The campaigns of Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Marty Ozinga both released new internal polls today, and they agree on one key point: Halvorson is ahead.
Public Opinion Strategies for Marty Ozinga (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):
Debbie Halvorson (D): 38 (40)
Marty Ozinga (R): 36 (33)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Anzalone-Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (9/14-16, likely voters, May in parens):
Debbie Halvorson (D): 43 (43)
Marty Ozinga (R): 35 (32)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
If there is a point of concern, it’s that Halvorson hasn’t built on her lead despite a whopping $641,000 spent on her behalf and against Ozinga by the DCCC and EMILY’s List in the past couple of months. Both candidates have their own special kind of baggage (Halvorson for the Blagojevich association, Ozinga for his extremely shady business practices and various tax liens), so this could end up being a matter of which candidate emerges less banged-up at the end of the day.
Ozinga’s poll finds that McCain holds a 44-43% lead in IL-11 — that might at first glance seem a bit slanted given Obama’s home state advantage, but keep in mind that Bush beat John Kerry by a 53-46 margin here in 2004.
Oh, and there’s this nugget from NRCC Chair Tom Cole:
Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Monday the group will contribute the maximum $84,000 in direct or indirect aid allowable by law to Ozinga in the coming weeks.
Cole said the race for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Morris, is among at least 50 and maybe 60 seats the NRCC will seek to influence in the stretch run. He said the committee had not moved to help Ozinga and other candidates so far due to limited funds.
“This is a ‘don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes,’ ” strategy, Cole said.
It’s sort of fitting that Cole would use a battle cry from the American Revolutionary War, when the range of muskets was severely limited, as the NRCC’s capabilities have certainly regressed by a few decades over the past year and a half.
Also amusing is Cole’s note that the NRCC will influence “at least 50 and maybe 60 seats” this fall. With what? Spitballs? Well, I guess the NRCC can influence a race by not spending any money on it…
UPDATE: Full Anzalone-Liszt polling memo below the fold.
can make a difference, but usually only in a crowded field with lots of remaining undecideds. The 2007 Philly Mayoral Democratic primary is such an example.
Anzalone is usually very accurate.
But Stu Rothenberg has made some interesting moved in his House race ratings, all in our favor:
FL-08 – Moved to Tossup
FL-24 – Moved to Tossup
CO-04 – Moved to Tossup/Tilts Dem
AK-AL – Moved to Democrat Favored
AL-02 – Moved to Leans Republican
MD-01 – Moved to Republican Favored
I really don’t think much of Stu on many levels. He’s typically one of pundits who shows a favoritism to republicans. So it is definately surprising seing him become the first to move FL-08 to tossup and the first to put CO-04 leaning our way.
Obama will likely carry the state by the same 55%-43% margin Gore did in 2000.
Only $84,000? So the DCCC is not allowed to spend more than $84,000 per Democratic House candidate??? This makes no sense. What’s going on here? What am I missing? What are the exact rules for this?
From leans Democrat.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…
Roll on Udall Dynasty! (Excluding Smith)