Sept. Senate Cattle Call

1 = Most likely to flip

1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. MN
6. AK
7. OR
8. NC
9. LA
10. MS-B
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. ID
15. TX
16. NE
17. KS

MN/AK is a tough call, but that's what I'm going with. I expect at least 6 of the top 8 to flip.  

---

by: vicupstate @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:15:00 PM UTC

Here ya go

1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. NH
5. AK
6. MN
7. OR
8. NC
9. MS-B
10. LA
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. NE
15. KY
16. ID
17. TX
18. KS

---

by: Populista @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:22:19 PM UTC

Flip Mania

1.VA
2.NM
3.NH
4.CO
5.AK
6.MN
7.OR
8.NC
9.MS-B
10.GA
11.KY
12.OK
13.ID
14.LA

I consider all other races completely safe.

---

by: allstar2256 @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:22:38 PM UTC

Moo

1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Minnesota
7) North Carolina
8) Oregon
9) Louisiana
10) Mississippi-B
11) Maine
12) Oklahoma
13) Kentucky
14) Idaho
15) Kansas

---

by: blueandwhite31 @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:24:30 PM UTC

The List

1.  VA
2.  NM
3.  NH
4.  CO
5.  AK
6.  MN
7.  NC
8.  OR
9.  GA
10. MS
11. ME

Not much jumping around this summer.  I think we are in great shape to win at least five, and keep expanding the map, giving us 8 good shots and three others that may become real races.  All with nothing on defense (although maybe LA is closer than ME?)  

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by: hilltopper @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:28:34 PM UTC

Landrieu wins so 7-9 more Dems

1.  VA
2.  NM
3.  CO
4.  NH
5.  AK
6.  NC
7.  OR
8.  MN
9.  MS
10. MN
11. GA
12. KY
13. OK
14. TX
15. ID
16. KS
17. NE

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:32:24 PM UTC

10. ME

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:32:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Things are looking pretty good

1. VA

2. NM

3. NH

4. CO

5. Alaska (unless Stevens is acquitted)

6. NC (the Hagan/Dole race is for real - no longer just a dream)

7. OR

8. MN

9. LA (I'm feeling increasingly better about Landrieu's chances)

10. MS - B

11. GA (if Obama really works the state, African-American turnout could be enough to push Martin through)

12. ME  (Is Tom Allen going to be able to break through in time? The numbers aren't moving fast enough right now...)

13. OK (sleeper race here -- Inhofe's numbers are unimpressive and Rice is a good candidate -- but still an incredibly tough state)

14. KY (Not out of reach, but doesn't feel like it is coming together)

15. NJ (Lautenberg should be okay, but not entirely out of the woods)

16. TX (but Noriega just isn't raising enough money)

17.  KS

18. NB

19. ID

---

by: terje @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:34:34 PM UTC

sept

1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  Colorado
4.  New Hampshire
5.  Alaska
6.  Minnesota
7.  Oregon
8.  North Carolina
9.  Mississippi-B
10. Maine
11. Georgia
12. Oklahoma
13. Kentucky
14. Louisiana
15. Idaho

---

by: Anesthetic @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:36:30 PM UTC

here goes

1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC
7. OR
8. MN
9. MS-B
10. LA
11. ME
12. GA
13. OK
14. ID
15. TX
16. NE
17. KS


Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

---

by: lordpet8 @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:43:57 PM UTC

List

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Louisiana

That's it, in my view. I don't think LA will flip, but it's the only Dem seat with any chance of that.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:47:49 PM UTC

Order

Virginia
New Mexico
Alaska
New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oregon
Minnesota
Louisiana
North Carolina
Mississippi
Kentucky

---

by: Paleo @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 16:52:54 PM UTC

NC

Everyone seems to be ranking NC below Oregon - a race where Merkley has never been able to poll above Gordon Smith for significant amounts of time. Maybe with a DSCC moneybomb we'll see that race move, but for now, my list is:

Tier 1:
1) VA
2) NM
3) NH
4) CO

Tier 2:
5) AK
6) NC
7) MN
8) MS-B
9) OR

Tier 3:
10) ID
11) KY
12) GA
13) OK
14) TX

And that's it - I don't think any other races are competitive or even have the potential to become competitive this year.

