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California Race Chart (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)

by: californianintexas

Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 8:27 PM EDT


Inspired by skywaker9's diary on this year's races in Oregon ( http://www.swingstateproject.c... ), I decided to create one for California, breaking up my analysis into 3 parts since there is so much to cover in my big, beautiful state. This is Part 1 of my series, which will cover the statewide races, which for California are only the presidential race and the ballot measures, since our statewide officeholders, Boxer, and Feinstein are not up this year. The other two diaries will be on the Congressional and State Legislature races; Part 2 Northern/Central California and Part 3 Southern California.

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary....

californianintexas :: California Race Chart (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)
Here is the most recent registration data: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/ro...
Here is the list of candidates that will appear on the ballot: http://sos.ca.gov/elections/el...


Statewide Layout
Democrats: 7,053,860 (43.75%)
Republicans: 5,244,394 (32.53%)
Decline to State: 3,128,684 (19.40%)
Others: 696,849 (4.32%)


Key: I will list the incumbent first, in boldface (in the case of open seats, the incumbent party first without boldface), and all minor parties after the two major parties.

D: Democratic
R: Republican
L: Libertarian
G: Green
AI: American Independent
PF: Peace and Freedom
I: Independent


Race Ratings
Toss-up: Margin by less than 5%
Lean: Margin by 5-10%
Likely: Margin by 10-15%
Strong: Margin by 15-20%
Solid: Margin by more than 20%


U.S. President: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Bob Barr (L), Alan Keyes (AI), Cynthia McKinney (G), and Ralph Nader (PF)

Profile: Obama's win of our whopping 55 electoral votes is a foregone conclusion; no matter how many times McSame says he can compete here.

Outlook: Likely to Strong Obama


Ballot Measures: A whopping 12 measures will be on the California ballot this fall. Information can be found here: http://www.smartvoter.org/2008... Field has released polls on 1A, 2, 4, 7, and 11. http://www.field.com/fieldpoll...

Prop. 1A (High-Speed Rail): This measure would issue $9.95 billion of general obligation bonds for a $40 billion high speed train, connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles, under supervision of the California High-Speed Rail Authority. The train would run from San Francisco to Los Angeles. So far, this measure is passing 56-30, and I strongly urge my fellow Californians to vote for this measure! You can find more information on 1A at California High Speed Rail Blog: http://cahsr.blogspot.com/

9/17/2008 Outlook: Likely/Strong Pass


Prop. 2 (Regulations on Animal Confinement): This measure would prohibit the confinement of farm animals that basically does not allow them to be comfortable, imposing a misdemeanor penalty and fine or imprisonment for violators, and bans cages for egg-laying poultry, gestation crates for sows and veal crates for veal calves. This measure is also passing by an overwhelming margin.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass


Prop. 3 (Children's Hospital Bond): This bond issue would authorize $980 million for improvements on children's hospitals. A similar measure, Prop 61, passed 58-42 in 2004, so for now I can say that 3 will pass also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Strong Pass


Prop. 4 (Waiting Period and Parental Notification): Those anti-choice folks just never give up, and are hoping that the third time will be a charm. Like its predecessors 73 and 85, this one would prohibit abortion for minors until 48 hours after physician notification, only this one mentions an alternative adult family member in the case of reported parental abuse. Still, the addition of that change does not change my staunch opposition to this at all. Right now, though, this measure is passing 48-39%. I can only hope those affirmative numbers go down.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail


Prop. 5 (Nonviolent Drug Offenses): This measure would allocate $460 million annually for expansion and improvement of treatment programs for nonviolent drug offenders, limiting court authority to incarcerate offenders who commit certain drug crimes or break treatment rules or parole. So far no polls have been released, so I can't make an accurate prediction as to how this measure will fare.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated


Prop. 6 (Law Enforcement Funding and Criminal Law Revisions): This measure requires about $700 million of funding for police and local law enforcement, and makes 30 revisions to California criminal law. The funding would come from education, health care, and the environment, just to name a few. The last thing we need is money being diverted from services that keep people out of becoming criminals, so I am saying no to this measure. No polls on this have been released yet, though I hope concerns over the budget will send this to the ballot measure graveyard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated


