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Competitive Michigan Legislature Races

by: Menhen

Sat Aug 30, 2008 at 11:39 AM EDT


We all know that Information about State Legislature races are hard to find.  They are also very important to redistricting control of congress in 2012.  

Here I have listed all or most of Michigan's State House of Representatives competitives races, as well as the candidates, most recent fundraising figures, and the partisan turnout from last month's primary election.

I have also roughly rated the districts a tossup and leans.  Democrats are heavily favored to control the House, and they will likely gain several seats.  Here is a map of the Districts http://www.vcsnet.com/State.ph...  But just remember that there are 110 districts, of which the Democrats control 57.  The lower the district number, the closer the district is to Detroit.  The higher the number, the farther north.

Menhen :: Competitive Michigan Legislature Races
Republican Seats Leaning Democrat
108th- (Open, Tom Casperson,R)
Judy Nerat (D) vs. Mike Falcon (R)
CTD- $10,172 vs. $20,192  COH- $6,099 vs. $7,542
Turnout- 67% Democrat, 33% Republican

39th- (Open, David Law,R)
Lisa Brown (D) vs. Amy Peterman (R)
CTD- $39,776 vs. $69,061  COH- $25,207 vs. $8,945
Turnout- 57% Democrat, 43% Republican

Republican Seats Tossup
62nd-  (Open, Mike Nofs, R)
Kate Segal (D) vs. Gregory Moore (R)
CTD- $56,394 vs. $25,064 COH- $43,837 vs. $12,325
Turnout- 53% Democrat,  47% Republican

61st- (Open, Jack Hoogendyk, R)
Julie Rogers (D) vs. Larry DeShazor (R)
CTD- $54,170 vs. $27,890  COH- $33,755 vs. $2,145
Turnout- 75% Republican,  25% Democrat

1st- (Open, Ed Gaffney, R)
Tim Bledsoe (D) vs. Mary Treder Lang (R)
CTD- $13,850 vs. $66,877 COH- $-6,638 vs.$6,273  
Turnout- 58% Democrat,  42% Republican

101st- (Open, David Palsrok, R)
Dan Scripps (D) vs. Ray Franz (R)
CTD- $92,686 vs. $30,258  COH- $29,296 vs. $2,459
Turnout-  77% Republican,  23% Democrat

78th-  (Open, Neal Nitz, R)
Judy Truesdell (D) vs. Sharon Tyler (R)
CTD- $39,439 vs. $36,629  COH- $26,186 vs. $5,711
Turnout-  79% Republican,  21% Democrat

70th-  (Open, Judy Emmons, R)
Mike Huckleberry (D) vs. Thomas Ginster (R)
CTD- $16,920 vs. $11,840  COH- $-996 vs. $3,720
Turnout-  82% Republican,  18% Democrat

24th-  (Open, Jack Brandenburg, R)
Sarah Roberts (D) vs. Brian Brandenburg (R)
CTD- $44,586 vs. $47,921  COH- $11,644 vs. 31,835
Turnout-  62% Democrat,  38% Republican

32nd-  (Open, Daniel Acciavatti, R)
Jennifer Haase (D) vs. John Acciavatti (R)
CTD- $28,991 vs. $18,444  COH- $18,836 vs. $4,401
Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

Republican Seats Leaning Republican
51st-  (Open, David Robertson, R)
Michael Thorp (D) vs. Paul Scott (R)
CTD- $13,415 vs. $137,549 COH- $1,799 vs. $22,225
Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

98th-  (Open, John Moolenaar, R)
Garnet Lewis (D) vs. Jim Stamas (R)
CTD- $75,579 vs. $49,509 COH- $39,350 vs. $15,045
Turnout-  66% Republican, 34% Democrat

97th-  (Tim Moore, R)
Kathy Wilton (D) vs. Tim Moore (R)
CTD- $0.00 vs. $59,590  COH- $0.00 vs. $36,719
Turnout-  59% Democrat, 41% Republican

21st-  (Open, Phillip LaJoy, R)
Dian Slavens (D) vs. Todd LaJoy (R)
CTD- $50,477 vs. $67,270 COH- $26,725 vs. $47,248
Turnout-  51% Republican, 49% Democrat

73rd-  (Tom Pearce, R)
Bruce Hawley (D) vs. Tom Pearce (R)
CTD- $30,179 vs. $21,515  COH- $22,545 vs. $5,527
Turnout-  80% Republican, 20% Democrat

Democrat Seats Tossup
106th-  (Open, Matt Gillard, D)
Andy Neumann (D) vs. Peter Pettalia (R)
CTD- $27,595 vs. $27,444  COH- $10,671 vs. $3,749
Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

65th- (Mike Simpson, D)
Mike Simpson (D) vs. Ray Snell (R)
CTD- $143,105 vs. $13,465 COH- $101,886 vs.$4,556
Turnout-  56% Republican, 44% Democrat

37th- (Open, Aldo Vagnozzi, D)
Vicki Barnett (D) vs. Paul Welday (R)
CTD- $45,608 vs. $60,883 COH- $32,118 vs. $34,506
Turnout-  50% Republican, 50% Democrat

Democrat Seats Leaning Democrat
23rd- (Open, Kathleen Law, D)
Deb Kennedy (D) vs. Neil DeBlois (R)
CTD- $19,859 vs. $14,845  COH- $7,077 vs. $4,787
Turnout-  66% Democrat,  34% Republican

20th- (Marc Courriveau, D)
Marc Courriveau (D) vs. Jerry Vorva (R)
CTD- $147,164 vs. $0.00  COH- $96,421 vs. $0.00
Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

91st- (Mary Valentine, D)
Mary Valentine (D) vs. Holly Hughes (R)
CTD-$146,002 vs. $81,921 COH- $102,681 vs.$55,711
Turnout-  62% Democrat, 38% Republican

75th- (Robert Dean, D)
Robert Dean (D) vs. Dan Tietema (R)
CTD- $80,004 vs. $34,834  COH- $31,430 vs. $7,455
Turnout-  63% Republican, 37% Democrat

84th- (Terry Brown, D)
Terry Brown (D) vs. Anna Kabot (R)
CTD- $57,086 vs. $6,215  COH- $47,586 vs.
Turnout-  73% Republican, 27% Democrat

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Great info
It stinks that no state Senate seats are up this year!  With that many open seats I take it Michigan has term-limits.  What is the range you think we're going to pickup in the state house this year?  In looking at your ratings I'd guess at least 3 net gain.  That would be nice, giving us a 60-50 or better edge.

Yes,
Michigan has a limit of three two-year terms in the House and two four-year terms in the senate.  The senate was a big dissapointment for us last time (we only picked up one seat).  In regards to how many seats I think we will pick up, It's hard to tell.  Especially because the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal could hurt Democrats in Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties, where many competitive seats are located.  I would say 3-7 net gain.  I made a mistake, though.  Democrats control 58 seats, not 57.  So we would have 61-65 seats, if my predictions hold.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Not sure if you're familiar with the website
But I get most of my info on state races from ourcampaigns.com.  That website has info on every state house and senate race for every state.

Here's the link I was looking at for the MI state house.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Co...

Looks like the MI state house went from 63R/47D in 2002 to 58D/52R in 2006.  Already gaining 11 seats in just two elections is pretty damn impressive.


[ Parent ]

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