I'm feeling better

hagan's slide has stopped, which tells me that it was Dole's ad campaign that moved the numbers. Soon both sides will be engaged, the polls will tighten and this will remain a top-tier race.

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by: RandySF @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 15:31:07 PM UTC

9 from 14 points

getting closer . . .

It seems Schumer is determined to have Hagen win as well, she'll have every resource she'll ever want to win the race. I expect a nail biting photo finish come Nov. here.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 15:39:53 PM UTC

Obama can win NC

McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.

If Obama wins as big a share of the white vote as shown in this poll (a big if), he'll win North Carolina.  The PPP poll has the black vote on 82 O/8 M/5 B.  Obama will win 90% of the black vote.  Such an outcome, again holding the white vote the same, would have Obama winning in this poll.

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by: tilthouse @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 16:50:11 PM UTC

5% of AA's voting for Barr

is a hilarious result...

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by: dpinzow1 @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 18:41:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Demographics are a bit off

The poll included 77% white - 20% black breakdown.  The actual breakdown of registered voters as of 12/31/07 was 75% white - 23% black.

If you add those black voters in, the races would be:
Obama 46%
McCain 45%

Dole 47%
Hagan 42%

And even this ignores thousands of new voter registrations from 2008, when the contested presidential primary came to NC in May.

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by: bear83 @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 19:16:38 PM UTC

Good

I like when the demographics in polls are slightly skewed against us. Makes us work harder.

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by: Hamtree @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 21:20:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not all registered voters vote in equal numbers

In the vast ajority of places around the country minority voters have lower turnout.  I'd assume that is the case in NC.  Although Obama running should raise their turnout higher than usual.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 22:00:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]