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OR-Sen: Merkley Hits Back

by: James L.

Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 2:25 PM EDT


Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith's outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:

The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith's "lies and innuendo". It's an effective spot.

Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It's a kind of nastiness I haven't seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.

I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith's Nancy Johnson moment -- an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was "nice" suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.

It's a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.
James L. :: OR-Sen: Merkley Hits Back
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OR-Sen: Merkley Hits Back | 39 comments
Even the Repubs
In Oregon are complaining about the latest ads from Smith...
Which
Oregon Republicans are complaining about the ad?
[ Parent ]
NWrepublican.blogspot.com
Complaining about the NRSC's ad...
[ Parent ]
The only complaining there
is about the Georgia ad, not the ad about rapists.
[ Parent ]
You don't hit like this unless you're desperate
Gordon Smith's internals must have him sliding fast (tied or possibly even losing) otherwise he wouldn't risk getting Kerry Healy-ied.

I find the first Merkley response ad to be pretty effective.

Yikes...
I can't see this resulting in anything except a significant Merkeley bump.  These are two great spots in response to some pretty horrible Smith campaign tactics.
Merkley has been smart
We've been letting the DSCC and others attack Smith for us, Merkley has switched to mostly positive ads now...
[ Parent ]
How much money is behind the two buys?
Merkley's response ads are very good, though I wish they'd quoted some outraged newspaper editorials; maybe that can come later.  But for now, these two responses work well.

But how many people are going to see Smith's ad, and how many are going to see Merkley's?  That's the $64,000 question.  

And if Merkley doesn't have enough money, the DSCC had better put up some cash for this somehow or other.  Letting a leading challenger in Oregon get blown up this way is unacceptable.  For the credibility of your future recruiting operation, if nothing else, you have to field a complete defense, and a counterpunch "Smith sank to new lows" ad too.  (I guess that's the second ad up there.)

I'll bet the DSCC agrees, but I want to see the numbers.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
I'm getting the feeling...
That the next round of SUSA and Ras polls are going to have Merkley ahead.  The more I hear about this race the more confident I'm getting.  The DSCC should be able to close the money gap in this race for us.
It's Gonna Take Some Good Ads...
...to overcome the devastating "reality" ad where Jeff Merkley is  stuffing his face while he responds to a question about Georgia with "witty" references to Jimmy Carter and Atlanta. If I were Smith's campaign, that's the only ad I'd run for the next 40 days and I'd saturate the airwaves with it.

It's very close to a Macaca moment. Actually, for a lot of people I know, it is a macaca moment.

What reality are you living in?
Even Repubs are complaining about that ad. Macca was offensive/racist, this is none of that...
[ Parent ]
Really?
Anecdotally, I've heard evidence to the contrary.

Or are you like Gordon Smith in that you eat your hot dog with a fork and knife?

[ Parent ]
Oooh snap!

[ Parent ]
Unlike Speaker Merkley...
I don't try to cram more in my mouth than it will hold, spilling crumbs and mumbling through them like a six year old stuffing his face with stolen cupcakes.

It's a macaca moment in that the candidate is shown being who he really is  when the voters aren't looking... and the only thing Jeff Merkley doesn't do is whuff and snort and look around for  a trough. It's a macaca moment in that reasonable people  in his own party have to be embarrassed, and, as I said, I know several of them.

Finally the reality I live in is that I've put close to $5000 of my own money into the campaign kitties of progressive Democrats in local, state, and national elections around the country from Oregon to Maine. Oh, and unlike many who love posting on this site, I'm not smug about my politically correct conformity - because it doesn't exist. And I understand why that makes you crazy.

[ Parent ]
Nice try
It's still a silly, trivial thing. So what if the guy doesn't exactly have the best manners. Ever been to a restaurant? It's like watching pigs eat.

If anybody's embarrassed by this, it's Republicans, who can't understand the usefulness of the ad. Don't believe me, go read Blue Oregon.

[ Parent ]
Maybe you don't get what a Macaca Moment is.
George "Macaca" Allen lost his US Senate race solely because he made racist remarks because the "shadow" or whatever the hell they call it (Guy w/ the camera making sure you don't screw up) wasn't white.  DSCC pumped something like 10 million dollars into the race plowing the state with macaca ads displaying his racism to everyone in the state.  It was an easy win, presidential prospect, all shot down because of a silly comment.

Merkley is far from an easy win and if he loses his senate race, it is doubtful that it would be immediately and solely attributed to NRSC ad which (as far as I know) hasn't been pounded into the brains of Oregon voters.  

[ Parent ]
Really?
A macaca moment is when a candidate lets slip a highly offensive word/phrase that ends up costing him/her their career.

How is an ad of someone eating a macaca moment? Even some of the resident Goopers at BlueOregon have complained about it, wondering what its relevance was.

