Two weeks ago we looked at the racial breakdown of population changes from the years 2000 to 2007 in the states that are projected to gain seats after the 2010 census. In many of the states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada) Hispanic growth far outpaced white growth, and this was especially pronounced in Texas. I vowed to return to this when the 2007 estimate, broken down by congressional district or county, was released; well, it hasn’t, but I thought I’d look at the changes from the 2000 census to the 2006 estimate, broken down by county.
The changes are pretty dramatic, and they show that the Hispanic and African-American growth is solidly concentrated in the metropolitan areas (which was something I was concerned about when I last posted on this). For redistricting purposes, it helps us immensely to have this growth concentrated as much as possible, so that even if the Texas GOP controls the redistricting process, they may have no choice but to concede several new majority-minority or ‘influence’ House districts, instead of being able to disperse and dilute those votes.
In the following tables, I’ve broken the large counties down by the metro area they’re part of. There’s also a separate table for ‘rest of the state,’ which is all of the counties that are left over.
Houston area
| County | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazoria | 46,131 | 10,363 | 10,027 | 7,274 | 17,628 |
| Fort Bend | 138,735 | 31,662 | 32,575 | 32,832 | 37,973 |
| Galveston | 33,393 | 15,056 | 1,049 | 2,795 | 12,485 |
| Harris | 485,629 | -4,677 | 95,933 | 35,369 | 364,560 |
| Montgomery | 104,522 | 64,104 | 7,022 | 3,873 | 29,027 |
Dallas area
| County | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin | 207,176 | 99,096 | 26,944 | 35,834 | 42,912 |
| Dallas | 126,826 | -139,664 | 33,058 | 15,357 | 221,832 |
| Denton | 151,262 | 74,506 | 15,295 | 14,986 | 41,487 |
| Tarrant | 225,076 | 31,307 | 44,605 | 18,331 | 129,308 |
San Antonio and Austin area
| County | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexar | 162,661 | 9,515 | 9,725 | 10,310 | 132,625 |
| Travis | 108,726 | 20,270 | 4,161 | 14,309 | 70,191 |
| Williamson | 103,863 | 56,529 | 6,916 | 6,645 | 28,123 |
South Texas
| County | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron | 52,490 | -3,825 | -363 | 1,755 | 50,988 |
| Hidalgo | 131,171 | 2,365 | 812 | 2,079 | 123,642 |
| Nueces | 7,812 | -7,164 | -595 | 564 | 14,130 |
Other major counties
| County | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | 19,973 | 3,156 | 6,399 | 1,683 | 9,307 |
| El Paso | 56,988 | -11,704 | -634 | 1,048 | 67,699 |
| Jefferson | -8,137 | -13,138 | -1,099 | -215 | 6,011 |
| Lubbock | 12,234 | 554 | 180 | 749 | 10,207 |
| McLennan | 13,372 | 1,195 | 729 | 1,476 | 9,205 |
Rest of state
| Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 872,657 | 270,799 | 72,870 | 26,253 | 511,393 |
As you can see, there is a huge concentration of Hispanic growth in Harris County (Houston and its closest suburbs), to the extent that even if Republicans solely control the redistricting process they may have to concede the creation of a new Hispanic-majority district in central and south-west Houston (probably accompanied by pushing the current 7th further out into the western suburbs to maintain its strong Republican lean).
There also looks like the possibility of a Hispanic-majority district in Dallas, particularly if it’s a barbell-shaped district that takes in western Dallas and the central part of Fort Worth with a strip of suburbs in between (accompanied by pushing the 24th and 32nd further north into Collin and Denton Counties, fast-growing conservative exurbs to the north of Dallas). If Republicans control redistricting, they might not want to concede this district as well, but the population numbers might pave the way for a Voting Rights Act vote-dilution lawsuit that could force the creation of the district anyway.
Remaining Hispanic growth seems dispersed enough that the remaining two seats (of the four Texas is predicted to gain) are likely to be those long, squiggly Republican-leaning rural seats that the Texas GOP seems to love so much. But even there, the Texas Republicans are going to be fighting a slowly losing battle, building bulwarks against a rising tide.
UPDATE: It was asked in the comments if this data was available broken down by congressional district. As with counties, it isn’t broken down by congressional district for 2007, but it is for 2006, so here are the districts in the two major metro areas:
Houston area
| District | 2000-04 PVI | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-02 (north suburbs) | R+12 | 95,936 | 5,766 | 36,233 | 10,339 | 44,521 |
| TX-07 (west Houston) | R+16 | 111,479 | 10,157 | 34,502 | 16,457 | 53,946 |
| TX-08 (Montgomery Co.) | R+20 | 112,708 | 71,110 | 3,618 | 4,381 | 32,795 |
| TX-09 (south Houston) | D+21 | 46,698 | -21,186 | 5,334 | -1,836 | 72,098 |
| TX-10 (west suburbs) | R+13 | 197,489 | 58,452 | 21,843 | 22,577 | 91,974 |
| TX-14 (Brazoria, Galveston Cos.) | R+14 | 80,660 | 30,099 | 5,389 | 6,249 | 33,776 |
| TX-18 (north Houston) | D+23 | 35,176 | -22,950 | -1,530 | -16 | 61,501 |
| TX-22 (Fort Bend Co.) | R+15 | 156,439 | 12,262 | 44,954 | 35,114 | 62,637 |
| TX-29 (east Houston) | D+8 | 38,363 | -34,178 | -507 | 3,034 | 71,678 |
Dallas area
| District | 2000-04 PVI | Total gain | White gain | Af.-Am. gain | Asian gain | Hispanic gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-03 (Collin Co.) | R+17 | 161,646 | 39,434 | 32,662 | 34,758 | 57,888 |
| TX-04 (Collin Co.) | R+17 | 129,236 | 64,729 | 14,452 | 8,631 | 38,159 |
| TX-05 (eastern suburbs) | R+16 | 62,297 | 4,304 | 11,094 | 3,112 | 44,988 |
| TX-06 (southern suburbs) | R+15 | 100,664 | 4,912 | 34,321 | 5,874 | 56,831 |
| TX-12 (Ft. Worth) | R+14 | 98,789 | 44,514 | 6,271 | 5,363 | 43,648 |
| TX-24 (airport area) | R+15 | 115,310 | -15,695 | 28,387 | 23,600 | 79,641 |
| TX-26 (Denton Co.) | R+12 | 162,261 | 73,887 | 8,893 | 11,041 | 63,934 |
| TX-30 (south Dallas) | D+26 | 31,221 | -23,647 | -7,824 | -364 | 60,496 |
| TX-32 (north Dallas) | R+11 | 2,734 | -45,354 | 6,716 | -1,596 | 44,824 |
This puts into pretty stark relief why TX-07, TX-10, and TX-32 are suddenly on everyone’s maps: demographically, they’re totally different districts than they were four, let alone eight, years ago.
