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GA-Sen: Martin Trails by Six in New Poll; SSP Upgrades Race to "Likely Republican"

by: James L.

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 3:27 PM EDT


Rasmussen (8/14, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/17 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (40)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 50 (51)
(MoE: ±4%)

Wow. It looks like the DSCC's recent internal poll of this race showing Martin trailing by 36-42 may not have been an outlier, after all.

Excellent numbers. Could Georgia be one of the sleeper Senate races of 2008?

In light of Jim Martin's primary win and these most recent numbers, SSP is upgrading its rating of this race from "Safe Repubican" to "Likely Republican".
James L. :: GA-Sen: Martin Trails by Six in New Poll; SSP Upgrades Race to "Likely Republican"
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GA-Sen: Martin Trails by Six in New Poll; SSP Upgrades Race to "Likely Republican" | 36 comments
Whoa,
These numbers are so nice. Should Martin close the gap against Chambliss and, maybe, lead in the polls some, Martin could win come Election Day. Go Martin.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
Chambliss is at 50%
If this poll were in favor of a Republican, you'd quickly note how the Democratic candidate was already at 50%, and that even though it might be closer than one like, it's still fairly safe for the Democrats.  

Sorry to disappoint, but Martin has no chance.

[ Parent ]
Uh...
Individual races must be looked at in a different light, this poll confirms large movement towards Martin in Georgia. Does this mean that Martin is favored, 50-50, or that he's even close to being a favorite? No, Chambliss is still favored, but this poll does suggest the race is more competitive than it was originally thought.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Uh...
Usually, the 50% benchmark is used to gauge an incumbent's strength, not a challenger's.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Uh...
No.

Context is everything.  If this were a Minnesota poll, with Coleman at 50 and Franken at 44, then yeah, that would be bad news.  That race has been engaged for months now, everyone knows who Franken is, the state is left-leaning, and Coleman at 50 with a six point lead in August would be a good sign for that particular incumbent in that particular race.

This is a different set of circumstances though.  This race has not been engaged yet, there's been very little campaigning on either side, and it's Georgia, and yet Chambliss is already only at 50 and Martin already is at 44.  That's a great sign, because it means that were a campaign to begin, there's a surprisingly small gap to close.  

Coleman being at 50, in Minnesota, after everything Franken and the DSCC have thrown at him, is a good sign for him (were it to be true, which I think it mostly is); Chambliss being at 50, in Georgia, before a campaign has begun sucks for him.

See, that wasn't hard.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
if he were a challenger
if he were an incumbent, I'd be worried. Like I am with Landrieu. The difference here though, and why if I were a Republican I'd be more worried about this race than I am as a Democrat worried about Mary Landrieu's race right now is that this continues to show a steady gain for the challenger and a decline for the incumbent. It went from Chambliss by twenty plus, to Chambliss by ten plus, then went to this new six point lead in two consecutive polls. I like this news, because Chambliss is one of the more radically conservative Republicans, he's a fear mongerer, has no respect for the Constitution, and ran one of the most despicable campaigns I've ever seen in 2002. But, still, I don't buy these numbers yet, not in a state like Georgia, the only state that seemed to buck the national wave in 2006, the only state where Republicans made widespread gains and nearly unseated two incumbents, (though both those incumbents are in safer territory this year). I'll need a third poll, a trifecta, before I buy this tightening. Usually three polls, all showing the same results, and it's usually an accurate picture of the race at that time period. The only problem is though that Chambliss has five million or so dollars to spend and I'm not even sure Martin has one million. This is one state where the DSCC might have to drop the bombs if it wants to win. Though organized labor might also drop a few million here as Martin had their backing in the primary. Martin is raising more money and moving up in the polls because of the momentum from his primary victory, so these are the result of a "bounce", now his only problem is to maintain this closeness.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Uhhh...
No. Kthanxbi.
[ Parent ]
Depends on the state
If Mary Landrieu was at 50%, then yeah, you're correct

but if a poll comes out showing Frank Lautenberg or Dick Durbin or Carl Levin at 50% with his opponent in the mid forties, I'd be shit worried. My comment would be something to the effect of;

"WTF?!?"  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
New MN-Sen poll
Probably not the right place for this but there is a new KSTP TV - SUSA poll out on the Minnesota Senate Race.

Coleman 46%
Franken 39%
Other 11%
Undecided 5%

The Bad News is Franken trails by 7. The good news is that is down from 13 in the last SUSA poll.

BTW the 11% other is probably for the Independence Party candidate (Likely Dean Barkley).

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Forgot the Link
http://kstp.com/article/storie...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Interesting
Rasmussen showed a big movement toward Coleman this month.  Good to see SUSA shows the opposite.  I suspect they both had bad polls last month and were closer to the true state of the race with the latest round of polling.  Definitely still within striking distance for Franken.
[ Parent ]
That's good news.
SUSA usually says Coleman leads by 10.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen Poll: 5 Point lead
Rasmussen released a poll today too and it confirms the poll mentioned above.  It shows
Chambliss   48
Martin      43

With leaners, it's 50-44.  

http://rasmussenreports.com/pu...

