 2007 Philly Mayoral Democratic primary is such an example.  
Certainly
But with less than $15m in the bank, the idea that the NRCC has enough firepower to spend on 50-60 seats -- even at the last minute -- is pretty laughable.
[ Parent ]
Unless he overestimates the value of $250,000 in our political atmosphere.

[ Parent ]
Probably true
That's not even enough money to run one good Senate campaign in a big state. I think they're going nowhere in the Chicago media market.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah...


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Well
In your honest opinion, do you think Obama will be able to win/carry each and every congressional district in the state of Illinois, just like Kerry did when he carried all 10 Massachusetts districts in '04?
[ Parent ]
That is extremely unlikely
Dems are too centralized in certain cities in IL to win ALL of the districts.  Heck, Kerry won IL in 2004 by >10% yet won a grand total of 15 out of 102 counties!
[ Parent ]
In that respect...
Illinois is more similar to my true blue state of California. The latest polls show Obama +14 to +18, which is an improvement from the somewhat anemic +10 Kerry got in 2004. But even though Cali may be one of the top 5 "Bluest of the Blue States" this year, Obama likely still won't carry areas like Kern County (Bakersfield), Placer County (exurban Sacramento, Sierra foothills), or my home, sweet home of Orange County (yes, THAT one featured on trashy basic cable reality shows!). But hey, if Obama cuts into McCain's margin enough to help Charlie Brown in CA-04 and Debbie Cook in CA-46, I'll be happy. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Probably not...
But he DOES have a good shot at carrying every CD in Massachusetts.  Even these two reliably Dem states can't really be compared evenly...
[ Parent ]
2006
Last minute money certainly put Nancy Boyda ($700 K from the DCCC) and Ciro Rodriguez over the top.  Given crowded TV from the Presidential ads, figure a minimum of $500 K to be a game changer.  That means Republicans can play in only 30 seats this cycle not 50 or 60.  Figure on no more than 10 districts where Republicans attack against Democratic held seats.  TX-22 and PA-11 are two of them and I figure (perhaps wrongly) that Jeb Bradley gets money as well.  If they follow Rove's pattern in 2006, look for late polls to be used to decide which districts are safe, which districts are lost, and which districts are in play.

[ Parent ]
Truth is probably much closer to the Dem poll
Anzalone is usually very accurate.
Off-topic...
But Stu Rothenberg has made some interesting moved in his House race ratings, all in our favor:

FL-08 - Moved to Tossup
FL-24 - Moved to Tossup
CO-04 - Moved to Tossup/Tilts Dem
AK-AL - Moved to Democrat Favored
AL-02 - Moved to Leans Republican
MD-01 - Moved to Republican Favored

I really don't think much of Stu on many levels.  He's typically one of pundits who shows a favoritism to republicans.  So it is definately surprising seing him become the first to move FL-08 to tossup and the first to put CO-04 leaning our way.  

CO-04??!!
Really? Whoo-hoo!!!! Dammit, I just want to give some $$$$ to Betsy Markey right now! Maybe if I have some $ left over when I come back from Vegas. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Overall
His ratings are quite good and relatively unbiased.  If you look at his final house ratings from last cycle, he largely nailed it.  We won all but two of the seats projected to be Tilt Dem or better (that one seat was FL-13, so, you know, in reality we won all of them; the other was OH-15, which a lot of people got wrong), won 11 of the 20 seats that were pure tossup (which makes sense, cause that's saying theres a 50/50 chance they could go either way), and managed to pluck off one Tilt Rep (KY-03) and one Rep Favored (NY-19) and then later one Lean Rep (TX-23).
However, I think where his ratings failed is in the fact that they didn't really allow for long-shots.  This is where his bias rears his ugly head.  I think most other prognosticators had the shocks like IA-02 and NH-01 at least filed under the Likely Rep category, which Rothenberg neglected to do.  We've seen this cycle the mysterious level of contempt he has for long-shot races that could become upsets.  Basically, any idiot can tell us that MN-03 and are pure tossups.  What a quality prognosticator should do is use their wisdom and intuition to point out the races that could be surprises.  Otherwise, why the hell would anyone pay $197/year for a list their dogs could come up with?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
His final ratings are a little deceiving.
His final ratings are a little deceiving.  Although his final ratings in 2006 were pretty good, he generally lagged behind others in recoginizing the direction in which races were headed.  His early ratings in 2006 were pretty bad.  Whether that's a Republican bias or an incumbent bias, I'm not sure.
[ Parent ]
If McCain is leading Obama by 1 here
Obama will likely carry the state by the same 55%-43% margin Gore did in 2000.  
Redistricting changed also changed this district in 2002
Unfortunately not to our benefit.  It removed the heavily liberal and Democratic Cook Suburbs and added some more rural area.  This transferred what was a 53%-45% Gore district in 2000 to a 49%-48% Bush district in 2000.
[ Parent ]
Here are the figures on the district AS DRAWN TODAY
2000
Gore 47.6
Bush 49.6

2004
Kerry 46.2
Bush 53.5

So, Bush + 2 in 2000 and Bush +7.3 in 2004.

As Drawn in 2000, Gore won the district by 8.4 points.

source

[ Parent ]
Can someone explain this?
the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks

Only $84,000?  So the DCCC is not allowed to spend more than $84,000 per Democratic House candidate???  This makes no sense.  What's going on here?  What am I missing?  What are the exact rules for this?

it's the difference
between coordinated expenditures and independent ones. The parties can only give a campaign 84,000 dollars, but they can spend as much as they want on independent expenditures, or IEs. I think I've explained that fairly clearly, anyone else care to reaffirm, or state more clearly?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Childers shot an introductory ad that the DCCC practically paid for
That is a DE aka a Dependant Expenditure.  The NRCC or DCCC can only spend $84,000 in DE's per house campaign.  The NRCC can spend as much money as they want in IE's aka Independant expenditures.  There are rules when you make commercials for dependant expenditures, and there are different rules when you make commercials for independant expenditures.  
[ Parent ]
thanks
I get it now too!
[ Parent ]
CQ Moves NM-Sen to Democrat Favored
From leans Democrat.  

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

Roll on Udall Dynasty!  (Excluding Smith)

It's about time!
They seem to be REALLY SLOW with their senate updates.  MS(B) still as a tossup (an adjustment they made back during the slew of polls showing the Musgrove lead... when was that, June?), yet OR and MN lean R?  They could probably shift some of those R favored races over to safe territory, too.
[ Parent ]
IL-11: Halvorson Posts Leads in Dem and GOP Polls | 24 comments

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