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August Senate Cattle Call

by: James L.

Sat Aug 02, 2008 at 12:00 PM EDT


A lot has happened since we last ranked the Senate races in June, so I think it's high time that we do another one of these. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
James L. :: August Senate Cattle Call
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August Senate Cattle Call | 135 comments
Ranks
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (may drop if Stevens is not on ballot)
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Oregon (We just have to be competent to win here, the wave will do the rest)
7. Louisiana (Not out of the woods yet, it looks like McCain is gonna get about 57-60 here)
8. Mississippi - B
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Nebraska

Everything else is off the map as far as I can tell, but I'd keep a watchful eye on Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia (if Martin wins) and Idaho. You never know when dead girl/live boy may occur.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

August Senate Cattle Call
1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. AK
5. NH
6. OR
7. ME
8. MN
9. LA
10. MS
11. OK
12. NC
Forget the rest unless Obama wins in a landslide.
ridiculous
Ok in front of NC? A state that's going to give like 66% of the vote to McCain, olne of the most conservative states in the country compared to one that's going to give McCain maybe 50%? Not to mention Hagan polls an average of ten to fifteen points ahead of Rice who has been twenty to thirty down in every poll I've seen. ME is not competetive, the polling just doeswn't justify putting it at the front, MS should have that spot, because there the polling has been very close. Maybe you've got your priorities or criteria wrong.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Ah I missed this just did one haha.
Senate ranking.
Last weekend in DC after a fun Senate pageship. Figured i'd rank the chamber I was in.
Tier 1:

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska

Tier 2:
6. Mississippi-B
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. Minnesota
10. Louisiana
11. North Carolina

Tier 3:
12. Kentucky
13. Idaho (The Latest poll gave me hope)
14. Kansas
15. Oklahoma
16. Georgia

I still think Alaska is #5 but very close with Colorado. Gonna wait for the primary to see how that plays out and what the GOP does with it.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

a good top ten?
1. Mark Warner, prediction 65-35: VA-SEN, D
2. Tom Udall, prediction 61-39: NM-SEN, D
3. Mark Begich, prediction, 55-45: AK-SEN, D
4. Jeanne Shaheen, prediction, 52-48: NH-SEN, D
5. Ed Merkley, prediction, (unsure, haven't seen enough recent polling), 51-49, OR-SEN, D
6. Ronnie Musgrove, prediction, 51-49, MS-SEN, D
7. Kay Hagan, prediction, 50.5-49.5, NC-SEN, D (I'm very optimistic here)
8. Norm Coleman, prediction 51-49, MN-SEN, R
9. Mary Landrieu, prediction 51-49, LA-SEN, D
10. Susan Collins, prediction 52-48, ME-SEN, R

just my take/.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Ed Markey is a rep from MA
Jeff Merkley is our Senate candidate in Oregon.
[ Parent ]
thanks
also, I thought I was forgetting some thing, I completely left out Mark Udall.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Right now I'd put the end margins
By order of biggest win to biggest loss margin

Wins:
1. VA - Warner by 23
2. NM - Udall by 18
3. NH - Shaheen by 10
4. CO - Udall by 9
5. AK - Begich by 8
6. CO - Merkley by 5
7. MN - Franken by 3
8. ME - Allen by 2

Losses:
9. MS - Wicker by 2
10. NC - Dole by 3
11. KY - McConnell by 6
12. GA - Chambliss by 9
13. TX - Cornyn by 10
14. ID - Risch by 10
15. OK - Inhofe by 11
16. KS - Roberts by 14
17. NE - Johanns by 16

Dem Holds:
1. LA - Landrieu by 5

[ Parent ]
how can you say
that people behind by double digits, whom, seem to have difficulty growing, demograhpically, are going to win, while people that are just barely behind, mainly Wicker and Hagan, but who have much more favorable possible demographic growth. These candidates have shown growth, Allen and Franken have had little poll growth sicne last year. Franken is way down in everything except Rasmussen, so I'm skeptical of his chances right now, though he is turning his campaign around. Still, I wouldn't give him the edge at this time, even if you put huge stock in small, (10-12 point), coattails pulling a candidate over the edge, which is i think where you are coming from. I don't think that would hold water though.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Please, we are not down double-digits in MN
You must be looking at SUSA's poll which VERY heavily oversampled republicans and undersampled democrats.  Adjusting for what the true breakdown in voters likely is would show about a 5-7 point Coleman lead.  I believe the last Resmussen poll has Coleman by 2 points.  Either way it sure as hell isn't a double-digit race.  And yes, I absolutely think Franken will win it in the end.  

I put MN above MS because we don't need astronomical black turnout to win MN.  In MS we must have huge black turnout and a better than usual % of the white vote for Musgrove to win it.  White there is a decent chance of that hapening this year, it's probably worse than a 50/50 chance.  Sorry, but I have trouble being overly optimistic about two states (NC and MS) that have let us down so often in statewide races in recent years.

[ Parent ]
Also
I have high hopes for Obama (and downticket races) everywhere, including the south.  I also think it is safe to bet on high black turnout, and beating Kerry's performance among blacks.

Having said that (and this NOT meant to imply a particular political message -- like Obama must triangulate or any such nonsense), the other key is that Obama is doing very well among whites in some southern states.  I would normally expect that to tighten up.  Maybe it will.  But maybe it wont.

The polling in North Carolina is VERY good, if you assume Obama holds his ground in the white vote -- because the black vote will be better than current polling assumes.  But I think, even if the polling holds up well, I think NC (for example) will be a real unknown until the results come in.

(Edited to say I know this is about the senate races, but the potential for down ticket effects means Obama is never out of the discussion.)

[ Parent ]
I said I discounted
Rasmussen, because there have also been some star-tribune polls, and other polls, all show Franken down considerably, not to mention Coleman hasn't even brought out the big attacks yet. Franken has little room to grow, especially considering many of the controversial things he has said in the past and his very public, very liberal positions, which is not going to help him among moderates and independants, which are coleman's strongest point. Demographically, I don't give him much growth, especially in the rural areas of the state, and within the Catholic vote. Both major demographics.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Very nice predictions!
Not a bad take, it also takes courage to predict percentages, your my kind of junky!  I agree with all except I think Allen and Franken will eek it out about like Hagan!  They will be the Webb/Tester size outcomes of the 08 cycle!
[ Parent ]
thanks, I did completely
forget Mark Udall. Polling is pretty steady in this race, and he is outfundraising and outcampaigning his opponent, but, I think, in Colorado, at this point in time, in a race against a liberal and a conservative, the conservative still has 46 percent floor, which is why Udall can't seem to shake his opponent and break this election open. It'll stay close and competitive to the end, with a probable 52-28, or 51.5-48.5 race. I wouldn't predict a larger than five point victory for Udall, but on the other hand, though I think it will be narrow, I don't see how Schaffer could win, even with a possible Green party candidate taking votes away from Udall, which shouldn't be too much of a problem because Udall has been a pretty steady liberal and environmentialist. There's a reason that Schaffer has only led in one legitimate poll in the entire campaign, and that was only by one percentage point.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
5-9 net Democratic gain
VA
NM
NH
CO
AK (Probably moves up but depends on how things shake out)

OR
LA
MS
MN
NC
ME
KY

NJ
TX
ID
KS
GE
OK

Senate Cattle Call
1. Virginia is for lovers
2. New Mexico is for UFO's
3. Alaska is for Ice Fishing
4. New Hampshire is for Presidential Primaries
5. Colorado is for Denver the Home of the Democratic Convention
6. Oregon is for Beavers
7. Mississippi is for thank God we have Alabama
8. Louisiana is for thank God we have Mississippi
9. Kentucky is for thank God for West Virginia
10. North Carolina is for Duke is Puke , Wake is Fake and NC State is the Team I really Hate

* Keep an eye on Minnesota, Texas, Georgia, Idaho and Oklahoma

Off the map : Nebraska, Maine, Kansas

Kentucky before Minnesota
no way...

Maine off the map, no way...  The DSCC putting $5 million into it, definitely on the map.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
And Minnesota will also be getting 5 million if needed. The DSCC currently has 11 targeted races (VA, NM, AK, NH, CO, ME, MN, OR, MS, KY, NC) and the NRSC said that the DSCC has reserved 44 million in ad time. You do the math. If you don't put investment into the safe states each of those states is going to get roughly 5 million dollars. All of them are in play.

I personally don't get why they have Kentucky on that list though. I know Lunsford's rich and that the polls have him down by single digits but Mitch is sitting on 9 million dollars and can and will easily raise more. He is a brutally effective politician and I just don't think Lunsford can match him and take down the most powerful Republican senator in the nation.

I'd much rather they invested that in Nebraska beacuse we are much closer to start out with cash wise and it's much easier to beat even a popular Republican if they are not a incumbent.  

[ Parent ]
What I said in June
A dozen or so

Safe Democratic
24) Louisiana

Likely Democratic pick-up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Mississippi-B
6) Alaska

Leans Democrat pick-up
7) Oregon

Toss-up
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Kentucky

Leans Repub
11) Texas
12) Maine
13) Idaho
14) Oklahoma
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska

Likely Repub
17) Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Mississippi-A
Wyoming
Alabama
Wyoming

I'm still trying to be conservative, but I can't find much to change. Maybe move Georgia up to Lean Repub. I inserted 17) into my June list to show I know put it ahead of the others in the bottom tier. I could move Maine up a step or two, or put Alaska ahead of Mississippi B, but not to quibble with myself I'll just stick with my June rankings.

