ME-Sen: Can Allen Seal the Deal?

Earlier in the day, Markos billed the likely matchup between Maine’s Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Susan Collins (R) for control of her Senate seat in 2008 as a “battle of the titans”, which leads me to ask: does Allen really have what it takes to win this thing?

Now, I’m not trying to say that Allen is a weak candidate.  In a state with only two House districts, it’s clear that Allen would be a fairly serious threat to an entrenched Collins.  But with a Senator as popular as Collins (who enjoys a whopping 73% approval last November, according to the latest SUSA tracking poll in November), Allen will have to execute a perfect campaign in order to win.

Let’s check his track record as of late.  Here’s how he fared in 2006, according to CNN:

Allen (D): 61
Curley (R): 31
Kamilewicz (I): 8

And here’s his 2004 performance:

Allen (D): 60
Summers (R): 40

Allen’s district has a PVI of D+6.2.  His House colleague, Democrat Mike Michaud, occupies a seat that’s a shade less Democratic at D+3.5.  In his sophomore re-election bid in 2004, he won by a margin of 58-39, a margin very similar to Allen’s, who had been serving since 1998 by this point.  In 2006, Michaud crushed his Republican opponent by a 70-30 margin.

Now, there are a lot of dynamics left unstated here: Kamilewicz, his 2006 third-party opponent, ran a peace campaign that probably cut into his left flank, although it only cost a mere $42,000.  And while Allen enjoyed a 4-1 spending advantage over Republican Darlene Curley in 2006, he didn’t exactly saturate the market with his total expenditures of $650,000.  But the point I’m trying to make is this: winning with 60%, especially in a Democratic year such as 2006, doesn’t leave me feeling overwhelmed.

Does anyone have a better sense as to why Allen hasn’t been able to peak above 60% since 2002?

13 thoughts on “ME-Sen: Can Allen Seal the Deal?”

  1. Like you said, the third party candidate ran on a peace platform which definitely cut into Allen’s vote.  Without Kamilewicz, Allen wins by 35+ points…I don’t know what more you want.

  2. The CW on my state electorate is that we are cranky and independent.  And that’s true to a certain degree.

    But being next door to Maine, I can say that they are really and truly independent, and that means independent from any kinds of trends I can eke out.  Because of that, I would rank 60% in ME as high enough to take Collins on and win.

    Iraq, and the fact that Collins is breaking her two-term limit pledge is going to hurt her bad and cut into that significant approval rating.

    I poke my head around Turn Maine Blue at times to see if I can figure out this ornery, wonderful state, which in some ways is like a country all to itself.

  3. Collins wins.  60-40.  This is a state that likes its incumbents.  Olympia Snowe was just reelected with 70% of the vote in a year that favored Democrats.  Maine likes Susan Collins and respects her moderate stance. 

  4. It has been six years since I left my home state of Maine, miss it terribly at times.  My take is that Allen would have a very tough time.  Collins is from Caribou in the 2nd district, and Allen, of course, is from Portland in the 1st.  Collins has a built in advantage because it seems that it is tougher to win statewide when you’re from the 1st.  At times Portland  becomes a four letter word in the 2nd.  I’m not saying this sentiment is right, but just seems that way. 

  5. It would be a tossup until he returns are in.  But a deal would most probably have to be struck with Greens and Indepedents if we were to secure a victory.  I also believe every Democratic woman in the Senate would have to go to Maine and campaign against Collins.  Ads involving hypocritical votes on pro-choice and energy issues would certainly corner her, as would adds that highlight her complicity with the radical right.  A Katrina ad may also sink her.  But get out the vote operations in Portland and on the University of Maine campus will be key to her defeat.  I think it can be done, but it will be a nailbiter.  And Allen was on the floor of the House tonight discussing his stance on Iraq.  Allen appears to be ready, and I think he can do it. 

    Also, Martha Rainville earned 45% in VT in 2006.  yes, the seat was open, but this illustrates how a moderate GOP candidate can still sway voters in the northeast.  Allen should go for it.

  6. than Michaud-D ME-02, based on voting records. Michaud-D ME-02 is a tad to the right of Tom Allen with National Journal Ratings ranging from 30% Foreign,35% Social & 36% Ecomonic- Conservative as opposed to Allen’s 18%/25%/31%. My opinion is that the 8% for Kamilewicz-I, who ran to the Left of Allen was as much of a protest for Allen’s less than perfect Left/Progressive record and the fact that most who voted for Kamilewicz were not concerned about Allen losing to a Repub. and more interested in making a statement. Heck, the Green Party candidate for Governor picked up 10% of the vote.
    I believe Allen has the experience and fire in his belly and would be a more contrasting choice to successfully mount a challenge to Collins-R. To add to lousianagirl’s statements on Collins, they also need to go after her for her failure to support the Gay Rights Proposition which passed the last time it was on the ballot there. Hit her on Equal rights issues and show how not open-minded she actually is.

  7. I read an interesting comment on a message board (which I now can’t find) about why Collins and Snowe are both so popular – it’s because the state’s largest employer is Bath Iron Works, which produces destroyers for the Navy, and Republicans are seen as being stronger on defense. Thing is, with all of the military consolidation going on to sustain Bush’s Iraq boondoggle, Bath’s days are probably numbered.

    It is, however, less vulnerable than the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (technically in Maine, but claimed by New Hampshire in defiance of a 2001 US Supreme Court ruling so that NH workers don’t have to pay income tax). Portsmouth’s speciality is servicing Los Angeles-class nuclear subs, which are technically obsolete and require two years to refuel. The Navy wants to get rid of its LA-class subs and replace them with more modern designs that don’t need refueling. They try to close Portsmouth literally once every couple of years, only to always be overruled by the united NH and ME congressional delegations (Judd Gregg in particular has major mojo with the Pentagon, which I think is part of the reason why NH voters keep him around).

    If the Navy ever succeeds in closing either of these shipyards, the political fallout will be immense. Currently, Allen can point to having been part of the delegation that saved those two shipyards, but if the Navy were to try to close either of them again in 2008 and actually succeeded, you can bet Allen and Collins both would be screaming at each other, pointing fingers, and most likely the myth of “Republicans are strong on defense” would perpetuate itself again. (Similarly, if the Navy tried to close Portsmouth again and actually succeeded, Shea-Porter could easily lose the election on that one issue.)

  8. One issue to hit Senator Susan Collins with would be the fact that if she stands for re-election in 2008 she will be breaking her two-term limit pledge that she was so fond of trumpeting earlier in her career.  She first made the pledge in 1996 and strongly reiterated it in 2002.  Fast forward to 2008 and she suddenly sees the value of seniority.  This revelation occurred to a former staff member to Senator Cohen of Maine mind you, it is not like she was niave to the ways of Congress before she went to Washington.

    If there is any political movement I find more insipid and anti-democratic than the term limit pledge movement I don’t know what it is.  Term limits violate my right to vote for whomever I damn well please and who in the world are policy wonks to tell me who can represent me in the US Congress, the state Capitol, or on City or County Councils?  Grumble.

    So Collins was an idiot for ever making the two term pledge and she is a liar now for breaking it. 

    Hammer time for the Democrats!

  9. One of the reasons that I feel that Susan Collins is defeatable is that Maine has turned out popular female incumbents before.  In 1972 William Hathaway defeated moderate Republican Icon Margaret Chase Smith who was considered unbeatable.  Six years later in 1978 William Cohen defeated Hathaway in his re-election effort.  Susan Collins served on Cohen’s Senatorial staff prior to being elected in her own right in 1996.

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