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On Winning the West

by: atdleft

Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 4:58 PM EDT


(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)


I know you've heard this. I have, too. "The battleground has moved West." To a large extent, this is true. And while we probably will may plenty of attention to traditional swing states like Florida & Ohio this fall, we probably also will be spending much more time analyzing developments in places like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Montana.


But you know what? The Presidential Race isn't the only interesting race out west. Let's take a look at some extra goodies that we can look forward to.

atdleft :: On Winning the West



Nevada is a critical state for Democrats this fall. First off, this state is a top target for Barack Obama to make the goal of at least 270 electoral votes. But in addition, we have two important Congressional races that can earn us two much needed seats as we expand our majority.


The 3rd Congressional District is one of the hottest races out West, if not the hottest. Dina Titus is running strong in a district where Democrats now outnumber Republicans. Both the Nevada Democratic Party and the Obama campaign are working hard here, and the key for them will be turning out all the newly registered Democrats while also winning over the swing voters that decide both Presidential elections and Congressional elections here in suburban Las Vegas. The Bush-McCain GOP incumbent Jon Porter is running scared, and we can tell. Dina Titus even has new ads on the air, and with our support she'll have everything she needs to win.


The 2nd Congressional District may have been tradionally a Republican stronghold, but Jill Derby is changing that. The race is competitive, and the Bush-McCain GOP footsoldier Dean Heller is already throwing everything but the kitchen sink to maintain his edge. We have the power to hold Heller's feet to the fire, and ultimately help Derby give Heller the boot.

Although Arizona may be John McCain's home state, that isn't stopping Democrats from competing hard here. And in addition to the Presidential race, we have a great candidate in Ann Kirkpatrick who looks to replace the corrupt (and retiring) GOPer Rick Renzi. Ann Kirkpatrick has worked hard for her community, has real Arizona values, and is running to bring about real change. This is one of our best chances at picking up a seat out west, so let's take it!

We all know New Mexico is one of our top swing states that we can turn blue. But in addition to Obama's victory, we can also send another Democrat to Congress! Martin Heinrich is running strong in this Albuquerque district... In fact, so strong that he's now taken the lead in the latest independent poll! The voters now see that Republican Darren White is just another Bush-Cheney sycophant, and they're ready for real change.

OK, so I know these aren't all of the great races that we're discovering out West. However, I hope that this gives you an idea of what's really at stake. If we play our cards right, we may not only wind up with a President Obama next January, but also with more and better Democrats in Congress. But if we don't stand up for our Democrats now, we can't win.


So please, stand with us. If you live in any of these areas, help out with the campaign. And no matter where you are, support your party, your values, and your candidates. Are you ready to win? I am! :-)

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Tips? Flames? Suggestions?


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


WY-AL, ID-01, ID-Sen
If we're talking about important Congressional races out west, you should REALLY include these.  These are excellent pick-up opportunities in tiny and heavily-Republican states, that can give us a strong foot-in-the-door to become competitive in those states in the future.

Not to mention that Trauner, Minnick and LaRocco are running excellent campaigns.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Really?
I remember Trauner from 2006, and I've heard some about Minnick & LaRocco. I must admit that since I haven't been following those races closely, I don't quite know the dynamics at play in these states.

Do ID & WY have a history of ticket-splitting? How much $$$$ have these candidates raised? Have there been any recent polls? Have the DCCC/DSCC &/or other progressive organizations jumped into these races?

I hope this doesn't seem like I'm "grilling" you. I'm just curious as to what the state of the race looks like in these state. My friends & I at C4O want to support good candidates that we know have a shot at winning. If these Dems are viable, we may need to shift our resources your way. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Dunno about ticket-splitting, but fundraising is pretty good
Trauner has more money than his opponent Lummis, and Minnick has more money than his opponent Sali, IIRC.  LaRocco is also fundraising at a good pace, though his total CoH was smaller mainly because of a large personal dump by Risch.

I remember noticing that the DCCC has allocated and/or spent money for Minnick already.  I don't know about the other two.

As for campaigns: Trauner, as you may recall, did his knocking on 10000 doors last election cycle, and he's most likely expanded on that number by now.  LaRocco is probably best known for his "Working for the Senate" campaign.

I don't remember any polling data on ID-01.  ID-Sen has shown Risch with a 10-12 point lead, but only at around 40-45 percent total--i.e., TONS of undecideds.  WY-AL has been polled about twice, with Trauner leaing lummis 41-40 and 44-43, IIRC.

Some people say that Trauner's going to have to fight against the top of the ticket.  Actually, I think the hottest race in Wyoming will be the WY-AL race, because the Senate races are pretty uncompetitive and the presidential race is hardly competitive either.  You might get more relatively-less-active voters coming up just to vote for McCain, but the competitive race that people will be watching will be this WY-AL statewide race.

As for Idaho, I just hope Obama stops by shortly before the election.  You saw what happened when he did.  And while it's still Republican-dominated, I don't think I have to remind y'all what a mess there is, from Larry Craig to Bill Sali.  Not to mention there's Rex Rammell in the Senate race.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Vaguely covered info on DCCC spending in ID-01
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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