And I still expect that at least half of my "Leans Repub" races will be competitive by November, Toss-ups or nearly so. One or two of the "Likely Repub" races could also become competitive, or "Leans Repub" by November. Then in the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all -- but not all -- of the competitive contests, winning 10 or 12 or even 14 seats. Seriously, that's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. This will be a transformative, map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.

you call that conservative?
That is by far the least conservative list I have seen to date.  

Having Mississippi-B as likely Dem, is just rediculous, its a toss up at best.  

North Carolina and Kentucky as toss-ups, we're losing both in the polls in high snigle to low double digits, they are barely lean Republican if not likely Republican at this point.  Even Minnesota should be moved down.  The polling simply doesn't support toss-up status.  

Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho and Nebraska shouldn't be listed anywhere near the Lean Republican category either. There is nothing to support these ideas.

I'm usually one of the last to criticize someone, but when they make a list like this and call it conservative, the issues simple have to be pointed out.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Bottom up or top down
If you make your forecast bottom up, race by race, it's hard at this point to get to 10 or 12 seats going Democratic.

My forecast is top down: If we have a wave year, realigning election, we should grab 10 or 12 seats like the Democrats in 1932 and 1958 and the Repubs in 1980.

Since I believe this is a wave year election, I say we will win 10 or 12 seats, so then I look to see which races might catch the wave. Not that I much care who, I care how many, but here we were asked who, so I answered.

Will there be a wave this year? It started in '06 and is still gathering strength. Everything we saw in '06 we've still got going on: record disapproves for the White House incumbent; even higher "wrong track" poll results; record Democratic Party self-identification; even better registration, field organization, and fund-raising; better candidate recruitment, more resignations, and more open seats; still an unpopular war and a lousy economy for everyone except the Bush-McSame base, the have-mores.

In '06 we nearly swept the field, winning 6 seats, falling short in Tennessee Ford-Corker, Arizona Pederson-Kyl, and for us dreamers, Nevada Carter-Ensign. But we knocked off incumbents in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, and Montana.

Do you see us doing worse in '08 than we did in '06? That we'll win only the open seats and defeat just one or two incumbents?

I expect us to nearly sweep the field again, taking all but one or two of the races that are highly competitive as of October (as Tenn was in '08), making some long-shots, and defeating another six or more incumbents.

What is the universe of competitive and long-shot races going to look like on Election Eve?  I've given you my conservative list of 17 races. I think we'll take 2 out 3 of them in '08 as we did in '06.

I chose not to chance my rankings from June, to emphasize my belief that we will take about a dozen seats, nevermind who or where. If I had to do a do-over, I'd move Maine up the list; Allen seems to be gradually closing in at last. I have put Minnesota among the Toss-Ups, but while I like Al Franken, he carries a lot of baggage as a candidate. I also put Kentucky as a Toss-Up, but Daschle-ing their Minority Leader will be a major upset. We're quite as likely to wake up losing Minn and Kty while winning Idaho and Texas and Oklahoma. But when the dust settles, we'll have 10 or 12 new seats from this wave year election.

I guess the opposite view would be that the wave of '06 is over and things are back to normal. You want to expand on that notion for us?

BTW FiveThirtyEight gives Musgrove a 46% chance of winning based on polling and past results, pretty much a toss-up. But I see a wave that is nationwide. We saw it already in a special election in MS itself, as well as in a House district in Louisiana that borders MS. So I count Mississippi B as a likely Democratic pick-up. That's my call, and I say it's conservative.

[ Parent ]
Great point in there
That the six seats we picked up were from INCUMBENTS!  Incumbents, some longer than one term and well known in their states.  The voters just simply said, fuck you you ruined the country.  Nothing has changed since 2006, the same climate is here but it is even worse because this time, we have the Obama campaign who is going to drive up vote totals in absolutely every state where there is a competitive Senate seat.  

If we can take 6 incumbent seats in 06, imagine how many total seats we'll take when we are also taking 3 open seats almost automatically, and have somewhat openish seats in Mississippi, and possibly in Alaska, or at least then there are special circumstances.  These are 5 seats we could take where we arent even taking on good, solid incumbents who have done nothing wrong but vote wrong on the issues.

If we can knock off even another 3-4 incumbents, thats 8-9 seats.  And then factoring in the Obama wave (there is no way he is not the next president, it just does not add up) then tada, huge Senate wave.  I think it's possible, a little unlikely, I want to see what happens in September to officially declare a wave election, but some days, I'm leaning towards Woody's position.  12 seats is possible.

[ Parent ]
not the point
the idea behind your logic is irrefutable but its not the question that was asked.  

The point of this thread is to label the races as they stand, right now.  Not what you think a wave is going to do to them.  The races may very well turn out to be what you think they will be and maybe Musgrove will blow Wicker away by 10 points or more, but that still doesn't change the fact that as of this second, Musgrove has, like you pointed out, a 46% chance of winnnig thus making the race a toss up.  

If you wanted to say that those were your predictions on how things would ultimately turn out, then thats fine and you should have said so from the very beginning, but to claim that Mississippi-B is a likely Dem race at this moment and then state that this is a conservative idea if rediculous.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Remedial reading?
Here's the instructions from the top of the page:

You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

It does NOT say what you said:

The point of this thread is to label the races as they stand, right now...as of this second...

Since any flipping will take place when the votes are counted, we are being asked to forecast the November results, which is what I have done to your displeasure.

My statement accompanying my rankings uses the future tense three or four times. I did disclose that I am forecasting and not so much assessing the current state of the races. If you had trouble understanding my intention, perhaps you need help understanding written English. Your spelling needs help too. It is ridiculous.

[ Parent ]
remedial reading indeed
based off what info.  Today's info of course.  and today's polling says the race is not likely Dem.  Anyone can see that.  

Of course, if you really are predicting that to be the order of races you think are going to flip, you clearly don't know what you are talking about at all when it comes to the Senate.  I've seen some crazy things but to have Texas, a state that we have barely have a shot at is ranked above Maine, is simply absurd.  

If you actually want to claim credit for that list, be my guest, its not my credibility at stake.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Break it up you two or James will throw you in time out.
Woody's got creative license and skywrnchsr a bad motherf*cker when it comes to moderation. h/t to both of you.
[ Parent ]
But he's still wrong
Why stop when I'm right and winning the argument, but he refuses to back off? I have a right to defend myself. And so:

You (skywretcher509) asserted first that forecasting was "not the point...The point of this thread is to label the races as they stand, right now.  Not what you think a wave is going to do to them."

You were wrong. But when I quoted the instructions, which you had misread, you pulled a new  interpretation out of your favorite place, and now claim that forecasts of flips must be "based on what info. today's info of course and today's polling ..."

You made it up. You simply made up a new rule to suit yourself.

In fact, the point here to try to bring to bear our own insights, knowledge of history, and accumulated observations when forecasting how things will develop in these races between now and November. Fundamentally I am arguing that we will win 10 or 12 Senate seats based NOT on today's polling but on evidence of a wave year, noting a few other factors (e.g. open seats) as well.

Having lost the argument about whether I am going by the rules and then making up your own rules, you then erupt with rude bloviation about another of my rankings. "You don't know what you are talking about," you say ever so humbly, "Texas ranked above Maine is simply absurd."

I know something about Texas, having been born and raised there and all that good stuff. I don't know much about Maine. But I have observed that their incumbent Senator is a skilled operator, as slick or slicker than any of the other fake moderate Repubs still surviving. To me, Susan Collins looks like a better politician than Big John Cornyn. And our guy has been maddeningly slow to gain traction against her. Elsewhere I posted more about the Texas race, so I won't repeat it here.  

In any event, I do claim credit for my list, and I don't need your kind permission to do so.

You seem to think that the right answer will be determined today, perhaps by loudly and rudely denouncing the answers you don't agree with, or perhaps by putting the matter to a vote of readers here. I will wait for the vote in November. We shall see whose forecast is best.

[ Parent ]
How come...
us Texans and people from Texas seem to know everything about Texas politics?  I feel like when I go elsewhere in the country and talk politics, I might as well be speaking German.  I would say that it's a blessing and a curse, a curse because Texas politics is devoid of any common logic whatsoever.  It's never about issues.  It's 50% money and 50% flat out politics.  We're born amateur politicians (apparently the day I was born I had a seat on the Paris, TX city council).  But nothing that really functions beyond the Red River.  "How does Noriega still stand a chance?"  "I don't know.  He just does."   Fuckin' Texas, man.  It's like Twin Peaks but with better mexican food.
[ Parent ]
I'm gonna take the egotism down a notch here.
Not "seem".  We "claim" to know everything about Texas politics.
[ Parent ]
I kind of agree Woody here.
Sky was kind of being an ass about it, and Woody shot back.  Woody has been right, Sky has been wrong.  It's pretty clear cut.  
[ Parent ]
I don't want to start arguing too
but the overall point of the thread is to analyze Senate races. I think its nice to talk about methodology (ie 'waves') but if the tone of the conversations don't stay civil, they lose value.

Now I'm not saying don't stick up for yourself but if you've presented your side of the arguement, you might have to walk away without getting an apology or any other decent gesture.  

