Civitas (8/14-17, likely voters, 7/14-17 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 41 (38)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 44 (47)
Chris Cole (L): 4 (2)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
First we had SUSA, and then Insider Advantage, and now Civitas all showing a rapidly tightening race, probably in no small part due to the pummeling that the DSCC and Dem allies are giving Dole on the airwaves over the issues of her effectiveness and her ties to “big oil”. This is all fantastic news.
The folks over at Public Policy Polling have their own poll in the field, and their early results show Hagan beating Dole. It’s enough for PPP’s Tom Jensen to ask: Is “Dole falling apart“?
I would think one of the cardinal rules of politics is not to remind people of your flaws. That’s why I’m amazed to see that Elizabeth Dole’s new ad responding to the DSCC’s ads about her #93 effectiveness ranking devotes its first four seconds to repeating that unfortunate little fact about herself! Don’t spend your own money to remind people about an ad that’s doing you a lot of damage. […]
I’ll admit up until a couple weeks ago I didn’t really think Kay Hagan had any chance at this. But the DSCC’s campaign on her behalf has been brilliant, and I’m frankly amazed at the numbers we’ve seen the first two days of our tracking poll- we’ll probably release the North Carolina Senate numbers Tuesday.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we’re loving this trend.
Surely this will boost fundraising and enthusiam among her supporters.
According to another website, electoral-vote.com, these are some other polls out yesterday:
Kansas Roberts 58-31 over Slattery from Survey USA
NH Shaheen 52-41 over Sununu from Arkansas G?
NM Udall 51-41 over Pearce from Rasmussan
NH looks good, NM a little disappointing, and Slattery (KS) needs a Andrew Rice-like surge.
– There was a 78-18 white/black breakdown of the poll.
– The actual breakdown is 75.7 white, 21.0 black.
– The party breakdown of the poll was 46D, 35R, 19U.
– The actual breakdown as of last week is 45.3D, 32.8R, 21.8U.
Maybe the difference is due to their likely voter screen, or maybe Hagan is ahead.
I’m not going to say “I told you so”, but I’ve been pretty consistent in my comments on this site that Kay has a big chance to win this one. I’ve believed it from the time she entered the race, and nothing has changed my mind. I know some folks felt when the state-wide office holders chose not to run (preferring to wait for the easy pickings in 2010) that this was a recruiting miss. But those of us who have followed Kay throughout her career knew that she’s an outstanding candidate. She’s my state Senator now, and will be my U.S. Senator next year!