quibbling, but...

FL-13 should be Buchanan, not Jennings, and AK-AL should be DWAF?

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by: jeffmd @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:39:21 AM UTC

Those are good quibbles.

Fixed.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:47:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you don't mind explaining for the unelightened...

What is DWAF?  "The Google" is returning Department of Water Affairs and Forestry (of South Africa).

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:51:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:58:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund - liberal environmental org

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by: zac @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 01:58:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No DCCC buy in PA-10?

Odd, because I'm sure they cut an ad targeting Chris Hackett.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 02:14:36 AM UTC

They haven't filed it yet

I'm guessing we'll see some numbers tomorrow.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 02:17:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point

Carney probably has enough COH that, if he can win, he can do it without DCCC assistance. But they'll do their jobs and play defense for him anyway.

Incidentally, I know Hackett's campaign manager.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 02:22:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have to say

I am not very happy with how the DCCC's IE arm is spending their money. They are being WAY to safe (IMO) to be able to win another big gain in the House. It seems hard to believe that VA-11, TX-23, IN-09, NJ-03 and OH-16 need so much money. And I really don't get why IL-11 has been getting such a insane amount of money.  

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by: Populista @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 03:48:23 AM UTC

Expensive market, close race

and it can probably be drawn for keeps in '11.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 04:21:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL-11

1) Woman candidate with a very strong chance of winning in Debbie Halvorson draws in EMILY'S.  They are risk averse.

2) Marty Ozinga can spent unlimited bucks now and they thing he just might.  So everybody overspends in fear.

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by: David Kowalski @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 08:41:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plus

Both candidates have baggage. This race is all about trying to make the other guy more toxic than you.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 15:57:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not SO MUCH money

The spending in TX-23, on behalf of Ciro Rodriguez, is a lousy $13,000 a week for three weeks. Probably Spanish-language radio aimed at his Hispanic base voters, really cheap and effective campaigning in this demographic. Actually, I'm not at all worried about Ciro. If the ads are running on San Antonio stations, the signals reach into several neighboring districts. Ordinarily I'd worry about the waste involved. But if that ethnic base is energized for a good turnout, that will help Rick Noriega and other Democrats on the ticket. Anyway, at $13 grand a week, by November it's not even another $100,000. Ciro deserves it.

In VA-11, the Repub challenger has money, iirc. This could be a shot across his bow to let him know that if he starts writing checks on his personal account, the DCCC will match his spending, so maybe better to just leave his money in the bank.

In IN-09, again I'm not too worried about Hill, but I don't mind seeing the D-Trip drop $40 or $60,000 bucks into Indiana. It can't hurt Obama's effort to carry that state.

Looks like only OH-16 is serious money, and again, that's Ground Zero in the biggest battleground state.

But I agree that they need to start spreading the money around. Like WTF. Why not spend a few bucks on Wultsin in OH-02? Hers was one of the closest losses in '06, so didn't she earn more support from headquarters this time around? And I'm sure we could make a short list of another couple of dozen races deserving of some attention!

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 17:01:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-23

Actually, that cash spent in TX-23 has all been on direct mail so far. Though I think NARPAC has dropped some major coin on TV ads.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 17:07:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-22

TX-22 did not have any new money in the past week.  I think we should include TX-22 (and any other CDs in this category) to maintain the $$ in the total column.

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by: IvanE @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 04:33:02 AM UTC

I suppose that's probably a good way of doing it.

However, these round-ups are gonna get awfully long in short order

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 04:37:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh, maybe only put the endangered Dems.

Right? Is that what he's saying? I only count four or five. TX-22, LA-06, PA-11, FL-16 and NH-01. Did I miss any? It would be too much to ask for you to post every competitive race.