[ Parent ]
But he still maintains a right and reason to respond to illogical and ill-intended posts.
I have a problem with letting go of people who don't stop when I know I'm right.  
[ Parent ]
Jeremiah
I'd liek to disagree with his here.  If you re-read the posts, you'll note I disagreed with his intial idea, based on the fact that I was expecting info based off data, not guesses, which is what he presented.  He's taking his best guess at what he thinks a wave election will do and it jumped MS way to the front, which I questioned.  No problem so far.  

He turns around and explains exactly what he did and how he got there.  Ok,  no issues yet.  Anyone I've ever seen has always based information off current ideas, ie current polls, cash on hand competetiveness et al.  Its what I do, its how the rankings on this site are established and how all of the pundits do it as well.  

Since this site has been hard data heavy, I figured that using hard data was the whole point of this, clearly I'm wrong in that regard, no big deal.  Or it wasn't a big deal until people's intelligence began getting insulted.

I don't mind grammar professor's running around as it happens on lots of blogs and I type fast with 2 fingers, so I tend to get a ton of abuse from such people.  I do not and will not however, tolerate people who accuse others of not understanding the english language.  There was not one point in any part of the conversation that I got nasty or levelled any accusation at Woody aside from questioning his placement of races and the purpose of this whole thing until he blatantly called me stupid.  In hindsight, I should have gotten up and walked away to post at a later time, but I didn't.  I apologize to the posters who had to put up with a continuation of belligerance on my end.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Not being kind of an ass? Lets see.
"Having Mississippi-B as likely Dem, is just rediculous,"    

"There is nothing to support these ideas."

"I'm usually one of the last to criticize someone, but when they make a list like this and call it conservative, the issues simple have to be pointed out."

Funny how you're the last one to criticize someone, yet you're the only one to do it here.  You said his post was ridiculous, had no evidence, and was required to be criticized.  That is what I call kind of being an ass.  So Woody used his "remedial english" thing to kind of be an ass back in his first response.  

[ Parent ]
Alright guys, let's move on.

[ Parent ]
James, more or less, I'm trying to understand something here. I note that ArkDem did the same exact thing I'm being accused of. He called a posters
 more or less,  I'm trying to understand something here.  I note that ArkDem did the same exact thing I'm being accused of to Jward.  He called a posters ideas rediculous at the very top of this comment section.  Then stated that his priorities or citeria was wrong.  I don't see how what I did was any different.  

He then question ChadinFl stating at the end of his comment that he doesn't think his ideas hold water.  

All I want to know is how I did anything differently from then and if I didn't, why I'm being griped at for doing the same thing they did yet, with the exception of one person who criticized both, why established posters are going after me for, yet not going after the person who's engaged in unsults?

The rule set needs to be applied across the board.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Okey dokey
Here goes

1. Open (VA)
2. Open (NM)
3. Stevens (AK)
4. Open (CO)
5. Open (NH)
6. Smith (OR)
7. Wicker (MS)
8. Landrieu (LA)
9. Coleman (MN)
10. Collins (ME)
11. Dole (NC)
12. Open (NE)
13. McConnell (KY)
14. Roberts (KS)
15. Inhofe (OK)
16. Chambliss (GA)
17. Cornyn (TX)
18. Open (ID)
19. Lautenberg (NJ)
20. Johnson (SD)
21. Alexander (TN)
22. Sessions (AL)
23. Durbin (IL)
24. Levin (MI)
25. Barrasso (WY-B)
26. Graham (SC)
27. Harkin (IA)
28. Cochran (MS-A)
29. Enzi (WY-A)
30. Kerry (MA)
31. Rockefeller (WV)
32. Baucus (MT)
33. Biden (DE)
34. Reed (RI)
35. Pryor (AR)

All 35.

I think we will gain 10 seats and not lose a single of our seats.

Dude you're sooo wrong
No WAY is Kerry ranked 30 and behind Rockefeller at 31! Are you crazy! :)

Anyway, here's mine.

As of today I think we'll pick up these first 6 seats.

1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK (just cause I don't know how the primary is going to shake out)
6. OR (I think Merkley is this year's McCaskill or Whitehouse in terms of a wave candidate)

Now I have a 4-way tie for 7th. I think we'll pick up one of these seats, and I would be ecstatic if we picked up more than that. Right now, not looking so good. If this was 2012 then I think Kay Hagan wins just because of demographic changes, but for 2008 it's still going to be a long hard slog.

7. ME
7. MN
7. MS
7. NC

I think the rest of these are are long-shots. No matter how strong Kennedy is in LA, I think there's still enough of an AA vote and a Catholic vote in south LA for Landreau to eke out a win. She's sucked up enough to the oil industry to squeak through. And Obama tentatively supporting the gang of 10 energy proposal may give her some more cover. I just don't see Obama doing worse than Kerry in 2004 with a 27% AA population and Bush already getting 75% of the white vote in 2004. So I think 57% is absolute tops for McCain and it will more likely be 54-55% even with the losses of New Orleans.

11. LA
12. KY
13. NJ

What I really want though is enough votes to pass the employee free choice act. That will change this country to a more progressive one in a dramatic earth-shattering way that I don't think many people realize. Wal-mart realizes it, that's why they're telling their employees to vote against Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly.
The EFCA is the single most important piece of legislation pending in Congress. Right now we have 51 EFCA Senators and 49 Anti-EFCA Senators. Getting to 60 EFCA Senators and electing Obama has to be the single biggest priority for all the unions and is my biggest priority as well.

If we elect those 6 which I think is about a accurate at this pre-Labor Day/DSCC period we get to 57 pro-EFCA senators. We need three more. I think that's totally possible. I'm also pushing hard for candidates like Scott Kleeb beacuse then we might get even more then EFCA and get something like this passed

http://www.inthesetimes.com/ar...

Call it the Workers Rights Act. If that passes unions will once again become a major force in American politics.  

[ Parent ]
About EFCA
What is the composition of the 51 pro-EFCA Senators?  Are those the 49 Dems plus Sanders and Lieberman or are there a few dems and repubs on opposite sides of the issue?  

Also, are all of the Dems who have a shot at winning Senate seats this year pro-EFCA or are some opposed?  

[ Parent ]
IIRC
when this first came up for cloture it failed on a straight party line vote.
[ Parent ]
All Dems included Sanders and Lieberman
And I was wrong. Specter also voted for it but Johnson was still hurt.

So assuming all of those vote for EFCA again we only need 8 pickups. But Specter switched on Medicare and Lieberman is Lieberman so I'd rather we pickup 10 just to be safe ;)

[ Parent ]
I completely agree, especially about EFCA, except...
If Obama wins Minnesota by 6 to 10 points, that should give Franken some wind at his back, and hopefully a leg up on the other "7s"...
[ Parent ]
Rankings
Safe Party switch
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico

Likely Part switch
3) Alaska
4) New Hampshire
5) Colorodo

Toss up
6) Oregon
7) Mississippi-B

Lean party Retention
8) North Carolina
9) Louisiana
10) Minnesota
11) Maine

August cattle call
1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  Alaska
4.  Colorado
5.  New Hampshire
-
6.  Oregon
7.  North Carolina
8.  Minnesota
9.  Mississippi-B
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
-
12. (Louisiana)
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas
15. Kansas
16. Idaho
17. Georgia (if Martin)
18. Nebraska
Rankings
Pick-ups ; in order by margin of victory

1. Mark Warner (VA)
2. Tom Udall (NM)
3. Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
4. Mark Udall (CO)
5. Mark Begich (AK) (margin unclear but def a pick-up opportunity)

Second Tier

For the second tier I think there is two categories.

1) Jeff Merkley (OR) and Tom Allen (ME): Both are in blue states that could benefit from Obama in general election.

2) Kay Hagan (NC) and Ronnie Musgrove (MS): Both are in red states and have a bit of an uphill race.

The Rest

I know a bunch of you have Al Franken (MN) but I really don't think he has a chance.

Larry LaRocco (ID) is definitely worth watching.

Rick Noreiga (TX) is done.

Mary Landrieu (LA) is safe for the moment. I think Kennedy deserves credit for this. The guy is a joke.

Bruce Lunsford (KY) is doing a good job of drawing attention and money into Kentucky even though I don't think there is any way we can win that one.

Conclusion

Five definite pick-ups, four tight races which I'm guessing we have a 50% chance in each and Larry LaRocco running hard. We can get 60 if Joe Leiberman is still in the caucus. I'm not sure we need to hit 60. There are at least two moderate GOPers still around (Snowe, Specter) who we can rely upon to break filibusters. The future looks pretty good.

Snowe, Specter
How often have those two voted with us on cloture?

Actually, I'm curious to see the voting records for all Senators on cloture in the 110th, looking specifically at party unity among the Ds, how often any Rs peel off, and how Lieberman measures up.

If anyone's got a handy-dandy linky at their fingertips, please post...

[ Parent ]
A different President
We might peel off a few Repub Senators once we have a Democratic President. The power to reward -- or punish -- can powerfully influence a Senator like Snowe or Specter.
[ Parent ]
Top 20
1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  Alaska
4.  New Hamphire
5.  Colorado
6.  Oregon
7.  Minnesota
8.  Mississippi B
9.  Louisiana (hope not)
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky
13. Texas
14. Idaho
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Kansas
18. Georgia
19. New Jersey (really hope not)
20. South Carolina

Realistic overall guess: 6 seats flip to Dems
Wish-fulfillment fantasy: 12 seats flip

I'll try
I'm not even sure if I've done one of these before. lol
Pick up
1.  Virginia (duh)
2.  New Mexico (double duh)
3.  New Hampshire
3.  Alaska (two threes since I think Alaska could be more competitive than NH depending on the final settling of the race.)
4.  Colorado

Toss up
5.  Mississippi-B
6.  Oregon
7.  Louisiana

Lean party retention
8.  North Carolina
9.  Minnesota
10. Maine
11. Kentucky

Everything else, pipe dreams unless the Republicans throw us another bone... I'm hoping for another gay one. Maybe Inhofe... hahaha OH... No... Lindsey Graham... lol That would be swell.

