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NH, NY, MN, WI: Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up

by: James L.

Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 7:41 PM EDT


Primary day in New Hampshire, New York, Minnesota and Wisconsin (as well as Delaware, Rhode Island, and Vermont) is on September 9th, and midnight tonight is the deadline for congressional candidates to file their fundraising reports with the FEC. We're rounding up all the numbers as they come in in the handy chart below. All numbers are in thousands, and cover the period of July 1st through August 20th:

We'll fill in the blanks in real time -- as best we can.

Special note: look at how pathetic Robert Straniere is in NY-13. $15K raised for his campaign, total? This guy is truly hated and unloved in Staten Island. What a D-grade sadsack loser of a candidate for the GOP.
James L. :: NH, NY, MN, WI: Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up
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NH, NY, MN, WI: Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up | 22 comments
wow, look at Madia
leading the pack again. He's turning into a good candidate. Outraised Paulsen the last two times now. Almost one million CoH.

Massa's take was pretty impressive too, while Maffei spent huge, almost 600 thousand dollars? What is trying to do, deliver a knockout punch early? I would really like to see a poll there, as I haven't seen one since Sweetland's ridiculous poll he released right after he got in showing only like 36% of voters commited to voting for Maffei when he got 49% last time running against a moderately popular eleven term incumbent. Poll also showed him having something like only 50% name rec. among likely voters, after spending nearly one million on his campaign last time. We need to demand a new poll here, from somebody, SUSA or Reserach 2000, either one. DAvid, maybe you could make some suggestions to Markos next time Dkos pays for another round of polling.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Madia
I think will win 55%-45%.  While we dont have polls to give us an indication where this race may be, Madia is the right candidate in the right year for the right district.  MN-3 is trending blue pretty quickly, there are still some suburbs that vote 60% Republican but this where we are making inroads and where we can start building up DFL statewide vote totals.  I dont think Obama will win this district quite yet (unless it's a 10-point blow out in MN) but by 2012, Obama will win this district by probably a solid single digit percentage.  Same as in MN-2.  These are seats that will eventually be ours and that we'll lose once the Republicans make a comeback in a decade or so but until then, we can win them.  MN-6 I dont see us ever winning unless it's this time.  The part of the district I'm from are parts that probably LOVE Bachmann and every policy position she holds...
[ Parent ]
IL-6
This district somehow feels like the IL-6 of 2008.  When you think about it, they're both suburban districts, representative by a long time republican, with a minority Iraq war veteran running as a democrat in both, and a Republican state legislator.  I really hope we win this one, though, even though my gut says  a narrow loss.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Where are you finding these numbers?
For example, as of 7:30 PM Central time today, Kagen and Gard of Wisconsin both still had only the 2Q reports (through 6/30) posted on the FEC website, unless I am looking in the wrong place.  
Try here
[ Parent ]
Where's NY-21?
It is a terrific open seat battle among four contenders for a Democratic-held open seat in the Albany area.  The Albany Project has been covering it at some length.  So far, three of the four have filed reports: Paul Tonko, Phil Steck, and Darius Shahinfur.  Amazingly, the longshot Shahinfur has been raising cash and has the biggest COH total of the three ($192 K).

Tracy Brooks has yet to file but she's running her third ad of the cycle.  Steck has the first attack ad.  Everybody has endorsements.

Any idea who has the upper hand in that primary?

[ Parent ]
State Rep. Paul Tonko
Everything I've read and heard about the race points to Tonko being heavily favored.  The only poll on the race had Tonko with 42% and noone else over 14%.

Tonko's pic looks creepy.  He resembles a younger Dick Cheney.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ca...

He does sound like a solid progressive in any case.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, he does look creepily like Cheney.
I hope he's quite the opposite.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Tighter?
The local bloggers at The Albany Project seem to see Tonko and Brooks in a close race followed by Steck with Shahinfur as the outsider.  Brooks seems to have the money edge.  Tonko is being portrayed as slime by some bloggers : claiming endorsements that went to other candidates in his ads, for example (Albany County Democratic organization, several unions).  Steck's only ad attacks both Brooks and Tonko.  That seems ro indicate that he's running third.

Given the fake "endorsements", I'd put little credibility in the poll.  An independent poll would have more value but the one that counts is creeping up on us (primary day)

[ Parent ]
A few notes
What's with Kagen? Is he not bothering to do fundraising and spending his own money again?

Massa is kicking Kuhl's ass in fundraising.  I really think this is his race to lose.

Nice to see Powers putting up good numbers.

I think a lot of incumbents perform less with these "mid-reports"
I think most of them wait till the end of the third month, then put their time in for fundraising.  
[ Parent ]
I'm loving Shea-Porter's numbers.
Dominate those two goopers, you diva!
8 things
1. Shea-Porter's demise is greatly exaggerated. The queen of not raising money is raising more money then her opponents. They will have a bloody primary, her party will be unified, it's a democratic leaning year and a democratic leaning district.

2. McMahon is going to crush Harrison, sadly. Thankfully he will blow out his opponent in November and hold the seat forever.

3. What's the deal with Hall?

4. Gillibrand is going to BLOW out Tredwell, same with Maffei.

5. I'm really worried about Jack Davis. He's spending tons of money, Powers is sitting on his money. If Davis has a semi-decent ad designer he will win.

6. I'm feeling really good about Eric Massa's chances, cant wait to see his ads.

7. A Minnesota take on Minnesota's races. Walz is running a amazing campaign and will win easily. Madia is doing very impressive stuff, has a great ad campaign and is well poised to win. Sarvi and Tinklenberg will do better then Walz's opponents but don't look like they are going to win. I think Tinklenberg has a slight chance beacuse Bachmann is Bachmann and things can change but you've got to raise more money then that to beat Kline.

8. Kagen is going to need to drop a cool million or two to hold off Gard.

Check the chart again
Powers spent $464K - a huge sum, except Davis spent a fucking million. Fuck that crazy fucker.
[ Parent ]
I'll say it again.
If after all this time, someone in NY-26 buys into the bullshit that Jack Davis is selling, they are a fucking disgrace to the Democratic Party.  Claiming ignorance only goes so far.

As for that $464K, what did that go towards?  TV ads?  Mailers?  Staff?

[ Parent ]
Don't forget Bachmann
That's good news about Madia, but in Minnesota we have a small chance to sweep the House delegation. Moreover, one of our incumbents is Michele Bachmann. Please help end our embarrassment and help Tinklenberg catch up in the cash race. Steve Sarvi too could be a strong candidate if he gets the resources.
Where's Jamshad Wyne?
or did I also miss some news about him dropping out or something?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Updated now
He's spending his own money, but is still a huge loser.
[ Parent ]
He's still there...
...has a few signs up around the area.  Has paid to have "Wyne for Congress" stickers put on the Staten Island Advance.

He's running.  Spending his own money.  And who really knows?  As I said before this isn't a race that is arousing high interest.  The Republican side being even worse than the Democratic side with all their pols sitting on their head.  I'm not sure what if anything is going to generate turnout.

Democratic turnout should be abysmal.  Republican turnout should be catastrophic.  The endorsed candidates SHOULD win but with hardly anyone turning out to vote who the hell knows?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Any SI residents getting any direct mailings?
Other than McMahon I mean. I've gotten several McMahon mailers but nothing else. Maybe the Reps are targeting S.Brooklyn??
[ Parent ]
They have money to produce mailers?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
NH, NY, MN, WI: Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up | 22 comments

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