---

by: mkpowers @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 17:47:54 PM UTC

I have Oregon

Ranked high. I think Smith is the most likely Senate candidate to lose in a wave. In a normal year, he'd probably win but I think Obama's coattails deliver Merkley the victory.

1.VA
2.NM
3.CO
4.NH
5.AK
6.OR
7.NC
8.MN
9.MS
10.ME
11.LA
12.GA
13.OK  

---

by: safi @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:10:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

List

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Minnesota
7. North Carolina
8. Mississippi (special)
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Idaho
12. Oklahoma
13. Maine
14. Nebraska
15. Texas
16. Kansas
17. Louisiana (D held)
18. South Carolina
19. New Jersey (D held)

Georgia and Kentucky are about in the same place right now.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:13:04 PM UTC

Oops, I forgot Oregon

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi (special)
10. Georgia
11. Kentucky
12. Idaho
13. Oklahoma
14. Maine
15. Nebraska
16. Texas
17. Kansas
18. Louisiana (D held)
19. South Carolina
20. New Jersey (D held)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:14:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You forgot Poland. (eom)

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by: James L. @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:31:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hahahhaha

Well, you can never blame him for not being exact. lol

---

by: Venslor @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 19:52:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senate

VA
NM
NH
AK
CO
NC
MN
___
I think we will win those

MS
OR
LA
___
They are possible but not likely

ME (As a former Mainer, I am routing for Tom but it looks less likely
__
KY
GA
TX
NE
KS
ID
Real long shots

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by: cwlidz @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:31:51 PM UTC

Top 20

1.   VA
2.   NM
3.   NH
4.   CO
5.   AK
6.   MN
7.   NC
8.   OR
9.   MS-B
10. LA
11. KY
12. ME
13. GA
14. ID
15. OK
16. TX
17. NE
18. KS
19. NJ
20. SC

---

by: stevenaxelrod @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:41:20 PM UTC

Most likely to flip

I have a method of using fundraising data combined with polls to measure vulnerability.  This is what I came up with, as the list most likely to flip:

1 - VA
2 - NM
3 - AK
4 - NH
5 - CO
6 - NC
7 - MN
8 - OR
9 - MS
10 - ME
11 - KY
12 - GA
13 - ID
14 - TX
15 - LA
16 - OK
17 - NE
18 - KS
19 - NJ

I think the first 2 are solid for us.  Alaska, New Hampshire, and Colorado are in decent shape as well, especially given the funding disparity between the DSCC and the NRSC.

As it stands, I think the battle for a filibuster-proof (and Lieberman-proof) Senate is uphill.  We'd have to win all of our top 10 prospects and only 5 of those 10 are with us today.  The environment gives us a decent shot at numbers 6 through 10, but I don't think we'll win them all, and right now I don't think we'll win any outside of the top 10.

That said, I am particularly bullish on Jim Martin in Georgia and Andrew Rice in Oklahoma - they are our best prospects at a genuine upset outside the top 10, particularly because polling shows momentum on their side.

Inside the top 10, I also think Liddy Dole remains in danger as long as North Carolina remains a presidential battleground, and Gordom Smith is vulnerable precisely because Oregon is not a battlground this year.

---

by: kendg8r @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:51:52 PM UTC

My Guesses

1.  VA
2.  NM
3.  NH
4.  CO
5.  AK
6.  NC
7.  MN
8.  OR
9.  MS*
10. ME
11. LA
12. GA
13. KY
14. TX
15. ID
16. NJ
17. OK
18. NE
19. TN
20. KS

---

by: sicembears @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:51:54 PM UTC

By most likely to flip...

REP SEATS
Solid D
1. VA
Likely D
2. NM
Lean D
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
Tossup
6. OR
7. MN
8. NC
Lean R
9. MS-B
10. ME
Likely R
12. KY
13. OK
14. GA
15. ID
16. TX
17. KS
18. NE

DEM SEAT
Lean D
11. LA

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:56:01 PM UTC

Go Dems, Go!

Only 59 days left until we can wallow in results, rather than speculation!

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska

6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota

9. Mississippi (B)
10. Maine
11. Georgia
12. Kentucky
13. Louisiana
14. Oklahoma
15. Idaho
16. Texas

The first section is the likely flips, then tossups, then longer shots.