The Latest and Greatest Senate Cattle Call...
Tier 0 - Changing of the Guard (Safe, Likely, or Lean Take-over)
01. Virginia: Fmr. Gov. Warner vs. Fmr. Gov. Gilmore (Open)
02. New Mexico: US Rep. Tom Udall vs. US Rep. Pearce (Open)
03. New Hampshire: Fmr. Gov. Shaheen vs. Senator Sununu-Inc.
04. Alaska: Mayor Begich vs. Senator Stevens-Inc.
05. Colorado: US Rep Mark Udall vs. Fmr. US Rep Schaffer (Open)

Tier 1 - Competitive Races (Toss-up Races)
06. Oregon: St. Speaker Merkley vs. Senator Smith-Inc.
07. Mississippi-B: Fmr. Gov. Musgrove vs. Senator Wicker-Inc.

Tier 2 - Advantage to Incumbent Party (Lean Retention)
08. Minnesota: Franken vs. Senator Coleman-Inc.
09. Maine: US Rep Allen vs. Senator Collins-Inc.
10. Louisiana: Senator Landrieu-Inc. vs. St. Treasurer Kennedy
11. North Carolina: St. Senate Hagan vs. Senator Dole-Inc.

Tier 3 -On the Bubble (b/w Potentially Competitive & Safe)
12. Kentucky: Fmr. St. Sec. Lunsford vs. Senator McConnell-Inc.
13. Kansas: Fmr. US Rep Slattery vs. Senator Roberts-Inc.
14. Idaho: Fmr. US Rep LaRocco vs. Lt. Gov. Risch (Open)
15. Oklahoma: St. Senator Rice vs. Senator Inhofe-Inc.

Tier 4 - Safe Seats for Retention
DEM (11): AR, DE, IA, IL, MA, MI, MT, NJ, RI, SD, & WV
GOP (9): AL, GA, MS, NE, SC, TN, TX, WY, WY-B

I could have rearranged Tier 2 between the #8 and #11 spot all damn afternoon, but I decided to finally post this.

I'm thinking we have the Tier 0 races to put us up +5 making it 56-44; if we can win the two toss-ups in Tier 1 which I am hopeful we can do, that's 58-42. From there, if we are lucky to pull in a Tier 2 race w/o losing Louisiana, we'll be closer to 60 as every (and ridding the caucus of Lieberman).

KELL

My Ranking
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. North Carolina
9. Kentucky
10. Idaho

Off the map? Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska

(I left Louisiana off the map because I'm describing seats that will change hands mostly from R to D)

Curious about ME & MN?
Had you not listed a "Off the Map?" section, I would have assumed Maine and Minnesota just wasn't in your top 10. However, you list your Top 10 and then show those four others that are off the map. Where does Maine and Minnesota fit in this? Are they Off the Map as well, or just not Top 10 and not winnable?

KELL
[ Parent ]
Thanks For The Reminder
I totally forgot about those two! My brain must be off today. Maybe I'll try again:

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. Minnesota
9. Maine
10.North Carolina

Races to watch: Kentucky, Idaho, Louisiana

Off the map: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas,  

[ Parent ]
You do realize
that Idaho isn't even on the DSCC's races to watch?  
[ Parent ]
There May Be Some Hope In Idaho
The latest polls shows Risch taking an abysmal 42% to LaRocco's 32%. Unlike in 2002 when Larry Craig was reelected, there are three right leaning candidates, two independents plus one libertarian, to siphon votes away from Risch.

In the end Risch may end up winning, but it's worth to keep an eye on this one. After all, there's no runoff requirement as I understand it in Idaho elections, so you just need a plurality to win.

[ Parent ]
You nailed it, Bro
With the three independents in the race and a fractured Idaho GOP, LaRocco is in a very good position.

Even though the DSCC hasn't committed yet, I don't think it would take very much in the way of funds. a few hundred grand might be enough.

[ Parent ]
It's not about "yet"
The DSCC has 5 races on it's Races to Watch list. Nebraska, Kansas, Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma. If it invests in any races not in the top 11 it's going to be one of those. Most likely Kansas or Nebraska.

Idaho is not going to get a cent from the DSCC. If LaRocco is going to win he's going to have to do it by himself.

[ Parent ]
Still time, still money
Events keep breaking our way, and good news cascades down. If Stevens wins his primary and loses his trial, both good bets I'd say, how much money will the DSCC need to spend in Alaska? How close to "none" can they get? So any money promised to Begich will get reallocated toward the needier cases further down the list. Meanwhile Merkley is looking stronger and stronger, and even Allen is finally showing progress. It could be they will not need all of their allocation in the end. And of course, it's possible that the DSCC will raise more funds than they have budgeted.

Anyway, I'm not sure LaRocco needs more help than he's been getting from a higher power -- or dumb luck. Remember he announced against a fairly popular incumbent, who later was moved to assure us, "I'm not gay," but then chose not to run for re-election for reasons related to the fact that he's not gay, or not, or something. Follow up on that, his anointed Repub opponent Jim Risch has pissed off some rich Repub sumumbeech who has declared that he doesn't care if his candidacy causes the Democrat to win. The DSCC couldn't buy such breaks if it allocated its entire budget to Idaho alone.

And this against a background of a Democratic wave year, with Obama polling far ahead of Kerry's dismal showing in Idaho.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Still LaRocco and perhaps Martin have polled the closest to their opponents in those races. If Martin wins the primary I could see them looking there.
[ Parent ]
Georgia is a expensive media market
And Saxy has a TON of money.

There is a lot more to Senate races then polls in August.  

[ Parent ]
Yep, Martin going to keep Saxby busy and that's it.
Georgia is definitely not a top tier race even though it could be if Saxby had a Macaca Moment. Georgia is an expensive market but I don't think Idaho is nearly as expensive. All the DSCC needs to do is drop a few grand into Idaho before November. They have all the ammo they need in Larry Craig and it would be a shame not to remind Idahoans of his escapades.

Just to get a little clarification, I'm going to call LaRocco's office tomorrow and see if the DSCC is involved in any way. I'm hoping they are.

[ Parent ]
My cattle call.
Republican Held Seats:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Alaska
5. New Hampshire
---------------
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
----------------
10. Maine
----------------
11. Kentucky
----------------
12. Kansas
13. Idaho
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska

Democratic Held Seats:
1. Louisiana

1-5 = Likely / Lean Democratic pickup
6-9 = Toss Up
10 = Lean Republican Retention
11 = Likely Republican Retention
12-15 = Races to Watch

-----------------
1 = Lean Democratic retention.  

My rankings...
are here in much greater detail.

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi-B
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
10. Maine
11. Louisiana
12. Texas
13. Kentucky

Ranking...
Wins

1.) Virginia
2.) New Mexico
3.) New Hampshire
4.) Colorado
5.) Alaska - Could move up depending on what Stevens does. I don't think there is a GOPer in Alaska who can win here who hasn't already stated they are not interested in running

Leans Takeover

6.) Oregon

Toss-up

7.) Mississippi-B
8.) Minnesota

Lean Retention

9.) Maine
10.) North Carolina

Likely Retention

11.) Kentucky
12.) Georgia (could change with the right Democrat on the ticket)
13.) Idaho

Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, and others might become competitive with a gaffe or two from the Incumbent.

The same goes for Louisiana, however, the GOP do not have the resources to fight there, and I think they have written off the race.

I figure the Democrats have a less than 10% chance of winning the 10 seats they would need to had a filibuster-proof majority. However, the GOP have an even smaller chance of picking up the one seat they would need to regain control of the house. (I figure Lieberman is gone from the Democrats.)  

rankings
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (without a viable GOP candidate)
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi-B
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Georgia (with Martin)
14. Idaho
15. Kansas
16. Texas
17. Oklahoma
July/August choices
easy D pickups: +3

New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire  all 55%+

Lean D pickup: +4

Oregon, Colorado, Maine, Alaska
Louisiana (hold)

Tossup: +0.5

Minnesota

Lean R: -0

North Carolina
Mississippi-B

Overall change: +7.5 D

Rankings and predictions
Takeovers:

1. Virginia
Former Gov. Mark Warner wins this open Republican seat by a landslide.

2. New Mexico
Rep. Tom Udall wins this open Republican seat by a landslide.

3. Colorado
Rep. Mark Udall wins this open Republican seat by a comfortable margin

4. New Hampshire
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen defeats incumbent freshman Sen. John Sununu by a comfortable margin.

5. Alaska
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich will likely pick up this Republican held seat by either defeating indicted incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens, or defeating a replacement candidate if Stevens wins the primary and bows out. The only reason this isn't higher on the line has to do with Alaska's solid Republican past.

6. Oregon
State House Speaker Jeff Merkley probably beats two term incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith by 2-3 points and picks up this Republican seat.

