NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 5 in New Poll

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51

Darren White (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55

John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama’s statewide efforts here. It’s also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White — he’ll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA’s last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn’t seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich’s favor — if anything, the opposite.

21 thoughts on “NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 5 in New Poll”

  1. and their AL-02 numbers.

    That just seems like too good of news. Obama up by 14? Seems a little too good.

    If true though, great news. Let’s turn New Mexico all blue!

  2. The presidential numbers are consistant with a statewide Mason-Dixon poll. By itself SUSA might look odd, but it has backup. By the way, how did Kerry do in NM-01?

  3. It shows Heather Wilson, the incumbent, lame duck GOP Congresswoman with a -5 approval rating. Because of her ties to Bush, probably.

    Heinrich has room to grow — and he’s already about 50 percent. The demographics look right, the Hispanic number might even be a little low — in other words, this looks like a good opportunity to make Heinrich our next Congressman.

    I would like to see a poll on NM-02 now…

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