Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.
The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.
The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.
More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.
Bonus finding: in CO-04, McCain is barely leading Obama 48%-46% in this historically Republican district. As a reference point, Bush got 57% of the vote in CO-04 in 2000, and then got 58% in 2004.
And why should all Democrats be attacking the Republicans' ties to Big Oil?
Mirroring national polls, the survey found that the economy was by far the biggest issue on the minds of voters, as 41 percent of respondents said Congress should focus on that issue above all others. Immigration was second with 11 percent of respondents saying that is the most pressing issue. All other issues, including Iraq, terrorism, gasoline prices and the environment, polled in the single digits.
The survey found that voters overwhelmingly blame oil companies for the high price of gas. Thirty-eight percent of respondents blamed oil companies, whom Democrats have been seeking to link to Republicans in paid media advertising. Congress and environmentalists were tied for second in blame for gas prices, with 14 percent.