Toss-Ups

7. Mississippi-B (Special Election)
In a pure toss-up, appointed Republican Sen. Roger Wicker faces former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. This will go either way with the eventual winner claiming victory by 1-2 percentage points.

8. North Carolina
Freshmen incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole faces Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan in what will likely be a tight contest. Given Hagan's displayed fundraising prowess (well over $1 million in the second quarter), Dole's anemic poll numbers and the DSCC's intention to invest in this race, I see this shaping up as a squeaker with the winner claiming victory by 1-2 points.

Lean Retention

9. Minnesota
Freshmen incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman probably narrowly survives a challenge from Democratic satirist Al Franken.

10 (tie). Maine/Louisiana
Two incumbents, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, will likely survive tough challenges in Louisiana and Maine, respectively.

11. Kentucky
Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell likely fights off a strong challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford.  

Cattle Call
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska- Stevens likely survives primary, then convicted in Oct or so.  Begich wins landslide.
4. Colorado- Udall win by 5-10
5. New Hampshire- Not as easy of a win as many predicted, but we will win this one by 4-8
6. Oregon- Merkley by 4-8
7. Minnesota- Franken will come back in the last months and win this one by 2-5
8. Maine- Moneynuke leads to narrow Allen win, 50.5-49.5 or so.
9. North Carolina- this one will be close, with either
Dole or Hagan winning narrowly.
10. Mississippi B- Only possible in a big Obama landslide, don't expect us to win here.  Wicker by 2-5
11. Louisiana- Landrieu still popular, likely to win by 2-5
12. Kentucky- Only if Lunsford spends big, McConnell stumbles, not a likely win for us.
13. Georgia- only if Martin wins, even then, not very likely.

16, Male, MI-01
my rankings--three months to go
In order likelihood of flipping:

1.  New Mexico
2.  Virginia
3.  Alaska (if Stevens stays in--hope he's not acquitted)
4.  New Hampshire
5.  Colorado
6.  Louisiana
7.  Oregon
8.  North Carolina
9.  Mississippi-B  
10.  Minnesota

I think McCain will win the presidential election, but I'm hoping his coattails will quite small.

Predicted gain: 4-5 seats.

I know this is a Congressional race site but...
I have to ask, why do you think McCain will win?  I am like 99% confident Obama will win it in a cake walk so I want to see what your reasoning is.
[ Parent ]
Uh...
I'm not entirely sure why you would think that McCain is going to win this year, unless you buy into that Bradley Effect bs...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
McCain
I just don't see it happening.  Obama is just like Kerry and Dukakis--he can't handle the Republican attack machine.
[ Parent ]
Obama vs. McCain
Dukakis was running to succeed the wildly popular Reagan, against the outgoing president's V.P. in a year that produced only a +1 Democrat gain in the senate, and Dukakis was somewhat a Doofus and a bad candidate (see Dukakis in the tank).  Kerry was also a rather bad candidate running against the still popular incumbent president in a year that produced a big Democrat loss in the senate.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Plus, Obama's not from Massachusetts
That alone has got to be worth something in this analogy.
[ Parent ]
No Way...
is Obama of the ilk of Kerry/Dukakis.  Obama has the balls and money to defend himself in every way the other 2 didn't.  The second McCain releases a sophmoric attack ad, 29 seconds later Obama releases a 30 second ad defending himself with the grace and dignity no one has shown before him.  The American public learned how stupid it can be in 2004 with Swift Boats/Gay Marriage.  It proved in 2006 and I believe yet again will in 08, that we won't get duped again.  I say Obama bitch-slaps McCain into retirement with 300+ EV's.
[ Parent ]
Warning Warning
Concern troll on the loose!
[ Parent ]
here, here!
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado
6. Oregon
7. Louisiana
8. Mississippi-B
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Texas
13. Kentucky
14. New Jersey
15. Idaho
16. Kansas
17. Georgia
18. Oklahoma
19. South Dakota
20. Nebraska

Campaign Diaries

My rankings
DEM SEATS

Likely Dem:

1) New Mexico (T. Udall/Pearce)
2) Virginia (Warner/Gilmore)

Lean Dem:

3) Colorado (M. Udall/Schaffer)
4) New Hampshire (Shaheen/Sununu)
5) Alaska (Begich/Stevens)

Tossup:

6) Oregon (Merkley-Smith)
7) Mississippi-B (Musgrove-Wicker)

Lean GOP:

8) Minnesota (Coleman/Franken/Barkley)
9) North Carolina (Dole/Hagan)
10) Maine (Collins/Allen)
11) Kansas (Roberts/Slattery)
12) Idaho (Risch/LaRocco/Rammell)

Likely GOP:

13) Kentucky (McConnell/Lunsford)
14) Oklahoma (Inhofe/Rice)
15) South Carolina (Chambliss/Martin)
16) Texas (Cornyn/Noriega)

Safe GOP: all the rest

Races to watch: Wyoming-B (Barrasso/Carter)

DEM SEATS:

Lean Dem:

1) Louisiana (Landrieu/Kennedy)

Likely Dem:

2) New Jersey (Lautenberg/Zimmer)

Safe Dem: all the rest

Races to watch: none

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Top 15
1) Virginia- W - Warner 64/Gilmore 32
2) New Mexico- W - Udall 59/Pearce 40
3) Alaska- W - Begich 54/ Stevens 43
4) Colorado- W - Udall 55.5/Schaffer 44.5
5) New Hampshire- W - Shaheen 52/Sununu 48
6) Oregon- W - Merkely 51.5/Smith 48.5
7) North Carolina- W - Hagan 50.2/Dole 49.8
8) Louisiana- W - Landrieu 52/Kennedy 46
9) Mississippi- L - Wicker 52/ Musgrove 48
10) Maine- L - Collins 55/ Allen 45
11) Minnesota- L - Coleman 55/Franken 45
12) Kentucky- L - McConnell 56/Lunsford 43
13) Idaho- L - Risch 51/LaRocco 39/Rammell 10
14) Georgia w/ Martin primary win- L - Chambliss 58/ Martin 41
15) Kansas- L - Roberts 59/ Slattery 41

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
Cattle Call
Safe Dem (Turn out the lights, the party's over)

1. Virginia (Warner vs. Gilmore)
2. New Mexico (T. Udall vs. Pearce)

Likely Dem (Live boy, dead girl)

3. Colorado (M. Udall vs. Schaffer)
4. Alaska (Begich vs. Stevens)

Leans Dem

5. New Hampshire (Shaheen vs. Sununu)

Tossups

6. Oregon (G. Smith vs. Merkley)
7. Mississippi-B (Musgrove vs. Wicker)

Leans Incumbent Retention

8. Minnesota (Franken vs. Coleman
Louisiana (Landrieu vs. J.N. Kennedy)
9. Maine (Allen vs. Collins)
10. North Carolina (Hagan vs. Dole)
11. Kentucky (Lunsford vs. McConnell)

Likely Repub

12. Texas (Noriega vs. Cornyn)
13. Oklahoma (Rice vs. Inhofe)
14. Kansas (Slattery vs. Roberts)
15. Idaho (LaRocco vs. Risch)

Safe for the Incumbent Party

Dem: IA (Harkin), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), SD (T. Johnson), DE (Biden), IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), AR (Pryor), RI (Reed), WV (Rockefeller), NJ (Lautenberg)

Repub: TN (L. Alexander v. Tuke), SC (L. Graham v. Conley), GA (Chambliss v. V. Jones...if Martin wins the Dem primary this race moves up), WY-A (Enzi v. Rothfuss), WY-B (Barrasso v. Carter), AL (Sessions v. Figures), MS (Cochran v. Fleming), NE (Johanns v. Kleeb)


fdsa
I pose this as kind of a cocktail party sort of question:  Each cycle, it seems, one challenge we "should" win fails to fall, and one longshot opportunity does fall.  In 2006, we failed to take the "closer" race in Tennessee, but with the help of unscripted events, Jim Webb defeated George Allen in Virginia.

So, what falls under these categories this year?

The "safe" bets right now (and I'm looking for people willing to go out on a limb... remember the state of affairs in Aug 2006?) are probably Franken or maybe Merkley for category A, and, if you asked me and you didn't,  pie^H^H^H Lundsford or Hagen (IMO) for category B.

What say you?

Lunsford
He fired his media consultants, not a good sign.
It's going to be difficult to accomplish much in the Senate
with Mitch McConnell still Minority Leader.
[ Parent ]
It'll be difficult
no matter who the republican leader is. The next in line is Jon Kyl. Total a-hole.

We need 60 votes.  

