Anzalone was right about Childers

This is a partisan poll, but Anzalone's early numbers on the Travis Childers-Greg Davis match-up were right on the money, so I buy them.  

Did you anyone else see the excellent Wall Street Jounral article on Bobby Bright on their frontpage yesterday?  You can't buy that kind of good publicity.  I really appreciated a quote from one of Love's primary opponent's who said Bright was "the man to beat."  

I think Anzalone waited to drop this poll to come right after the awesome WSJ coverage, which has been getting notice in Alabama.

Incredible news.

http://online.wsj.com/public/a...

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:01:22 PM UTC

How do you figure?

The poll was conducted August 3-6.  They need a couple of days to compile their information.  Did they wait an extra five minutes before releasing it?  Haha.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:06:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So, the Bright campaign had no notice of the article?

Uh, that would be wrong.  They had advance notice as this quote from Bright seems to suggest.  

http://www.wsfa.com/Global/sto...

My guess is that this article was weeks in the making, and they knew favorable national coverage was on the way.  

Nice try.  Haha yourself

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:19:49 PM UTC

Who said that? What are you talking about?

You said, "I think Anzalone waited to drop this poll"

I responded, "How do you figure?  The poll was conducted August 3-6."  

I never said anything regarding the Bright campaign's knowledge of the article.  Which is unrelated to the time it takes for Anzalone to release a poll after they conduct it.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:28:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Drop" a poll = Conduct and then release a poll

When I said "drop" what I was referring to was conducting a poll at all and then releasing it.  I am guessing that Anzalone and Bright's decision to do a poll at this time and then release it had a little to do with the favorable impending Journal article.  

Nevertheless, whether or not this was all orchestrated, it turned out extremely well for Bright.  The Alabama TV stations have been covering it, and the Love campaign is not happy, claiming the article was biased, which is funny considering the article's source.  

The WSJ article is really positive, in case you have not taken a look at it.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:34:45 PM UTC

Ah okay.

When you said drop, I thought you meant release, you meant conduct and release.  Got it.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:40:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds reasonable

Bright is exactly the kind of Dem needed to win a district like this one.   Anzalone does have a decent track record.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:47:58 PM UTC

Good news!

These southern districts are really looking great! Hopefully it bodes well for Carmouche and some of the other challenges in the region as well.

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by: Progressive America @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:51:01 PM UTC

Who's Carmouche?

I'm sorry, but there are too many competitive races for my brain to process.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 17:58:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA-04, Paul Carmouche (n/t)

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by: BruinKid @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 18:00:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

just for the record

That's a good thing ;)

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by: Venslor @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 18:25:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA-04 Dem candidate

I believe he is a well-known DA or Sheriff in that district.  He seems to fit the profile perfectly for a Dem in a right-leaning southern district.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 18:43:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He is an eight term

District Attorney for the largest parish in the district, Caddo, which is Shreveport and amounts to some 260,000 people. He has been in office as DA since 1978. He's a popular, well known conservative law and order Dem, and he will win because Republicans are going to nominate one of three unknown self-funding businessmen, and it looks like they're are going to forego there strongest candidate former Bossier Chamber of Commerce Jeff Thompson, and nominate Physician John Fleming, who is spending more money and is more radically anti-abortion. Even my ultra-conservative dominionist christian Uncle is considering voting for Carmouche because he's never heard of the the Republicans and likes Carmouche for his experience and social conservative stances, you see he's still a bit a of a populist.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 19:00:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe you caught it, but there was a poll on LA-04

They didn't release it, but the article noted Carmouche leading his challengers by 13-19 points.  (Due to his high name rec as District Attorney for 30 years.)    

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 18:06:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anzalone...

also did the polling for Don Cazayoux.  Back in May, Chris Cillizza named John Anzalone one of his winners, calling him "the hottest commodity in the consultant business these days".  And the paper also noted this back in April:

The best pollster you've never heard of is expanding his operation to the nation's capital. John Anzalone, of Anzalone Liszt Research, is opening a Washington office to be run by Marc Silverman, a senior associate in the firm. The Democratic survey research firm became among the hottest in the nation after the 2006 cycle in which it conducted polling for Reps. Heath Shuler (N.C.), Ron Klein (Fla.), Paul W. Hodes (N.H.) and Jason Altmire (Pa.) -- all of whom defeated Republican incumbents. "As our Washington-based client list has grown and we have developed a national reputation, opening a D.C. office is a natural next step for our firm," Anzalone said.

He's also done polling for Obama.  Cillizza reports that Anzalone is now also working for Kay Hagan (NC-Sen) and Debbie Halvorson (IL-11).  Anzalone is from Alabama, so working for Bobby Bright makes perfect sense.

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by: BruinKid @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 18:07:45 PM UTC

I think

I also saw their name on a poll coming out of one of the Nevada races.

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by: Rtael @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 19:20:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FYI: Love's own poll has him up two

This per Reid Wilson's page:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Love's own poll, apparently leaked to Wilson, has Love leading 41-39.  It was taken July 21 and 22.  Take it for what it's worth.  I don't buy it simply because Love just got through a disgusting primary that bothered a lot of people there, including many Republicans.

Let me add that I read Reid Wilson every day, and he has a lot of good stuff on his page, Politics Nation, but he is clearly skewed to the right in what he writes.  He likes to frame many of his posts to be favorable to Republicans or unfavorable to Democrats.  It bothers me a bit, but I guess that goes with the territory.  

His line that the polls make reading the race "muddy" are kind of false; if the Republican candidate is up two in his own poll in a R+13 district in rural Alabama, that ain't muddy -- it is bad news for the GOP and its candidate.  Come on Reid, you can do better than that.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 20:38:14 PM UTC

knowing the partisanship of the polls

they are both too optimistic for their respective candidates, which means is Love has himself up only 2, Bright is definitely up...like 5.

This is great. If for no other reason than the Republicans have to defend the Alabama 2nd district with money they don't got.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 22:26:38 PM UTC

I agree it's in between

But Anzalone has a solid track record so I'd imagine the real margin is closer to their poll than the republican one.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 00:10:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Track Record

as of since 2006? Because in elections like 2006 and this year, I can see partisan Democratic polls being close to on the mark.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 02:01:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Wall Street Journal on Mayor Bright

I found this great article on the Wall Street Journal from yesterday detailing the growing strength of Democrats in the South and some background information regarding Bobby Bright.

I especially liked what Jay Love's former primary opponent, state Rep. David Grimes, said of Bright:

"Party means less today than it has in my lifetime in Alabama," says state Rep. David Grimes, who lost to Mr. Love in the nomination battle for the congressional seat. Mr. Grimes says the mayor's ties to southeast Alabama, especially his blue-collar upbringing and conservative values, will serve him well in November.

"I tell you this: Bobby Bright is going to be the man to beat."

I actually thought Bright might win even before the Republicans completed their primary. Now it looks as though he might, but it still looks like a tough climb (if Love's internal poll has any merit to it)

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 03:36:47 AM UTC

I think we are in great position here

even Love's poll shows it as a tossup. C'mon SSP, time for a change!

The key to winning in southern districts IMO is building up a strong record as a local official from a GOP part of the state/district. Childers, Cazayoux, Carmouche, Bright, Musgrove. People like that are going to make us the dominant party in the South again even if it's not as progressive a party as we would like it to be.

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by: Populista @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 04:00:15 AM UTC