I'm frustrated that Tom Allen hasn't closed the gap more in Maine... as a left-leaning moderate Rhode Islander, I was sure that Susan Collins would go the route of Lincoln Chafee.  Surely Mainers aren't too far an ideological leap from us!  Perhaps the all-important senate power hinging upon nabbing that 51st seat was what helped put Sheldon Whitehouse over the top in 2006.  I'm still holding out hope for Allen though, which is why Maine's above Georgia and Kentucky.

P.S. If Ted Stevens wins another term, I'll lose all faith in humanity!

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by: tommyiaf @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:56:47 PM UTC

So True

P.S. If Ted Stevens wins another term, I'll lose all faith in humanity!  

I'm ready to write off Alaska for the near future if that corrupt, unpopular SOB manages to beat a well-respected Mayor of Alaska's biggest city.  Tony Knowles losses were bad enough in 2004 and 2006.  If we don't win this one I'm never donating to AK candidates again.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 20:17:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

readygo

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire

6. North Carolina
7. Oregon
8. Mississippi
9. Minnesota

10. Louisiana
11. Maine

12. Georgia
13. Oklahoma
14. Idaho
15. Nebraska
16. Kentucky
17. Texas
18. Kansas

actual prediction: we win all of the first five, three of the next four (the tossups), Louisiana, and if McCain implodes, another one from the end of the list.  Probably gain of 8, maybe McCain gives us 9.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 18:57:31 PM UTC

my listing

In likelihood of of flipping:

1.  VA
2.  NM
3.  NH
4.  CO
5.  NC
6.  AK
7.  LA  (Palin may bring out more GOP turnout)
8.  MN
9.  OR
10 (tie) MS-B and GA

Still strong for Democrats, but I'm concerned about turnout now, with a higher GOP turnout, Dems' gains may be limited.

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by: mikeel @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 19:21:00 PM UTC

The Big Fourteen

1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska (only the last poll suggested that this was even close)

6) North Carolina (an incumbent in the low to mid-40s is in trouble - even without the Obama GOTV operation)
7) Minnesota (Franken stays close and the ads are almost nonstop already, unfortunately the 3rd Party candidate complicates things)
8) Oregon

9) Louisiana
10) Mississippi-B

11) Maine
12) Oklahoma
13) Kentucky
14) Georgia (Martin's a good candidate and black turnout will be through the roof)

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by: st paul sage @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 19:24:34 PM UTC

People are now paying attention!

  And what do you know, Democratic senate candidates are performing better than they did in August.

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. North Carolina
8. Minnesota
9. Maine
10. Mississippi
11. Louisiana
12. Kentucky
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma

24, Male, GA-05

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by: cilerder86 @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 19:52:59 PM UTC

Races with Zero likelihood of Flipping (i.e. SAFE) Not Listed

Set to Flip:
1) Virginia - Senator Mark Warner
2) New Mexico - Senator Mark Udall

Damn Good Chance to Flip:
3) Alaska
4) New Hampshire
5) Colorado

Work It Hard (Time & $$$) & Can Win It:
6) Oregon
7) North Carolina
8) Minnesota

Hard Races, Tough to Pull Out Wins:
9) Mississippi-B
10)Maine
11)Georgia

There are those races where people tend to think "it can be a race" at the end (KY, ID, TX, NE, OK, KS), but I just don't see it going past what is shown above. As for Landrieu in LA, she fits in around #11 or #12.

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 20:02:04 PM UTC

senate flips

Don't listen to naysayers:
1. va
2. nm
3. nh
4. co
5. nc
6. mn
7. or
8. ak
9. ms-b

all others...no realistic chance for a flip

i'm betting 1-8 flip

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by: bklonsky @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 20:13:47 PM UTC

why not

just 1-9, then you got all your bases covered.  :)

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by: Andrew @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 22:34:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

flips

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi-B
9. Oregon
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
12. Georgia
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Idaho

What kind of crazy year is it when these lists can get 16 seats long?

---

by: briguy578 @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 20:49:55 PM UTC

What kind of year? A crazy wave year

We'll take about a dozen seats in this map-changing, realigning, wave year election.

Lots of open seats because Repub incumbents bailed out before the outraged voters could drop the guillotine.

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi B (more or less), Idaho, Nebraska, and the potentially open seat in Alaska. We'll win 6 of these 7. In Idaho our man Larry LaRocco has been probably the luckiest politician in America this cycle. He's on a roll and I'm not gonna bet against him. In Nebraska, Scott Kleeb is a smart fellow, but he hasn't yet figured out how to beat Mike Johanns in this race.

