| The phantom poll of Nebraska's Omaha-based 2nd CD is now unmasked. SSP has obtained a copy of the poll's internals, and we'll share the top lines with you below.
Anzalone Liszt (7/27-8/2, likely voters):
Jim Esch (D): 38
Lee Terry (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4.0%)
In 2006, Jim Esch held Lee Terry, a five-term but largely unaccomplished congressman, to a surprisingly close 55-45 margin, despite running an underfunded campaign in an R+9 district. Judging by these numbers, if Esch can assemble more resources than the $400K he raised in 2006, he might be able to run an even closer race. Indeed, with only 48% name recognition (to Terry's 93%), he clearly has room to grow.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats only trail Republicans by five points (42-37), which, all things considered, seems to be a dramatic turnaround from the 22 and 18-point drubbings that Bush delivered to Kerry and Gore here in 2004 and 2000, respectively. If Dems are ever going to make a breakthrough in Nebraska, you would figure that Omaha would be ground zero for their resurgence.
Here's another key number from the poll:
Barack Obama (D): 42
John McCain (R): 46
Obama's within striking distance of McCain, and if he can manage to win here, he'll pick off a solid red electoral vote. I wouldn't bet the bank on it, but the numbers clearly show you why Terry keeps on mouthing off about the surge of "Obama-Terry voters" in the district.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican. |