It's too bad your not a millionaire like Paris Hilton, James. You could just pay people to take care of our every whim. I think we'd all be better off.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 04:45:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If James were Paris Hilton

then he could max-donate to every one of the 90 or so races that I've highlighted, too.  Everything from the most unlikely (such as FL-07 Armitage vs. Mica and OK-01 Oliver vs. Sullivan) to the most defensive (CT-02 Courtney vs. Sullivan and NC-11 Shuler vs. Mumpower).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 18:15:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would soooo do that if I were Paris.

I'm not sure how the FEC views such things but if I were like George Soros rich I'd just give the DNC a few billion dollars. Could you imagine that? I got an erection just thinking about it.

Is that all you had, 90? It looked like a lot more to me but I personally can't keep track of more than 10 at a time.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 18:27:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DNC Limits

"I'm not sure how the FEC views such things but if I were like George Soros rich I'd just give the DNC a few billion dollars."

The FEC would view it as a violation of federal law. Individual donations to any national party committee (that would be the DNC, DSCC, and DCCC on the Democratic side) is restricted to $28,500 per year, with a total limit to all party committees and PACs of $65,500 per two-year cycle.

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by: dsimon @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:24:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah, I had no idea they had limits. I suppose it wouldn't make much difference since I don't have that type of coin anyway.

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:46:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If James were Paris Hilton

"then he could max-donate to every one of the 90 or so races that I've highlighted"

Nope. Even Paris Hilton has to follow federal law which limits total individual contributions to federal candidates to $42,700 per two-year cycle. So one could max out the $2,300 limit to only 19 candidate (assuming one didn't give to primaries) with $1,300 left over.

And that's assuming no contributions to any of the presidential campaigns, primary or general.

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by: dsimon @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:19:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You seem like a guy who would know this....

Are there similar restrictions for 527s? What organizations could a Soros or Pickens just spend billions influencing voters?

Bear with me. If your thinking I should know this stuff your probably right. I'm just a medium-info voter, trying to figure out a little more.

It's so sad. My dream of being the only fundraising force behind the Democratic Party has been crushed............

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:54:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

527s

Contributions to 527 organizations are unlimited under current law. The organizations are limited to "issue advocacy," which means they can't say "vote for" or "vote against." But they can run ads that are virtually indistinguishable from campaign ads; for instance, "Congressman X wants to raise your taxes/take away your Social Security/eats the brains of the dead!"

Lots of good info at www.opensecrets.org. Soros has dropped $4.6 million into 527s so far.

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by: dsimon @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 20:18:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops.

Wasn't aware of that.

Oh well, I don't have that sort of money to contribute anyway.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 20:10:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"If James were Paris Hilton."

Reading those words makes me feel really weirded out.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:45:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha, my creepiness knows no boundaries. n/t

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 19:47:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

$$ in Red to Blue

I am hoping to see the DCCC open up the cash flow in nearly all the Red to Blue list races soon -- a long list is a good thing!  Early voting, vote by mail, and absentee voting are all starting up soon.

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by: IvanE @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 05:00:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Humble Request

I have a difficult time remembering who is running against whom in a lot of these races.  Adding columns for the names of the Democrat and Republican would help and you could eliminate the incumbent column and just indicate the incumbent if there is one by adding an asterik or name in bold.  Not complaining since you're doing all the work and the effort is truly appreciated.

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by: sicembears @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 17:39:58 PM UTC

NY-25

$80k for Maffei.  Whats that about?

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by: jonah in nyc @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 17:58:38 PM UTC

Wasted money

Complete waste of money.  It's more like Maffei should be donating to the DCCC he's in such good shape.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 21:18:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

An abundance of caution

Kraushaar suspects it's because of Maffei's ties to Charlie Rangel, who is having a bit of a tough time lately (to say the least), though I'm not sure if this is much more than concern trolling on Kraushaar's part (sorry Josh).

Look, if the DCCC spends $80K early to poison the well for Sweetland, well, fine. I'd be disappointed if they started spending hundreds of thousands here, though.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 21:26:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]