[ Parent ]
That is not a macaca moment. I call bullshit.
That is clearly a candidate ambushed by a reporter who only asked about "the situation in Georgia".  Most Americans would think of the state and not the country even today if given that question.  The ad doesn't say that it's four days into the conflict or anything like that, and without some kind of damning context like that, there's nothing there.  There's just a candidate, getting "interviewed" while he was trying to eat.  Who cares?

If anything, it trivializes Gordon's campaign, and makes Merkley look like a normal human.

I would be perfectly happy if the NRSC dumped all their money into this ad for the next 40 days.  In fact I'd beg them to if I thought it would work.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
A redneck police officer
We need a redneck police officer on TV to do ads for Merkley. It had worked in Mississippi a generation ago for Mike Espy.
No, I think she's a good choice.
This is about sexual assault, after all, and Smith used a woman in his ad. I think the message is more effective this way for Merkley.
[ Parent ]
umm, wrong region, maybe?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
A redneck police officer
How I wish, at least 10% of democratic candidates had a redneck police officer (preferably a wellknown sheriff) doing ads for them on TV!!! The public needs a perception that dems are for law and order too. This is sadly lacking in general and gives Republicans plenty of ammo.

There is no wrong region for this except some urban pockets (eg NUYC, DC, SFO, LA).

When Feinstein ran for the first time, several bay area police unions supported her. That helped.

I read somewhere that the Udalls are supporting their cousin Sen Smith (blood thicker than politics?) Someone should ask them about these ads.

[ Parent ]
VA-Pres SUSA Poll - Obama up 4
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Obama - 50%
McCain - 46%

The breakdown by party is 37 Dem/33 Rep/23 Indy... does that sound reasonable?  

Seems fairly consistent with their usual VA breakdown.
Virginia does have a few Dixiecrats like the rest of the South, I believe.
[ Parent ]
But what worries me with this poll
Is that it has Obama ggetting 87% of Dems and McCain 80% of Repubs.  That sounds a bit off from the norm.  Almost all states I've seen had more GOP loyalty to McCain than Dem loyalty to Obama.  Especially in VA I would think that is the case.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
You'd think those party loyalty numbers would be reversed in a Southern state. Perhaps there are some moderate GOPers in NOVA who are slowly turning into RINOs, but I'm not sure if that would account for the disparity that we're seeing here.
[ Parent ]
Not really.
Doesn't it seem like the D and R numbers should be flipped? What was the party breakdown in 2006?

Btw Rasmussen has it tied today so that's two polls in one day that have the state swinging back to Obama.

[ Parent ]
Just look at other VA polls.
SUSA has always found more Dems than GOPers in VA. Same with PPP (40D - 34R):

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

And Insider Advantage (36D, 32R):

http://www.southernpoliticalre...

Like I said above: Dixiecrats.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for confirming that James.
For some reason, I always thought of Virginia as more heavily pro-business than the other Southern states so the whole Strom Thurmond Dixiecrat thing was never a factor there.
[ Parent ]
Well hey
Remember, Virgil Goode used to be a Dem!
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say flipped
I believe republicans had a slight registration edge a few years back but I'm sure we're at least even or slightly ahead by now.  
[ Parent ]
it is not assuring
It does not take care of the 5% "Tom Bradley, Harvey Gantt" voters.
[ Parent ]
It cuts both ways
McCain ain't gonna get 11% of the Black vote. Unless Obama can only match the Kerry performance with African Americans which is I think unlikely.
[ Parent ]
That is true
I assume there is just as much of a reverse-Bradley Effect as a Bradley Effect.  I really don't think McCain is going to get more than 7 or 8% of the black vote nationwide and even less in the south where things are even more polarized.
[ Parent ]
Ohio Att. General poll - looks great!
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Richard Cordray (D) 44%
Mike Crites (R) 33%
Robert Owens (I) 13%

Great news.  Good to see Ohio doesn't want another Blackwell running elections.

Wrong position
The Secretary of State handles elections here in Ohio, and we have a capable incumbent in Jennifer Brunner.  
[ Parent ]
oops you are right
Still an important position.  Didn't the last Att. General resign from a scandel or something?
[ Parent ]
Yes.
He did.
[ Parent ]
A Sordid Fall from Grace
For all his problems, I did admire Marc Dann's work on Coingate as state senator (my state senator, in fact) and hoped he would bring that same tenacity to the office of AG. Unfortunately, Dann succumbed (as have other politicians from the Mahoning Valley) to the hubris of high office. Granted, this is not exclusive to my hometown area, but we've made it into an art form. Just glance at the records of prominent politicians from my area (political and arrest records) and you'll get an idea of the culture of corruption around here. Thankfully, Tim Ryan has been largely immune to it. I hope it stays that way.

BTW, I was wondering who Cordray's opponent was going to be. Last I read (which was back when Dann first resigned), the GOP was trying to get Mike DeWine or Deborah Pryce to run (which tells you how hard up they were).  

[ Parent ]
OR-Sen: Merkley Hits Back | 39 comments

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