A handful of red party Senators in blue state seats. Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, heck, even North Carolina looks like it will be a blue state this year. Figure 4, and maybe 5. Collins in Maine is an enduring masterpiece of fraudulent moderate image.

Hey, that was 10 or 12 easy ones right there.  But we need a couple more.

Beating incumbents is always harder, and we're trying to beat some red party sitting Senators in red states. But in a wave year you win some nobody expected you to win.
Kentucky boasts the Repub Senate Incumbent in Chief, who is a crusty old s.o.b. with plenty of CoH, and a similar guy is going against him for our team. May our crusty ole guy with millions win.
Georgia was looking good, as one of Obama's battleground states, receiving lots of advertising and a fierce effort to register new voters, and Jim Martin rising in the polls. Then today I read that the Obama campaign has stopped advertising in the peach state. Hmmn. That could be bad news. Or it could be, yeah conspiratorial of me). Or perhaps the DSCC concluded that a noisy media effort for the black candidate at the top of the ticket was going to hurt the white guy running for Senator.
Texas, I haven't given up on Rick Noriega. Short form: Bloc voting among Hispanics for him as one of their own plus bloc voting from AAs for one of their own plus the Obama ground game to bring every Anglo Dem to the polls, no megamillions needed.
In Oklahoma we have a perfect contrast between a young good guy in Andrew Rice and an old bad guy in Sen Inhofe. This is a good year to be a young good guy up against an old bad guy, even in Oklahoma.
Bob Tuke in Tennessee is another good guy running but his problem is that he's up against a bland guy.
And FiveThirtyEight gives Conley in South Carolina a 2% chance of flipping that seat, twice as good odds as Bob Tuke. But I dunno nothing. Nothing here.

Yeah, I read the instructions, I just didn't follow them. Others have ranked the races well. I just sort of grouped mine with commentary. And before I forget, no way will any Democratic Senator be defeated this year. No way, no how, no McSame, no fake Kennedy. So we'll end up with about a dozen seats.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 22:11:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, not necessarily

"Lots of open seats because Repub incumbents bailed out before the outraged voters could drop the guillotine."

Virginia, John Warner is just old.  If he ran for re-election, he probably would have succeeded.  

Same applies to Domenici in New Mexico, however he retired for suffering from a form of Dementia IIRC.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 22:25:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Corrected

I think my observation applies to a lot of open House seats, but the Senate, not so much. Yeah, Warner is old. He'll be 82 next February. I dunno if the voters would have told him "Goodnight." Maybe no leading Democrat would have been so rude as to run. Well, maybe so and he could have been in trouble by election day on account of voting like other repubs plus being even older than McSame.  

It's New Mexico where no leading Democrat was hungry enough or brave enough to consider running against Dominici. The voters would probably have been denied the opportunity to turn him out if his health issues had not forced the matter.

In Colorado, methinks Wayne Allard was going to get an opponent, and was going to lose. If not lose, get the scare of his life and a most unpleasant experience altogether.

In Idaho, Larry Craig wasn't planning on retiring either, until he tried to make the wrong connection in the airport mens' room.

In Nebraska, I guess Chuck Hagel was just sick of it.

In Mississippi, greed was a major factor, but not to forget a whiff of scandal involving a relative iirc.

In Alaska, greed was a major factor, perhaps the only one.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 05:39:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Collins in Maine is an enduring masterpiece of fraudulent moderate image.

Name one Republican moderate who is not.

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by: fai calif @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 22:58:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Olympia Snowe.

My boyfriend's mom met her in Bangor for a nurses union picnic. Not many Republicans would show up to any event with the words 'union' in the title.

Her newphew was gay and died of AIDS in the late 80s. She took him in when his parents refused to care for him in the end. In my opinion, regardless of politics, that makes her a pretty cool lady.

Susan Collins isn't the worst Senator in the world but she's no Olympia Snowe. That's for sure.

---

by: Tyler Oakley @ Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 23:46:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's awesome

I knew there was a reason I liked her.  Republican or not, I'd be pretty damn happy with her as my Senator, as long as her being there doesn't ruin the Dems having control  :).

