I read a politico article on Cole / NRCC were polling OH-02

They basically ended it saying the poll will never see the light of day unless it carries good news for the GOP.  That'll be a good indicator for us on where OH-02 is.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 00:41:53 AM UTC

James -- a totally off-subject question

Sorry to threadjack, but I'm gonna :)

I'd love to get your take on the upcoming national elections in Canada.  What are the chances that PM Harper will get his majority government, or can the center/left survive and put the breaks on him?

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:28:21 AM UTC

Pocket analysis: Liberals are gonna get crushed.

Stephane Dion is like John Kerry only without a solid grasp on the English language. And without the charisma. Harsh, yes. But true.

Yeah, Harper isn't beloved, but he's done a good job in presenting himself as a normal, bland "hockey dad" (and not in the nutjob Sarah Palin gun-toting "hockey mom" kind of way).

I think the Green vote will surge this time, and I could easily see Harper squeaking into the first Conservative majority in a decade and a half.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:32:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So in other words, not good

But you, like I, somehow or another know how to politically survive in a red area -- or in your case, a blue area :)

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:37:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't get it

I know the last Liberal government in Canada did a poor job and was corrupt, but why the hell are voters rewarding a right-wing party?  Canada is a fairly liberal country.  I have no clue why they want to go the route of Bush Jr. (Harper).

Same thing seems to be happening in the UK where the Tories are expected to win the next election.  WHY reward the right-wing nutters?  Arggg...

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:43:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

The Cons haven't really done anything incredibly controversial, though I'd expect them to push some of their more "movement" ideas with the safety of a majority. The Liberals are still reeling from a hangover left by the legacy of Adscam and a general feeling of Liberal fatigue after 13 straight years in power. Moreover, the charismatically-challenged Stephane Dion turned out to be a pretty uninspiring choice for Liberal leader, and his carbon tax plan (a.k.a. the "green shift") is vulnerable to typical right-wing tax demagoguery.

The Liberals flat-out need a more effective leader. I'm not sure who that guy would be at this point, though.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:54:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the same things happening in the US

every country in the world has seemed to overthrow it's previous government, changing parties. In Australia labor won, it happened in Canada, is going to happen in England, happened in France, in Germany, happened in Italy until Prodi was overthrown, would have happened in a fair Mexican election. Happened in Ukraine in 2005. The opposition parties are taking over governments because people are unsatisfied, and most of these governments had been in power for over a decade, (Schroder and Chirac in the early nineties, Canada in the nineties. Blair, Newt Gringrich in the US, it's a very interesting phenomenon.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 14:55:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

France?

happened in France

The right-wing government has been in power there for a long time.  Different leader but same party.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 15:40:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True, but ...

... any French government is going to be problematic for, well, everyone else :)

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 17:45:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha... very true

The French socialists and the ruling right-of-center coalition seem much closer together than the two parties in this country in any case.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 17:53:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha... very true

The French socialists and the ruling right-of-center coalition seem much closer together than the two parties in this country in any case.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 17:53:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep ...

Remember it was Socialist President Mitterand who sanctioned the bombing of the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior, whose son was an arms-dealing crook, and who got his government mixed up in the Rwanda genocide to an extent we probably will never know.

We also sometimes tend to forget that President Chirac was perhaps President Bush's biggest Iraq critic in western Europe, while Prime Minister Blair one of his strongest supporters.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 18:17:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blair possibly

could have won again. One of the reasons why Labour is doing so poorly right now is that Gordon Brown is awful. They should replace him with Miliband. Unfortunately the Lib Dems haven't really taken advantage of the situation like the Conservatives have.

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by: Progressive America @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 00:15:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno

Blair seemed to be pretty roundly disliked.  But I suppose ya never know, if anyone could have pulled a rabbit out of a hat it's Blair.  At least Blair was a great speaker.  Brown is a poor speaker by American standards, much less British standards.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 01:32:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I posted on two DCCC mailers in NM-01

A couple days back at my blog. This year is crazy for us in New Mexico; the next two months should be insane.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

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by: fbihop @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 02:29:32 AM UTC

Thanks for the links

I loved seeing the mailers.

Darren White has earned the right to have his picture posted beside George W's forever.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 19:55:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's your take on NM-02

I've heard a ton about NM-01 and that race seems to look very good for us, especially that last SUSA poll.  But I've heard next to nothing out of NM-02.  Teague sounds like a very good candidate for that district.  What chances do you give us there?  It would be great holding all three NM districts.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 01:35:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And all three NV districts too!

Not to mention full D delegations from states ranging from RI to WY.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 04:15:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The more I hear about the NV-03 race...

The more I think we're going to win handily.  We really lucked out in having our original candidate drop out and Titus jump in.  I just get the feeling with a candidate this strong and registration trends breaking our way that Titus will win this by a surprisingly big 6-10 point margin.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 17:57:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CNN... losing credibility by the day

Their frontpage poll at CNN.com:

Quick Vote

Did Obama's selection of Biden as a running mate help the GOP?
Yes
No

Remember way back when they were a reputable news agency?  I almost don't.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 21:43:42 PM UTC

This is what we have to work with.

Profoundly depressing.

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by: James L. @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 21:55:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]