I'm unfamiliar with this pollster

But it doesn't sound far-fetched to me that the race is already a tossup.  If Feeney keeps quiet and doesn't release his own numbers I'll be even more optimistic.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 15:56:52 PM UTC

Very Good

They are one of the best firms out there in my opinion.

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 16:04:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not surprised

Feeney is not so popular in this fairly moderate to GOP district and with those ethical questions around him, I think Kosmas can win this one. Hopefully she can continue to bring his numbers down.

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by: Progressive America @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 16:03:52 PM UTC

Her campaign is first rate

I've donated to her a couple times this cycle and receive mailings from her nearly every day.  Other people I know get mailings from her as well, some of them aren't even Dems.  Considering Clint Curtis took 42% of the vote by running essentially no campaign, that's a good sign.  I never received a single mailing or saw a single Curtis ad on TV in 2006.

She also has some solid TV ads running - not so much attacking Feeney as introducing herself to voters.  She already has a big base of support in my part of the district, Volusia.  She just needs to raise her profile in Orange and Seminole counties where she's less well-known.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 16:18:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feeney drew this district for himself

so I think it would be very funny if he lost.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 16:21:14 PM UTC

True, but he wasn't overly greedy

He could hae configured his new district to leave out Volusia county, thereby making it much more conservative.  But he didn't do so in order to try and maximize the number of Florida seats for his party.  That move may be what does him in.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 18:13:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good to hear the local perspective

The Florida gerrymander seems on the verge of collapse this year.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 18:59:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feeney is going DOWN

I really think we can win this one.

We're going to get a lot of new Democratic congresspeople from Florida in 09

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by: Populista @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 18:16:15 PM UTC

Charlie Cook House Ratings Changes

WEST VIRGINIA District 2: Lean Republican to Likely Republican
VIRGINIA | District 10: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
TENNESSEE | District 4: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
PENNSYLVANIA | District 18: Likely Republican to Solid Republican  
OREGON | District 5: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
NEW YORK | District 20: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
NEVADA | District 2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NEBRASKA | District 2: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
MARYLAND | District 1: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ILLINOIS | District 18: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
IDAHO | District 1: Likely Republican to Lean Republican  
FLORIDA | District 18: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
CALIFORNIA | District 50: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
CALIFORNIA | District 46: Likely Republican to Solid Republican
ALABAMA | District 3: Likely Republican to Solid Republican

Seems like he's narrowing the playing field on both sides.  I strongly disagree with a few moves, especially CA-46

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 18:43:25 PM UTC

Odd to see him move so many from Likely to Solid

If one of these that he just shifted actually is an upset, that will be embarassing.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 19:11:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Embarrassment ahead

I'm surprised to see him moving WVa-02.

Looks to me like Sen Robert Byrd wants to choose his own successor. That would be his longtime state director, Anne Barth. She is now running against Shelley Moore Caputo, in WV-02, which stretches across the state from the Potomac to the Ohio River. Of course, others will be interested if the venerable Senator, soon to turn 92, chooses not to run for re-election in 2012. But the state's most popular politician is sure pushing his protege forward, now appearing in her TV ads for this potential stepping-stone job.

The Barth-Byrd campaign for the House seat takes places now against a background of polls showing Obama with surprising support, and a larger and more ominous background of a crisis on Wall Street that surely signals a severe recession. Repubs don't do well in elections held during recessions, and I expect Anne Barth to defeat Shelley Moore Caputo.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 19:37:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have to question the WV-02 move as well

What has happened in this race to make it less favorable for Barth?  Same with VA-10.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 19:25:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There were obviously GOP internal polls here

Rothenberg alluded to private polls showing Capito and Wolf with monster leads -- no doubt Cook saw them as well.

IMHO, it was a bit premature to put WV-02 in the Lean R column in the first place. That race could heat up, but I don't think it has just yet.

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by: James L. @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 19:30:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anne Barth Byrd

Anne Barth is a personable and vigorous campaigner. She seems to have raised the money to get herself on TV, perhaps with fund-raising help from her employer -- so she is on air with a cameo endorsement from Sen Robert Byrd himself.

Again, in my forecasting I'm not trying to give the current status of things, but trying to predict where they will turn out on Tuesday night, Nov. 4. I'm betting on Anne Barth and her popular patron.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 19:42:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]