35-40%

That's the best we can hope for in the 7th this year.  It's about what we took there in 2006.  Trust me, I live in the 24th, but the 7th district ends near me and I'm very familiar with the district.  We have zero chance of winning it.  The registration trends for the 7th district are in our favor, but it's a drop in the bucket.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 06:02:44 AM UTC

FL-07

In a state with a lot of competitive house races FL-07 won't get oxygen this time. FL-13, FL-24, FL-25, FL-18, FL-08, FL-21 are repub districts with races that are or might be competitive not to mention our defence in FL-16 and FL-22.

Faye needs to run again in 2010 to try and get on the radar then. Her poor fundraising doesn't help her cause either.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

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by: benawu @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 07:28:07 AM UTC

Benawu

you killed your own argument there.  

You list 6 districts in the state that are competetive and your dead on with all of them.  You also list 2 defensive districts and while I don't see the 22nd as in much danger, it is still a Freshmen Dem who will no doubt get some help. You don't list the 9th, where John Dicks is on the Red to Blue list, you don't list the 10th, where a Local Mayor has gotten involved and you don't list the 6th where Tim Cunha has raised over 100,000 dollars.  

Its not a matter of having the oxygen sucked out of the race just because there are a bunch of other races in the state.  There are 2 key things to creating your own oxygen.  Fundraising is one of those keys and Cunha has atleast gotten that down in the 6th.  Even though he is unlikely to be very competetive, he is atleast making a ripple in the water because he has the money to do so.  They key to raising that money and the most important thing to creating oxygen, is having a good candidate.  

Look at the top takeover chances, we have top tier candidates all over the place in those races.  The lack of oxygen in Florida's 7th isn't because there are many races around it, its because there isn't a good candidate in the race.  What Democrats need to do for 2010, is recruit someone good.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 11:08:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

hhhhhmmmm

Fair point sorta kinda. Cunha has a net position of -$24K with a debt of $121K. Dicks has a net negative position also. As for the 10th well it will be super competitive when Young retires and not before (my bet is 2010).

Mate to be fair I was trying to be gentle about the 7th but your examples do not hold water. However your contentions about fundraising and candidate quality are spot on.

Time will tell.  

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

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by: benawu @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 14:53:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

my examples

the point wasn't that the examples were in a good position, the point was that those races will be more competetive than the 7th and they aren't in a good position, however, they have done what is needed to atleast make it intersting.  Raising less than 20,000, even if your in a net positive position as of right now, is even worse than raising hundreads of thousands like Dicks and Cunha and being in a net positive.  Atleast those 2 have had money to spend.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 20:05:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah man

Just one problem, she faces Clyde Malloy in the August 26 primary. She could lose, but fear not as she should win. I have always wanted to suggest adding this race to the races to watch column.  

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy

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by: SE-779 @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 13:53:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Primary

Clyde Malloy has no chance. The fundraising is a problem, but there is a lot of grassroot support. Republicans are not that crazy about Mica. Faye has lots of crossover support. The voters just need to be educated more. In 2006, Jack Chagnon got almost 37% of the vote with just partisan voting. Things has improved for Democrats a lot since then. This race should be on the radar. She is a progressive candidate and that's what we need in Congress.

https://secure.actblue.com/con...

Spread the word~

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by: kimw @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 14:08:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mica was my congressman until 2002 redistricting

As much as I hate his policies and what he represents, his constituent services were and remain the best I ever encountered.  On a few occasions when I called his office to make my views heard Congressman Mica actually talked to me personally, one time we debated an issue for damn near an hour.  You don't get that from many politicians out there.  I'm not saying I'd ever vote for him, but that is one of the reasons Mica usually outperforms the demographics of his district.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Aug 24, 2008 at 22:30:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow.

Just wow...at what you describe his constituent services to be.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 03:32:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's what his job is

I don't see the "wow" factor in that. What has he done to make him worth a 9th term? He signed the contract with america and promised not to run after 6 terms. He's trying for his 9th.

He's also not that great with transportation, even though people assume he is. They don't actually do any research on him. He stays under the radar, since he's not as flashy as Feeney. In fact, he is worse than Feeney. He is the most extremist Congressperson in Florida.

 

Check out Faye Armitage. She has what it takes to defeat John MIca. The only thing she is lacking is money. If you would like to get on her email list, please email kim@fayeforcongress.com.

We need true Progressives to get things done! 

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by: kimw @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 16:14:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Worse than Feeney? Not a chance

Mica is far right, but he's nowhere close to being in the same category with Feeney.  

And I wasn't trying to say Mica was a good congressman on the issues, I was only stating how effective his services are and that he's a hard worker.  Feeney's services are horrendous and and he and his staff rarely even reply to letters or e-mails, and when they do it's usually standard GOP talking points.  That's why Feeney is so much more vulnerable than Mica ever will be.  

As for term-limits, the voters could care less.  Do I think it's bad to run for office pledging to run only X number of terms and then violate your pledge?  Yes.  But the vast majority of GOP office holders who signed that promise also broke theirs and I cannot think of a single one who was voted out of office for it.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 18:19:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vast majority

These Republican members of the class of 1994 did not run for re-election (at least in the general election in 2000:Matt Salmon (AZ-1), Joe Scarborough (the TV guy, FL-1), Helen Chenoweth (ID-1, think there was a scandal involving her husband), David McIntosh (IN-2), Mark Sanford (ran for Governor, SC-1), Jake Metcalfe (WA-2).  At least one Democrat, Paul McHale of PA-15 sugned the term limit pledge and did not run for re-election.  But then McHale bought the Republican line hook. line and sinker.  He was the only northern Dem in the House to vote for Bill Clinton's impeachment.  I lived in that district and McHale was really hated by Democratic activists and elected officials, at least the people I knew (the local mayor included).

If anyone was voted out for failing to observew term limits it was either one of the six Republicans or Brian Bilbray who was voted out in the general vs. Susan Davis.  You can scratch Sanford so the list is only six long.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 20:51:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ya I realize that

I know many republicans did honor their agreement, but those who didn't never really had the voters turn on them.  People like Bilbray were republicans representing Democratic leaning districts who probably lost more due to demographics than anything else.  The wave in 1994 was just so high that it swept in a lot of republicans in unfavorable districts who were bound to lose after a few cycles.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Aug 27, 2008 at 02:08:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

None of them lost an election

It turns out that Scarborough ran for re-election in 2000 and was re-elected in 2000 but quit his office the following year.

Chenoweth, "descibed as a true believer", honored her pledge although she called term limits "bad policy." Salmon honored the pledge and then ran for Governor of Arizona in 2002 (and lost).

Term limits is, indeed, a toothless wonder with no real constituency behind it.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 21:13:37 PM UTC

Faye Armitage Wins in a Landslide

In case no one was aware, Faye easily won her FL-07 Primary. She is ready to face her opponent, John Mica, in the general election.

Faye Armitage (D) 17,977 64%
Clyde Malloy (D) 10,142 36%

Send a progressive to Congress. Donate Now.

www.actblue.com/page/fayeforcongress

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by: kimw @ Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 04:11:06 AM UTC