Prop. 7 (Renewable Energy Generation): This measure would require government-owned utilities to generate 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010, upping that requirement for all utilities to 40% by 2020 and 50% by 2025. However, from an L.A. Times editorial ( http://www.latimes.com/news/op... ) this bill has many drawbacks, including new regulatory powers which could lead to confusion, requiring a 2/3 vote of the legislature to remove, and the excluding of small renewable power-producing plants, which are actually leading the way in our transition to solar power. So I hope the affirmative numbers there go down fast and hard.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-up/Lean Pass


Prop. 8 (Elimination of Same-Sex Marriage Rights): Basically, this measure is what it says; it eliminates the right of same-sex couples to marry. Marriages between same-sex couples would be neither valid nor recognized by the state. After our hard-fought victory in the Supreme Court, we want to make sure that same-sex couples have the same legal rights as everyone else. So far, it looks like that they will still be able to have their marriage rights, though the margins are too close for comfort. We still have to fight to protect them. So vote NO ON 8!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up


Prop. 9 (Victims' Rights and Protection): This would amend the California Constitution to guarantee notification for crime victims, allowing victims' input in the criminal justice process, including bail, pleas, sentencing, and parole; taking victim safety into consideration for bail or parole which, except for guaranteed notification, is already in place. In addition, judges and the state lawmakers would have less power in awarding restitution, releasing inmates early, and granting inmates the ability to earn parole. No polls have been released on this yet, though I hope it goes down also!

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated


Prop. 10 (Renewable Energy): This measure would authorize $5 billion in bonds to assist in buying fuel efficient/alternative fuel vehicles (though only the natural gas-fueled Honda Civic qualifies) and for research in renewable energy and alternative fuel vehicles. I am for alternative energy, but not to give more money to the biggest donor to the Swift Boat Liars, T. Boone Pickens. Basically, this is his plan to control a nationwide natural gas monopoly, giving bigger tax incentives to people that purchase natural gas vehicles (though there is already a federal subsidy for them), than people that purchase hybrid vehicles, though the latter is more efficient. So I hope this proposition goes down also.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated


Prop. 11 (Redistricting): This would amend the constitution to shift authority of shaping district borders from the state legislature to a commission made of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 others, which is out of balance with the registration numbers, as you can see above. California voters have a history of rejecting redistricting ballot measures, and I do think this one will also, though by a small margin. So far, this measure is passing, though by just a plurality. Ballot measures' affirmative numbers tend to go down over time, and California voters have a long history of rejecting redistricting measures, having rejected 9 so far including Prop 77 in 2005, which went down in a nearly 60-40 landslide.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Toss-Up/Lean Fail


Prop. 12 (Veterans' Bond): This would authorize $900 million in bonds for veterans' assistance in purchasing farms and homes. No polls on this measure have been released yet.

9/17/2008 Outlook: Not Yet Rated

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


I would like to see the proposition
on redistricting pass, and more Swing districts created, instead of the shameful measure of making almost nothing but overwhelmingly Democratic and overhwelmingly republican gerrymanders, with maybe only a dozen districts taht gave one party candidate less than 55% in 2004. Out of 51. I do think Democrats could also probably pick up at least four seats here if they made better use of aggressive redistricting in a populous state favorable to them. Republicans did in Florida and TExas, and Pennsylvania and Ohio for that matter, spreading out Republican votes, chopping up Democratic districts, all to varying degrees of success. California is almost as Democratic as Texas is Republican, (minus the Bush native son factor), so, Democrats could easily take out four or so Republicans, most notably are those several strongly Republican leaning seats close into Los Angeles that are surrounded by strongly Democratic territory.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Question
If the redistricting measure passes is it likely to be upheld as legal?  We tried to get a similar measure passed in Florida but the Florida State Supreme Court (overwhelmingly Democratic) ruled it unconstitutional.  Is is guaranteed that the move would be legal in CA?

Just updated Prop 10
I found out on Calitics that 10 is just a power grab by T. Boone Pickens, who happened to be the biggest donor to the Swift Boat Liars, so he can have a national natural gas monopoly.

My initial predictions are based on what I know right now, based on the information we have and the limited polling that is out there. I will update my predictions on these and the House/Senate/Assembly races as time goes on and more information and polls become available.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)



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