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VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 8:53 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (8/10-12, likely voters):

Tom Perriello (D): 30
Virgil Goode (R-inc): 64
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Those are some ugly numbers - very much reminiscent of the 64-36 drubbing that Goode delivered to Democrat Al Weed in 2004 (Weed closed the gap to 59-40 two years later before throwing in the towel). Having not spent much in the way of advertising yet, I'd expect Perriello's name recognition to be quite weak. He should be able to close the gap some once he spends his considerable resources on the race, but this looks to be an extremely tough hill to climb.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.

(H/T: ChadInFL)
James L. :: VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll
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VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll | 39 comments
Oh c'mon
Either this district is beyond redemption or these numbers should move a lot. Goode is currently getting:

32% of liberals
35% of blacks
50% of pro-choice
69% of independents

so...un-saveable or what?

Exactly
He's down 30 points in a poll that pushes learners very hard before Tom has done much of anything.

Once those shift to maybe 5 percent of liberals, 5 percent of blacks, 10 percent of pro-choice and 40 percent of indies this is a much closer race.

Good to see someone polling it though.

Oh and by the way. At the debate today Goode attacked a few Swing State Project bloggers. More on that tomorow.  

[ Parent ]
Well
Maybe there some people who might still think he's a Dem, even though He switched parties a long while ago

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
Ouch
Whether or not this is accurate, that poll is likely to destroy any establishment belief in the viability of his campaign, which means he won't get independent DCCC expenditures. And whilst he might gain a bit from Virginia being ground central for Obama, McCain will put a lot of effort in there too so he can't sneak up on the outside either.
Don't worry, not everyone will lose hope
I sure as heck won't.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Uh
what does that have to do with DCCC money and establishment support?
[ Parent ]
32% of blacks?
I think not SurveyUSA. Why is this polling firm, which has an otherwise good reputation, so horrible at polling minority support for candidates? They had HRC getting 83% of Hispanics in the Texas primary and last week released a poll where McCain got about 25% of blacks in Missouri? He'll be lucky to get 5% this year.
Cross Tabs don't make sense
This poll clearly tests name ID and name ID only. Only 5% undecideds at this point? No way. SurveyUSA pushes respondents to make a call and that'll always go towards the incumbent. That's just one of a couple things that don't smell right here...
WOW!
That is so nice.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
Yeah It Is...
For a Republican/Independent ;-)
[ Parent ]
Uh
Yes man, it is.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
I don't even think Goode is good for Indies.
I mean, Tom is a fresh political face with good ideas. The idea that old Goode is somehow a better option is laughable once you've been confronted with all the information. Ceteris paribus, Tom Perriello wins hands down.
[ Parent ]
Please
share what you like about Virgil Goode. In what way is the district or country better off because of him?
[ Parent ]
shhh, Lucas. Be vewy, vewy quiet.
SE-779 hasn't been here tonight. Lets hope that we don't bring him back by talking to him.
[ Parent ]
Umm,
I don't know man. I am starting to think Perriello is the better choice.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Ok, here's where we were in 2006
At this stage in the 2006 race this is where SUSA had the VA-05 race:

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

7/26/06 poll

Goode (R) 59%
Weed (D) 35%

Our candidate (Weed) improved very little between that poll and the 2006 election.  

He also
he no money to improve on that.

We clearly are starting out from about the same place but we have a vastly superior candidate this time around.

[ Parent ]
Yes. In 2006,
we were caught in a battle of "Goode vs. Weed".  Hard to win that fight in a Republican tilted district.  
[ Parent ]
Unity Ticket
If they ever ran together, they would get my vote.  ;)
[ Parent ]
Of topic But I must mention this
Gunman kills Arkansas Democratic Party chairman
My thoughts and Sympathies go out to the Family of Bill Gwatney. May he rest in Peace
http://ap.google.com/article/A...


Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
Translation
Some folks need to dial back their expectations of how many seats are truly competitive and avoid head-explosions when the DCCC pull the plug on some of these red-to-blue races.
Agreed. Can't win them all.
There has got to be a few races that do nothing more then suck up resources from the NRCC and candidates. I'm not sure if Goode vs. Perriello is competitive but its looking very much like Safe Republican at this point. I'm just kinda torn because Tom is such a great candidate. It's a shame.

Just thinking, maybe Perriello will focus on winning this race over the next few election cycles. Like Gary Trauner or Eric Massa, this one might take a few years to make competitive.

[ Parent ]
Depends on how you define competitive
Goode always was rated as likely to be re-elected with the possibility that Periello could make it close and spring a surprise. This poll doesn't change that. Personally, I'm still looking at a high teen net gain as a job well done.
[ Parent ]
Still
A lot of people have sky-high expectations and think we can win anywhere and everywhere. I worry they may feel crushed in November and find reasons to blame Obama for it, especially if he is elected ("he ran a selfish campaign", etc). I sat down last week, looked at every race and came up with a 17-25 seat gain. There is a scenario for another 30 seat pickup, but it would have to be a crazy night.  
[ Parent ]
To be fair most who post here at least are quite realistic
I don't see many if any posts saying they expect more than a repeat of the 30 or so from 2006.
[ Parent ]
17-25 figure sounds about right
That's about what I'm thinking at this point.  The 30 seat plus scenario you mention I'd give about 3-1 odds of happening.  Everything will need to go right for those kind of gains.
[ Parent ]
On the other hand
we CAN win virtually anywhere. That's different than saying we WILL win everywhere. The whole point of competing everywhere is that you throw everything against the wall and see what sticks because you can't know before you try.

...unless you're Rahm Emanuel of course.

[ Parent ]
Couple Charlie Cook race ratings changes (both good)
MISSOURI | District 9: Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ALABAMA | District 2: Lean Republican to Toss Up

Both moves make sense to me.    

Yes
They make plenty of sense to me too. Go Bright. Go Baker.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Bright
I'm really excited to have him running.  Him, Carmouche, and Segall, it's time to reclaim the South.
[ Parent ]
I agree
They are very good candidates who deserve to win.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Yes, great recruiting in the deep south this year
We should see some gains in the deep south, which a year or so ago looked like the one region we may lose seats in.  

Even Cramer's retirement in AL-05 worked out great for us.  We have a strong recruit against a repub 3rd tier opponent there.  Also, the two GA seats that were nailbiters in 2006 look goos.  Barrow is a shue-in and Marshall seems to be running stronger.

[ Parent ]
Why was the Barrow race so close last time?
What sort of D+2 district was that?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
DINOs
You'll find a lot of people in the region who call themselves Democrats but have not actually voted for one in ages.
[ Parent ]
Well that's not true
The district has a PVI that says it supported Gore/Kerry more than it did Bush.
[ Parent ]
Max Burns was a former Congressman
OK, he only served one term, and was a bit of a walking blooper, but was able to win a solid majority of the white vote in the district.  Barrow is one of many blue dogs who are really getting a pass from the GOP this time around.
[ Parent ]
Probably
Because the district was recently redrawn from a heavily Democratic district to a slightly Democratic district with new constituents, more Republicans, that were familiar with Max Burns, Barrow's 2006 opponent and former congressman.

Waffle House celebrated its 50th anniversary and my steak celebrated its 25th-Larry the Cable Guy
[ Parent ]
Problems connected with blacks
I remember reading about his trouble somewhere.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Ya a couple of things
Wehn Barrow won the district in 2004 it was something like D+5 which was altered to D+2 by the republican gerrymander prior to 2006.  I really think that his biggest problem in 2006 was that he was too conservative and out-of-touch with the African-American base.  
[ Parent ]
VA-05: Goode Has Huge Lead in New Poll | 39 comments

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