I don't understand...
The poll that you're linking to is the exact same one that we're discussing in this thread.
[ Parent ]
You might want to find some way to indicate leaners vs. no leaners
So that it's clearer.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
A competitive seat in Georgia???
Damn, the news for the GOP gets worse and worse everyday. I mean today it was like the sky fell for the NRSC. Both Rice and Martin within striking distance? This is getting out of hand, honestly. If those two can keep it up that's 13 seats that are competitive. Wouldn't surprise me if another 1 or 2 more get close. I'm hoping for Idaho or Nebraska, but who knows.

The rate things are going maybe Orrin Hatch will get knocked off by what's his name. Well, probably not but I wouldn't want to be a GOP Senator right now.

Orrin Hatch isn't up for election this year
In fact, Utah doesn't have a seat open this year. Ooops. ;)

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Are you serious? I thought there was that silly kid!
Doesn't Glenn Marcus Harvey have on his "Democratic Futures" page some guy from Utah?

Either way it shows how closely I follow the politics of Utah. Let me make a prediction. The GOP wins Senate seats for the next 1000 years until Jesus himself comes down and casts the Republican blight into eternal darkness. You heard it here first.

[ Parent ]
My bad, that kid's running in Wyoming against Enzi. n/t

[ Parent ]
Ahem,
The Utah guy is Morgan Bowen, he is running against Rob Bishop. The guy in Wyoming is Chris Rothfuss, he is running against Senator Michael B. Enzi.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Wow
I'm surprised people paid any attention to my sig links, lol.

And I thought I was just doing wishful thinking...

Got any suggestions on what I should do with my signature, though, or any suggestions about those two ActBlue pages?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Suggestions for your ActBlue page,
I am suggesting some candidates for your Democratic Future page. I am suggesting John Thrasher in AZ-02, Bill Hedrick, Jeff Morris in CA-02, Larry Johnson in CA-21, Hal Bidlak in CO-05, Hank Eng in CO-06, Bennion Spencer in UT-03, Paul Corden in SC-04, Rob Russell in TN-01, Ludwig Otto in TX-06, Joel Gill in MS-03, Bill Haas in MO-02, David Kurkowski in NJ-02, Phil Avillo in PA-19, Nick Sparks in AL-04, Andrea Miller in VA-04, Roy Carter in NC-05, Joseph Larkin in MI-11, Max Yashrin in NE-01, Jay Stoddard in NE-03, Jim Bryan in FL-01, Jay McGovern in FL-04, John Russell in FL-05, Tim Cunha in FL-06, Faye Armitage in FL-07, Bob Hackworth in FL-10, Doug Tudor in FL-12, Robert Neeld in FL-14, Bill Gillespe in GA-01, Stephen Camp in GA-03, Bill Jones in GA-06, Doug Heckaman in GA-07, Jeff Scott in GA-09(My home district), Bobby Saxton in GA-10, Bud Gammon in GA-11, Erik Fleming in MS-A, and the winner of the WY-B primary(Goodenough or Carter).

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Whoops,
Bill Hedrick is running in CA-44

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Also
I bet you that Chris Rothfuss would be get a bunch more attention if he weren't running against Enzi, but Barrasso instead...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yep,
Rothfuss would definitely get more attention against Barrasso because Barrasso is not a Long-Term Incumbet like Enzi is, and this makes Barrasso more vulnerable than Enzi.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Yeah,
it is just soooo good that the GOP is in such disarray, the best thing that could happen for us is if both Wyoming seats and MS-A(Cochran) become competative. If so, we could win those. Hip hip Hooray.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Idaho is already within 10 points
We're just waiting for Nebraska at this point.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
GA-Pres poll is up - McCain by only 9
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

McCain (R) 53%
Obama (D) 44%

If we can stay within 10 is will REALLY help us downballot in races like the Senate race and GA-08.

I am also hoping
That if Obama gets within 10%, we could pick up seats such as GA-01, GA-03, GA-06, and GA-07.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
I know I'm probably going to regret this, but I've had a few beers, so what the hell!?!
Under what crack-induced delusion are you operating under to think any of these races (with the POSSIBLE exception of GA-06 if all the tumblers fall into place) are going to be anything other than blowouts.  These are the most conservative districts in Georgia, who drew token challengers for the most part.  For example, the Democrat in GA-03 has raised like 20K.  So other than just telling me to "think positive" how could anyone see these as potentially competitive?
[ Parent ]
I love blogging.
You can be drunk as shit and its still damn fine journalism. God bless the internet!
[ Parent ]
Fuck yeah. (eom)

[ Parent ]
In my defense ...
I was more pleasantly buzzed than drunk as shit -- and I'm still at my desk before 8am!  God bless being mostly Irish!
[ Parent ]
Well,
You're Irish. I am mostly American, but i am somewhat Irish, Scottish, Polish, Indian, and Slavik

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Sorry,
It's just that I tend to think positive about all races with Democrats running.  

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Jane Kidd
Also... The Democratic Party of Georgia is in better shape now than it was in 2006. My impression is that it has had a positive development under the leadership of Jane Kidd. Don't know if anyone else has the same impression?
GA-Sen: Martin Trails by Six in New Poll; SSP Upgrades Race to "Likely Republican" | 36 comments

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