[ Parent ]
further out on a limb
One could even suggest LaRocca, Kleeb, or Rice as a potential out-of-nowhere winner, given the right turn of events. Like Webb, and unlike Lunsford, each is a netroots/grassroots favorite.
[ Parent ]
Ronny Musgrove is this cycle's Harold Ford.
  Though I find Ronny Musgrove way less irritating than Harold Ford.  Webb beating Allen was an enormous upset.  I think this year's upset will be Andrew Rice defeating James Inhofe.  Oklahoma will be represented by a good Democrat in DC for 6 years.  Imagine!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Not According To Recent Polls
Last poll done for the Oklahoma Senate race showed Rice trailing Inhofe by 22 points, while the last legit poll done for Mississippi showed Musgrove trailing by 1 point. I think MS would be a safer bet to switch, but Oklahoma would definitely be a pleasant surprise.
[ Parent ]
"Recent" Polls
  The last MS poll had Musgrove trailing by five.  The Rice-Inhofe race hasn't been polled since the ad blitzes.  Musgrove has already peaked.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
All recent polls list Musgrove as a Democrat and Wicker as a Republican
The ballot will not do that for either candidate.  It is a special election, and rules for special elections are that candidates don't have party labels next to their names.  
[ Parent ]
And Musgrove will be listed before Wicker
Since it's a special election names are alphabetical so Musgrove will be listed first.  It may seem like a minor detail but studies have shown that the person listed first does result in more votes for that candidate.
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma Polling
The Oklahoma poll with Inhofe up by 22 was released back on June 10, before Rice went up on television. It's been nearly two months since that poll, and I'd like to see if there's been any movement.

This race was always a long shot, but Inhofe's reelect numbers are poor, creating the opportunity for an opening if Rice can get his name out and start getting some traction. It's hard to tell how much of a long shot this race is without more information, which is why I think it's a sleeper race which could become competitive.

Or at least I hope so.

[ Parent ]
That's the only race Rasmussen isn't polling
Well Oklanhoma and Idaho as well seem to be the only big Senate races that Rasmussen isn't polling each month.  I really wish they would start.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I mean...
If Rasmussen feels compelled to poll Alabama (as they occasionally do), why not Oklahoma or Idaho?
[ Parent ]
Yeah
He has also polled Michigan (Levin) and Massachusetts (Kerry) several times.  
[ Parent ]
Well I think Rasmussen needs a sponsor
Though I cannot imagine why they are getting a sponsor to poll races like MI and SD which are guaranteed landslides and not races that should be close like OK and ID.
[ Parent ]
I can't really
Explain MA, but with MI its going to be one of the most hotly contested Presidential races and since their already polling that race they might as well poll the Senate race. But Oklahom and Idaho aren't expected to be competitive at all.
[ Parent ]
8-10 pick-up
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota (just saw a great attack ad while typing this)
8. North Carolina
9. Maine
10. Mississippi-B
11. Kentucky
12. Georgia
13. Idaho
14. Kansas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Texas

I dont see much happening after 12, possibly 13 depending on how much third party candidates show to be taking in vote percentage, more polls will help.

I see Oklahoma possibly moving up, Nebraska is not going to happen, Kansas is showing the wrong trend and won't change, Texas Noriega has no money but couldve done it.

I'm also extremely pessimistic about Mississippi-B compared to most.  I just cant get that excited over a state-wide race in Mississippi, I think it'll just end in a dissapointment.  But I'm hopeful nonetheless, it certainly could happen.

We are keeping Lousiana, I see this list more as where how far deep into their terroritory can we win.

Mind telling us about the MN-Sen attack ad?
I'm curious.
[ Parent ]
very basic
Coleman has voted with Bush 90% of the time on all of these issues we care about and that he isnt upholding Minnesota values but rather Bush values.

Im not finding it on youtube.  It wasnt anything special so you're not missing anything.

[ Parent ]
found it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

i lied about it talking about minnesota values vs bush values, but that sounds good and they should use that!  :)  although i hate talking about "values" in politics, such a loaded word.

[ Parent ]
It's a good ad
We should clone it and run it in a dozen states. Save production costs for small budget campaigns like Kansas.
[ Parent ]
Here's mine
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska (still looks good for us against who ever the Republican will be)
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
6. Oregon (I think Smith is helping us, the more he turns to Obama the less Republicans will vote for him, as they crucial for him to win)
7. Mississippi - B
8. Louisiana
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Idaho
14. Nebraska

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
Rank 'Em
1. Virginia (Solid D)
2. New Mexico (Solid D)
3. Alaska (Solid D)
4. New Hampshire (D Favored)
5. Colorado (Leans D)
6. Mississippi-B (Tossup)
7. Oregon (Tossup)
8. Minnesota (Tossup)
9. North Carolina (Leans R)
10. Maine (Leans R)
11. Louisiana (Leans D)
12. Texas (R Favored)
13. Kentucky (R Favored)

Watch List
14. Idaho
15/16. Georgia (if Martin wins)/Kansas (if not)
17. New Jersey
18. Oklahoma

I don't think we can do Nebraska, which really depresses me.

Why not?
We have a better chance there then in any of your Watch List and a far better chance then we have it Texas. Kleeb has outraised Mike Johanns since he got in the race and is closer in CoH then any of those races. It's also a open seat which makes it easier.

[ Parent ]
I'm not 100%...
writing off Nebraska.  It just seems to be one of the races where we have good candidates, but every poll matchup between Johanns and Kleeb we've gained little to no momentum whatsoever.  Kansas may have to be thrown in there too if nothing more develops.

As for Texas, I feel like it's going to fall into that perennial statewide Texas race, where it's 52-55 (R) to 43-46 (D).  We'll see.  I personally know quite a few Republicans here in Texas who are die-hard voting for McCain, but aren't sure if they're voting Cornyn.  But if I was a candidate, I'd rather be an underfunded unknown polling 10 points behind in a red state than in a position such as Tom Allen (well-funded, well-known polling 7 points behind in a blue state).  We know a solution to Texas: money (it's the getting it that's the problem).  What's the solution to Nebraska?

[ Parent ]
I'm 99% writing off NE
I guess I am getting to the point where I am now separating the men/women from the boys/girls. Granted I guess I wouldn't put KY, KS, OK, & ID in the "Safe" column, althought I am pretty damn close to doing so (I currently do put NE "Safe"). These races are not really competitive at this point, I'd consider them bubble races (akin to the NCAA tournament "bubble" teams attempting to make it to the big dance). For Democratic seats, I put NJ in this category, I really don't see Lautenberg losing at all.

As now of now ther are those races which we will win or should win: VA, NM, AK, NH, & CO. There are races which are toss-ups for which we can win: OR & MS-B. And there are races that are competitive where Democrats need to step up to beat the GOP candidate: MN, ME, & NC. I also think Louisiana sits here for Democrats. In my mind, our floor is +4 and our ceiling is +10. Can floors and ceilings be broken? Sure, but I doubt it will happen.  

KELL

[ Parent ]
Well
how do you expect the poll numbers to change?

No one was on TV, no one was doing mailers. It's all been just building field work. That doesn't result in big swings in the polls.

Kleeb is now going up on TV. Both candidates have money. You can't really judge a race before anyone has spent their money though. Clinton was ahead by more then Johanns. That didn't end up that way once everything had settled.

The fundamentals of the Nebraska race (Open seat, sitting Democratic Senator, strong fundraising, good candidate) are much stronger then the fundamentals of any of the other races. Most people don't pay attention to Senate elections at this point. Post-Labor Day they start paying attention, once the airwaves start to be covered by ads things get closer (or wider) and the debates and other late campaign moments also make a difference.

But your not going to see poll swings magically.

We've got 8 million dollars less money in Texas in a super expensive media market. If he's lucky Noriega will be able to buy TV ads for the last week of the campaign. He will get CRUSHED by Cornyn unfortunately.

Tom Allen is going to win once the airwars start. Kleeb's going to get close once the airwars start. If his campaign has enough to match Johanns (less then a million behind currently) then they will be able to get it into single digits and the DSCC will be able to drive down Johanns's positives enough to put Kleeb over the top.

Senate polls right now in places where real campaigning (tv ads) have not started mean nothing.

[ Parent ]
A couple of things to bear in mind...
is that Cornyn will not crush Noriega.  It will probably be a 5-10 point win for Cornyn but I highly doubt Cornyn will crush him.  Hutchinson crushed Radnofsky in 2006 (62-36; at this point in the race, polls had it at about that result) but that's because Kay Bailey might possibly be the most popular politician in the state of Texas and she's one of the maybe 4-5 rational Republicans in the senate.

Another thing, an underfunded Chris Bell lost by 9 (39-30) in the '06 governor's race with 2 other opposition candidates on the ballot.  The entire Dallas County federal system flipped from practically every seat Republican to practically every seat blue based upon sheer disdain with the Republican brand (that same thing will happen in Harris County in '08).  The 90's-00's era of Texas republican in dying, do I see that changing in '08?  Not really, but it'll be damn close.

At this point of the very close 06 race of Allen/Webb, Webb was very underfunded and trailing by 16 and Allen was polling under 50.  This is pre-macaca.  While Webb eked one out, still 9000 votes is 9000 votes.  Is Cornyn capable of a huge gaffe?  Yes (he's alredy had a couple of minor ones so far).  Is Johanns?  Maybe, but not as much.  But I do still remain very hopeful for Nebraska.  I've donated to Scott Kleeb and will support him to the ends of the world, but it's one of the races where I'm least optimistic.

[ Parent ]
I'm not basing my faith...
on any of these race outcomes on a gaffe either.  That wasn't a very well thought out statement by me.  It just seems like the only drum we've been beating on Johanns (that I've heard like 20 times) is that he can't finish a job he starts.  Not as much ammo to throw that direction as the extremely slimy John Cornyn.
[ Parent ]
Macaca moment, no, maybe, maybe yes?
The odds that any one of these races will explode in some unexpected way is very small. But there is always a chance. When the number of potentially competitive races rises, then the odds that one of them will have a macaca moment, race-changing-type gaffe also rises. The chances get better when an incumbent starts to feel some pressure, and when the press is following him around because there is a competitive challenge.