Speaking of the union thing, I remember Palin's speech when she said her husband was in a union and everyone cheered as she expected them to cheer and I was like, wtf, so now it's a great thing to be in a union?  Oh yeah, only when those unions dont get uppity.    

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by: Andrew @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 16:41:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

lol

"uppity"

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:32:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah

I typed that and was like, uh, am i allowed to say that or no, and then I was like, f it, I'm gonna.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 20:57:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We seem to be

the only two still holding out our love on Noriega man.  I dropped him down to my 13th spot but there's this gut reaction that won't let me let go.  I would say a slight majority of my friends here in Texas are Republicans.  And amongst this 20-something crowd of politically knowledgeable Republicans, Cornyn isn't exactly the bees knees.  Texas politics is funny.  If Hillary does her job right while she's down here, I wouldn't be suprised to see Noriega at least keep it close.  Also if Noriega can tout his millitary service and his record on gun rights in the next 2 months.

---

by: itistherabbit @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:59:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senate Rankins

1. Virginny
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colarader
5. Minnersoter
6. Palinville
7. North Caroliny
8. Peach State
9. Oregon Trail
10. Mi crooked letter yada yada

I likes NC, GA and Miss because of demographics and registraton.

Not so much about Minn and Oregon.

Also like Oklahoma because of cost. Still think we could get Texas with money.  

---

by: politicalal @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:33:13 AM UTC

I can't figure out that last one

The rest I get.  lol.

Also, speaking of "Rankin"...I wonder who the Libertarian is in WY-AL this year?  (In 2006 it was Thomas Rankin, IIRC.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:44:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Before I go out and get drunk

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. North Carolina
9. Mississippi-B
10. Georgia (yes Georgia)
11. Maine
12. Oklahoma (you got 2 months Andrew, you can do it)
13. Kentucky
14. Texas
15. Louisiana

To Be Continued: Nebraska and Idaho.  Let's see how it shapes up.  Sorry Kansas.

It's been promising recently.  12 really, really in play seats.

Now I'm off to argue politics, whilst drinking, with a libertarian and a socialist so I'll amend this later.

---

by: itistherabbit @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 02:42:13 AM UTC

September

Tier One - Almost guaranteed flips...

1.) Virginia - Sometimes I forget this is a Republican held seat at the moment
2.) New Mexico - I'm not sure who will win bigger here, Udall or Obama.
3.) New Hampshire - Only one of two Kerry states that McCain has a real shot in. However, Shaheen should win big, and might even help Obama at the top.
4.) Colorado - See New Mexico, only it will be closer.

Tier Two - Lean Flip...

5.) Alaska - If Stevens is convicted and can't get off the ticket, he's done. If he is exonerated, he wins with the help of Palin. If the GOP force him off, it depends on who can replace him. I'm assuming he will be on the ticket, and will found guilt of at least one charge, but not all.
6.) Minnesota - The lastest ads by Franken have been great, and he's back to neck-and-neck in the polls. (In fact, the latest has him up by one point.) Add in Obama's strength in the state, and Franken should be lifted over the top.

Tier Three - Toss-up...

7.) Oregon - Obama is running strong here, but Merkley is lagging behind where he should be at this point. It's not a loss, but it is not as close as I expected it would be. They have to hammer Smith on his voting record. Use his name and Republican in the same sentence every time, multiple times in every ad.
8.) North Carolina - The last two polls have Hagan ahead, but they were both partisan polls. The last independent poll showed it was a tie, which is enough to call it a toss-up. Also, Ensign pulled money out of the race here. Not sure if this is good politics, or pay-back for Dole screwing up last election cycle.

Tier Four - Leans Retention...

9.) Mississippi-B - The latest polls have Wicker pulling ahead. But some argue the polls are flawed because there will be no party ID on the ballots. Not sure if this is true, or if it is enough to give Musgrove a serious shot.
10.) Maine - Collins is not a moderate, but the media in Maine treat her as one. Unless Allens can fight against this perception and win, he's toast.
11.) Georgia - Martin's win here give the Dems a shot at unseating Chambliss. Not a great shot, but a shot nonetheless.
12.) Louisiana - Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the poll. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to fund-raising. Landrieu has the advantage when it comes to the political climate. However, the Republicans need a win. If they go two cycles without picking up a single Democrat head Senate seat, 2010 will get UGLY. I expect them to throw everything they have at Landrieu. I expect her to win, but they will waste resources here and make it close.

