Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio's top four congressional races (I wish they would've polled OH-07 also, but I'll take what I can get), and they've just released the results. Let's take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):
John Boccieri (D): 49
Kirk Schuring (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC's unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.
Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama's organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus' hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot's lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.
Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin' OH-15, I have no idea):
OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)
OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)
OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)
Interesting that we're seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin's gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.