Remember that was one of the points made for why we Democrats should contest every race: You just never know.

Always the threat of a dead girl or a live boy; David Vitter was so lucky that his girl business came out when he was not up for re-election. Well, lessee. A Staten Island Repub is busted D.W.I. and a woman not his wife bails him out, and then, Who was that woman? An unknown Barack Obama was running for Senator against a rich Repub, but dirt from the rich guy's divorce spilled out, stuff about taking his (ex)wife to sex clubs for exhibitionist adventures -- that led to Alan Keyes getting the Repub nomination instead, and downhill from there. In PA in '06, one Repub Congresscritter had his home and office raided by the FBI. (Well, that maybe happened in more states than just PA!) Another incumbent was arrested for tap dancing in an airport mens' room. Sometimes a candidate is ahead in a race but dies in a plane crash or something, clearing the way for the other guy to win, Paul Wellstone R.I.P.

This round, the DSCC has 11 targeted races and 4 or 5 more "Races to Watch." If we're ready in 16 or 17 or 18 races, expect the unexpected. Probably not with Cornyn, no, but maybe with one of the group that includes him. Of course, as with Wellstone, the bad news could always be our own. ;-(     But power corrupts, so the Repubs now are more prone to race-changing disclosures and events. This year I expect the unexpected, somewhere, and I look forward to it.

[ Parent ]
Same thing with Jim Bunning in 2004
He only survived by the skin of his teeth and Mongiardo was nowhere that summer.
[ Parent ]
Texas, Our Texas
I'm not quite giving up on Noriega, not yet. To be blunt, his base is gonna be the black and brown vote. We can figure the black vote will turn out for Obama and vote solidly Democratic without regard to any TV ads or other costly effort. The Hispanic vote will have a similar motivation to turn out for Noriega and vote solidly Democratic. Both these groups tend to bloc vote with peer pressure driving turnout in their communities. And Spanish language media, especially radio, is relatively cheap.

But black and brown will not yet win it in Texas. Noriega will need lots of white votes too. How much will it cost to persuade whites to vote for him and motivate them to the polls?

In Noriega's hometown of Houston we have three vigorous Democratic battles for House seats, two now for the State Senate, several for the Lege, and for many local offices throughout the county. These campaigns will be pulling white Democrats to the polls in the state's largest county.

Of course, Texas is not one of the battleground states where Obama is on air and saturating the place with field staff. But his volunteer organization looked formidable back in March. If it delivers again in November, Noriega just might win the damn thing without spending the $10 or $20 million on TV that is usually considered the requirement. It is, after all, gonna be a wave year election, a change election, even in Texas.

[ Parent ]
Here goes.
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Maine
8. Minnesota
9. North Carolina
10. Louisiana
11. Mississippi
12. Kentucky
13. Oklahoma
14. Texas
15. Georgia
16. Idaho

  Alaska moves up because residents of that state are undoubtedly feeling like a-holes for naming every structure after Ted Stevens.  Begich is simply a great candidate, he'll beat all comers.  The DSCC seems to be committed to Kay Hagan, which is good.  Kentucky and Mississippi fall for general suckiness of our candidates.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again: why are we bullish on a candidate who lost his last statewide election as an incumbent (Musgrove)?  I'm not buying it.  In other news, Lunsford is rich and useless.  I admit to being biased in these two races: I hardly give a crap if either wins.  I yawned when Harold Ford lost in 2006.
   Having made the promise to make the Louisiana senate race a "bloodbath," the NRSC is doing conspicuously little now.  It's getting late, and Kennedy's campaign is still underwhelming.  13-16 are longshots, with super-shitty Republican candidates to make it easier on the challengers.  I love Andrew Rice.

24, Male, GA-05

Over-Optimism?
I see numerous posters having the Dems picking up 9 or more Senate seats. While I'd love that result, I just don't see it happening.

Sure pickup: VA
Almost sure pickups: MN, NH
Fairly likely pickups: AK, CO
Toss-up: OR, MS(B)
Competitive but odds against: MN, NC, ME
I'm not holding my breath: KT
Too bad it isn't closer: TX

I'd put LA as a fairly likely hold.

Race to watch: OK. Inhofe is just way out there, not a good place to be this year. Rice is a good candidate; we'll see if the numbers start to move now that he's up on TV and getting his name out.

I'm just not bullish on the MN, NC, and ME. The last one is the puzzler for me. Allen seems like a good candidate, and Collins's supposed "moderation" is useless when she looks at McConnell every time her vote really counts. Still, in Maine they say it's the person, not the party, so unless Allen can change that outlook, it's going to be a tough seat to flip. (Still, I've sent him some bucks.)

So I'd be pretty sure of picking up at least five seats, maybe up to 8. But I think 9 is going to be tough. Then again, I wouldn't have predicted 51 (including Lieberman) last time around; the Dems got every competitive race except KT to break their way. Perhaps it will happen again, but I just don't see it right now.

I think you transposed New Mexico
"Almost sure pickups: MN, NH"

should read: Almost sure pickups: NM, NH"

Although I'd love if Minnesota was an almost sure pickup!

KELL

[ Parent ]
You're Right
I try to check and occasionally catch that mistake, which I sometimes make. I missed it this time, but you didn't! Thanks.
[ Parent ]
In order of most likely to flip today...
followed by my prediction:

1.) Virginia.. 64-36, pickup
2.) New Mexico.. 61-39, pickup
3.) New Hampshire..55-45, pickup
4.) Colorado..54-46, pickup
5.) *Alaska..60-40, pickup
(big dropoff)
6.) Oregon..51-49, pickup
7.) Louisiana..52-48, hold
8.) Minnesota..54-46, (R) hold
9.) Mississippi..52-48, (R) hold
10.) North Carolina, 50.5-49.5, pickup
11.) Maine..54-46,(R) hold
12.) Kentucky..55-45, (R) hold..but we get Bunning in 2010
13.)Texas..59-41,(R) hold
14.) Oklahoma..58-42, (R) hold

*My Alaska prediction assumes that Stevens is the nominee, which, at this point, seems like the most likely scenario. I would have ranked it ahead of NH and CO but there's too much uncertainty surrounding that race right now.

I honestly think we'll do even better than we did in 06. Either Kay Hagan or Ronnie Musgrove will be the seventh pickup. I went with Hagan for a variety of reasons:
1.) NC is simply a more Democratic friendly state
2.) Beyond African Americans, MS does not have a reliable base of Democratic voters that unconditionally support Democrats. In NC, the Research Triangle and the state's many college towns provide for a base of liberal Whites that Mississippi does not have.
3.) Even though Obama will undoubtedly drive up AA turnout in MS, I don't think Musgrove can get enough White McCain voters to split their ticket.

You're probably wondering why I didn't include New Jersey in spite of the surprisingly close polling Rasmussen and other organizations have released. I used to live in New Jersey and New Jersey voters claim to hate their politicians yet the machine in both parties hasn't slowed down in securing an incumbent's re-election. The fact that Bob Menendez, a poster child of everything Jersey voters claim to hate in their politicians, beat Tom Kean Jr, the son of a wildly popular former governor, tells me that Democrats are becoming invincible at the state level in New Jersey.  

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat

Here goes...
my first post!

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi (B)
8. Minnesota
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Georgia
13. Texas
14. Kentucky
15. Idaho
16. Oklahoma
17. Kansas

Total Dem pickup of 7-9 seats.

Here it Goes
Definite Dem Pickup:
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico

Very Likely Dem Pickup
3. New Hampshire
4. Alaska
5. Colorado

Lean Dem Pickup
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota

Tossup
8. Mississippi B
9. North Carolina
10. Maine
11. Louisiana

Lean Republican Hold
12. Texas
13. Kentucky
14. Georgia (if Martin wins the primary)

Very Likely Republican Hold
15. Kansas
16. Idaho (but to be fair, LaRocco will come closer than any other candidate since Frank Church)
17. Oklahoma

Definite Republican Hold
18. Nebraska
19. Alabama
20/21. Wyoming A+B
22. Mississippi A
23. Tennessee
24. South Carolina

senate
YOU GOT IT RIGHT..A BIG "O" WIN BRINGS ALONG NC AND MS
[ Parent ]
PLEASE TAKE OFF
CAPS LOCK!
[ Parent ]
senate flips
1.VIRGINIA +15
2.NEW MEXICO +15
3.ALASKA +12
4.NEW HAMPSHIRE +8
5.COLORADO +6
6.OREGON +4
7.MISSISSIPPI +2
7.NC   +2
7.MN   +2

IF IT AIN'T THERE, IT AIN'T FLIPPIN' (KY,ME,TX,ID,ETC,)

Summary:
Everyone agrees on 1-5 (VA, CO, NH, AK, and NM): definite flip.

Most everyone agrees that #6 is OR and #7 is MS.  

BUT...the question is where does political climate put the "wave"?  After the first 5? After 6?  After 7?  Or does it go to the next round of MN (?) And maybe ME (9)?  I stop there.  No NC or KY or TX for me.

I'm new here...
So don't be too hard on me. Here's what I'm thinking about likely flips (ranked in order of most to least likely to change hands):

Tier I

1. Virginia- Obviously, Mark Warner is running so strongly this has become a near safe bet. I think he can easily win this by double digits.