Tier Five - Likely Retention... (Order nearly meaningless here.)

13.) Oklahoma - Rice has run a good campaign, and Inhofe is borderline insane. (I'm being polite.) However, Inhofe has a lot of money, and there are better targets for the Democrats. Had it been a weaker year for the Democrats in terms of pick-up opportunities, Rice might have got the resources he needed to win.
14.) Kentucky - McConnell would be a major victory for the Democrats, but I think they will wisely let Lunsford pay his own way, which means he won't have the resources necessary to win.
15.) Idaho - LaRocco has run an amazing campaign for little resources. However, the state is one of the reddest in the Union. Perhaps if he goes ahead with those debates that include the other right-wing candidates, they can shave enough votes from Risch that LaRocco can win this. It's not likely, but it is possible.

Tier Six - Safe barring a scandal...

Texas
Nebraska
Kansas
Tennessee
Alabama
New Jersey
South Dakota

(For the last two, replace scandal with health problems.)

Tier Seven - Even getting caught with a dead girl or a live boy won't flip this seat...

Mississippi-A
South Carolina
Wyoming-A
Wyoming-b
Every other Democratic held seat

---

by: C.S.Strowbridge @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 04:21:39 AM UTC

My picks are changing after the top eight

1) VA
2) NM
3) NH
4) CO
5) AK
6) NC
7) MN
8) OR
9) GA
10)MS B

I feel very good about these eight. Not so with any of the rest except my #11 but there are no Dems in my top fifteen.

11)ME
12)TX
13)KY
14)OK
15)ID
16)KS
17)NE

and the no way no how last six challenges.

18)TN
19)SC
20)AL
21)MS A
22)WY 1
23)WY 2

For the Dems LA and NJ are now as off the chart as the remaining ten.

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by: politics64 @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 04:45:20 AM UTC

Here's mine

Top tier (I'd be surprised if any of these don't flip.

1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK
6. NC (actually, if any more polls show a Stevens comeback I may have to flip 5 & 6)

2nd tier

7. MN
8. OR
9. LA

Longshots (but not impossible)

10. MS
11. ME
12. KY

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by: LanceS @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 13:00:59 PM UTC

September Consensus Plus Trends

With 32 entries so far, here is the consensus for September.  The numbers in parentheses are the change since August and the change since June.  NC=No Change.

1. Virginia (NC,NC)
2. New Mexico (NC,NC)
3. New Hampshire (NC,NC)
4. Colorado (+1,NC)
5. Alaska (-1,NC)
6. North Carolina (+3,+3)
7. Minnesota (+1,+1)
8. Oregon (-2,-1)
9. Mississippi (-2,-3)
10. Maine (NC,+1)
11. Georgia (+6,+8)
12. Louisiana (-1,-2)
13. Kentucky (-1,-1)
14. Oklahoma (+2,+2)
15. Idaho (-1,+2)
16. Texas (-3,-2)
17. Nebraska (+1,-2)
18. Kansas (-3,-5)

Biggest Gainers since June:
+8 Georgia
+3 North Carolina
+2 Oklahoma
+2 Idaho

Biggest Losers since June:
-5 Kansas
-3 Mississippi
-2 Nebraska
-2 Texas
-2 Louisiana

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by: DCal @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 03:27:18 AM UTC

Good work, DCal. It's like having our own polling outfit. n/t

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by: nrimmer @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 04:21:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah that's great DCal

GA & NC make a lot of sense though I suspect GA is a very expensive market and Chambliss has a big money advantage.  Is Musgrove advertising in MS?  The underlying dynamics - no party ID, record black turnout, Musgrove being a very good retail politician seem great, but the $ difference is big.

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by: st paul sage @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 16:24:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How good is Musgrove at stretching campaign funds?

A la Shea-Porter/Boyda/Kissell?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 21:26:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

most likely flippers

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. North Carolina
8. Mississippi-B
9. Oregon
10. Louisiana
11. Maine
12. Georgia
13. Kentucky
14. Idaho
15. Oklahoma
16. Kansas
17. Texas
18. New Jersey
1-2 are safe, 3-5 are likely, 6-9 are tossups, 10-13 are likely to stay where they are, and 14-18 are probably safe.  

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

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by: jimmich @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 14:41:14 PM UTC