2. New Mexico- I'm so thrilled about Tom Udall... And I'm not even in the state! He's a good progressive Democrat that seems to have the gift of easily being able to win swing voters. And of course, it helps that the GOP here is running like a chicken with its head cut off. I think this is another race where we can very well get a double-digit victory, especially if Barack Obama shines at the top of the ticket.

3. New Hampshire- Democrats are simply rocking the casbah in this state. In 2006, Gov. Lynch won by the highest margin ever while Dems flipped BOTH House seats and BOTH houses of the state legislature. And already this year, Barack Obama is maintaining a nice lead while Shaheen consistently outpolls Sununu in the Senate race. Like NM, I think Shaheen will get a decent margin of victory if Obama wins here.

4. Alaska- Now that Ted Stevens is indicted, this may be the final piece of the puzzle for Mark Begich to score a win.

5. Oregon- If Merkley can continue shattering the "Gordon Smith=Moderate" myth & if Obama can develop coattails here, we can win.

Tier II

6. Minnesota- Despite Franken's recent woes, he's still within striking distance of Coleman. Maybe the GOP Convention next month will make Coleman look scary conservative again.

7. North Carolina- Dole seems to be surviving, but perhaps an "Obama surge" here can give Hagan another shot.

8. Mississippi- This us such a red state, but Musgrove is such a good candidate. It's a miracle MS is even on the map.

9. Louisiana (D hold)- We're not out of the woods yet, but Landrieu looks to be in a good position to squeak out another win.

10. Maine- Collins is still looking strong (sigh), but I wouldn't count Allen out
just yet.

Tier III

11. Kentucky
12. Texas
13. Georgia
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska


Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Most of us are gentle (some not so much)...
Good list, and it's encouraging more and more people are starting to feel as though Oregon is in that top tier along with the other five that most associate as the best races for Democrats.

Which brings me to my comment, if you look at those five most often associated now in the top tier, you are only showing four of them (VA, NM, NH, AK), leaving Colorado in pergatory not being anywhere on your list.

Where art thou Colorado?

KELL

[ Parent ]
Whoops!
My mistake... Thanks for catching it! I certainly think Mark Udall is doing a terrific job out there. And while Schaffer has shown signs if life in recent polls, I have a good feeling Mark can knock him out of the park once he & Obama shine in Denver later this month. So now including CO, my new rankings look like:

Tier 1 ( likely to flip)

1. VA
2. NM
3. NH
4. CO
5. AK

Tier 1.5 (50/50 chance of flipping)

6. OR

Tier 2 (still competitive races, one or two here may flip)

7. MN
8. NC
9. MS
10. LA
11. ME

Tier 3 (likely holds for now, but may become competitive some
time soon )

12. KY
13. TX
14. GA
15. OK
16. NE
17. ID (also left out upthread)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
wow
you've way outclassed me in knowledge of the local races ... I guess I need to catch up!

-Dizzy

Proudly cross-posting everything to Clintonistas for Obama and ComputerQueen.Net!!

[ Parent ]
Mine
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. Colorado
5. New Hampshire
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi (B)
8. Minnesota
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky  
13. Oklahoma
14. Kansas
Rice is up with a new Ad
even better than his first one, which was very good.

http://www.andrewforoklahoma.c...

[ Parent ]
i've been waiting long enough
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska

Alaska could be the Torricelli of this year - still need to see who crawls out of the wreckage before i rank it above the others.

Tier 2: (tossup)
6. Oregon - Merkely looks like the Sheldon Whitehouse of '08:)
7.  Mississippi-B (no party ID and the fact that the DSCC and Musgrove haven't started spending yet give me hope)

Tier 3: (Lean incumbent)
8. Maine (Allen's a good candidate with the resources necessary - Collins is a 2 termer with good popularity - tough race.)
9. North Carolina - Hagan's very competitive and she and the DSCC have not yet begun to advertise.  That plus Obama organizing and higher black turnout could knock out the unimpressive Dole.
10. Louisiana - Kennedy will be handily outspent by Landrieu in a democratic year with black turnout which should at least equal past year's.  I'm not sure how much the NSRC will be able to spend.
11. Minnesota - Franken's toughest stuff is behind him and he has the warchest and ground game to compete hard against the freshman flip-flopper, but Coleman still has the advantage.

Tier 4: (Likely incumbent)
12. Kentucky - If Lunsford spends 15M then we have a game.  Wealthy self-funders sometimes fail to spend what they need.
13. Georgia - Martin seems like a solid candidate and has even scratched up a little cash.  If he wins the primary, I think he can take advantage of black turnout and Obama investment in the state to give the freshman a good run.

If it's a slightly Dem env - I think we win a net of 6 seats.  If it's a medium wave, we win 9-10.  A giant 1980/94/06 wave then 12!

Idaho,  Kansas, Oklahoma, and TX are too red (and maybe too white) or too expensive and the Dems are not that impressive and have not raised funds effectively.


My August Predictions have changed a bit
Tier 1 (Better than a 50/50 chance)

VA
NM
NH
AK
CO
OR

Tier 2 (With the wind at our backs)

MS B
MN
NC
KY
ME

Tier 3 (With a sea change election)

KS
ID
OK
NE
LA (Dem)

No way/ No how!

TN
SC
GA
MS A
WY A
WY B

Democratic
None of the seats outside LA is in any danger.

I forgot to put
TX in at tier 3 just below KS
My memory is gone
AL no way no how just below GA
my early August cattle call - Senate
1. Virginia - Gilmore is ridiculous and it amazes me that the Va. GOP actually schemed to rig system to discourage a primary with Rep. Davis.  The Virginia GOP is sinking under the weight of their wingnut base.  Fabulous.

2. New Hampshire - hard to recall the last time Sununu was above the 50% marker

3. New Mexico - Tom Udall has sustained his lead while GOP nominates wingnut Rep. Pearce which about seals the deal.

4. Alaska - should Stevens stand down GOP chances would improve but I can't see him losing in primary or winning in the general election at this time.

so +4 gains in bank

5. Colorado - Schaeffer is running a campaign worthy of his 10th place all time wingnut ranking of 20th Century members of Congress.

6. Oregon - Smith is running ads including positive associations with John Kerry of all people.  Desperation this early indicates to me a collapsing campaign in a relatively progressive state.

so add 2 more probable pick ups.

Toss-ups

7. Minnesota - Al Franken had a bad month and needs to realign his campaign before he runs out of time.

8. Louisiana - Landrieu is holding strong and Kennedy does not seem to be polling as well as the GOP is overall in the state.  As long as her campaign remains competent I see Landrieu winning re-election in a close race about 53-47.

9. Mississippi - Wicker v. Musgrove.  If the black voter turnout is as strong as registration suggests in 2008, Musgrove can win if he can get about 30ish per cent of the white vote.  But can he with Obama a top the Dem ticket in deeply Confederate Mississippi?

10. Maine - I am increasingly pessimistic about this race.  I do not see Allen gaining traction.  Collins to be re-elected unless the Allen campaign finds a good issue in a hurry.

possible flips:

11. Kentucky - McConnell may follow in the foot steps of Tom Daschle and lose while at the apex of his career.  Recent dust-up with supporters of fmr. GOP Gov. Fletcher dims McConnell's popularity with wingnut base.

12. North Carolina - there are signs of good trends for the Democrats in this state.  The Research Triangle + increased mobilized black electorate = Kay Hagan might surprise on election day.  I lost any residual respect for Elizabeth Dole after she wanted to rename the recent AIDS authorization bill in honor of the late Sen. Jesse Helms.

13. Texas - Hispanic voter surge is impressive.  Cornyn not particularly popular in a GOP leaning state so I see him winning but more narrowly than most expect.

14. Kansas - Pat Roberts is the definition of inertia.  That usually is enough for a Republican to win statewide in Kansas, but Slattery has won in Kansas and should mount a respectable campaign.  If only I could induce all my relatives in Kansas to vote Dem. Roberts would lose in a landslide. Unfortunately .......

15. Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe is probably the worst Senator currently in the Senate and Oklahoma does have the worst pair of Senators (wingnut Tom Coburn is the other Okla. Senator).  Andrew Rice is running a respectable enough campagin to merit watching which is amazing in deeply Red Oklahoma.

16. GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is impressing no one.  Unfortunately, Idaho is used to this and Larry LaRocco faces steep odds indeed.

others: Georgia (Chambliss), Nebraska (Johanns), South Carolina (Graham)

Safe: Dems: Pryor, Biden, Durbin, Levin, Baucus, Harkin, Kerry, Schumer, Lautenberg, Reed, Rockefeller
GOP: Sessions, Alexander, Cochran, Enzi

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

Comparison of June and August Rankings
Here is a table showing the average August rankings (41 entries) and the change from June (27 entries) in parentheses.  NC=No Change.

1. Virginia (NC)
2. New Mexico (NC)
3. New Hampshire (NC)
4. Alaska (+1)
5. Colorado (-1)
6. Oregon (+1)
7. Mississippi (-1)
8. Minnesota (NC)
9. North Carolina (NC)
10. Maine (+1)
11. Louisiana (-1)
12. Kentucky (NC)
13. Texas (+1)
14. Idaho (+3)
15. Kansas (-2)
16. Oklahoma (NC)
17. Georgia (+2)
18. Nebraska (-3)

Only races mentioned on at least one third of the entries for both June and August are included on the list.  New Jersey dropped off because it was only included in 4 of the 41 August entries.

August Senate Cattle Call | 135 comments

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