Have they released the population growth by district numbers that you talked about in your previous piece? I would be curious to see the Hispanic vs. Black growth in some of the inner city Houston and Dallas districts. Will it help us in any way if we win control of the Texas state House this year, or would we also need to win the Governor or Senate to have an impact on redistricting. If by some miracle we win one or both of those, is it possible that we could make all 4 new districts (or 3/4) Democrat leaning, and if so, where could they be located. And is there sufficient population growth to put another left leaning district in Travis County?
The republicans overstretched themselves in 2004 and were forced by the court to redraw a few districts in south TX to create another heavily Hispanic district. Of course the district affected the most was Bonilla’s which was made far more democratic allowing Rodriguez to defeat him in 2006.
his district, which includes the areas recieving most of the growth in Fort Bend county, as well as the northern portions of Brazoria and Galveston, as well as a southern portion of Harris, is a demographic timebomb that shows that he’s recieving a lot of hispanic, asian and even black voters, making this district by 2010 a presidential toss-up (although there’s no presidential contest here). I also think that with the growth in the Houston area, that we can have 2 districts encompassing Southwest Houston (Fort Bend, Harris) and a Gulf Coast district encompassing Jefferson, Galveston and the Space complex (similar to Lampson’s old district) that could both be held by dems.
Sheila Jackson Lee also needs to watch out, her district is no longer majority/plurality black, and she’ll need to make major inroads towards the Asian community and also the whites if she doesn’t want to lose a la Al Greene.
But this is really an important incentive to regain the Texas House, and at least one (if not 2 or 3) of the statewide offices to give us atleast a fair seat at the table for the redistricting process.
I love this stuff. My father moved to Montgomerey County just North of Houston from Los Angeles a few years back. And although I’m sure he wouldn’t say it, or maybe he would, I’m sure it was to get away from,’ all the god damned liberals and illegal immigrants.’ haha Kinda warms my heart, especially since I don’t have to live there.
Irony is fun.
With the massive growth in all groups except whites I’d imagine Texas will soon be an all-minority state, all races making up less than 50% of the population that is.
The Hispanic growth is not relevant in Texas for two reasons: the Hispanics are either not here legally or they are not voting. Simply look at Hispanic majority districts represented by fellow Hispanics and you will notice that turnout is very low (Linda Sanchez, Joe Baca, etc.). Sheila Jackson Lee, Diane Watson, Laura Richardson, and Maxine Waters all represent Hispanic majority districts. Had Hispanics been eligible to vote, I could assure you that they would not be represented by an African-American.
Republicans in Texas are very creative and they will find a way of diluting the Hispanic population, without creating another safe Democratic seat. The one thing the GOP in Texas should fear is what soon will be reality: those here illegally will eventually get a pathway to citizenship. As a result the GOP will get knocked out of office one by one. Racism eventually catches up with the GOP. It’s simply a matter of time.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Take it for a grain of salt considering the internals of this poll are complete BS. This poll is composed of 43% republicans, 38% democrats, 17% independents. Anyone who knows anything about FL can tell you there is no way in hell republicans have a 5% edge in voters. It’s 50/50 R/D or better for us.
McCain – 50
Obama – 44
Remember that the Republican strategy in re-drawing the Texas map was not to eliminate Latino or African American districts, but to eliminate white Democratic districts — a cynical, racist attempt to make the GOP the white party, and the Democrats the black and brown party in Texas. Look at who they went after — Charlie Stenholm (successfully), Nick Lampson (successfully for a time), Chet Edwards (unsuccessfully), Max Sandlin (successfully, but he got to marry Stephanie Herseth, so he’s doing OK!) — and I may be missing one or two others. They had gone so far in this direction they had to tinker with South Texas enough to be able to beat Bonilla. As these demographics change, this party is going to have a hell of a recent history to back away from.
Those numbers are really going to make this a race if he can capitalize on them.
All of those Katrina evacuees fled to? I think there were tens of thousands of mostly black people who relocated to the Houston area after the flood.
The very high Asian growth in the 22nd is in. I know part of the space industry is located there with many high income related jobs. Could that be part of the reason for the large Asian growth in that district?
… to http://www.burntorangereport.com ? This is an excellent piece and I’ve love to have it in front of our Texas audience.
First, this is a really good diary. Thank you.
Second, polling is generally based on “likely voters”. The enormous bulk of the growth in the population will be considered “unlikely voters”. Polling firms are really struggling with information like what you have. It’s not like they are unaware, but they don’t know how to process it.
Third, in many state (not Texas), there is a voter registration/GOTV effort unlike anything we have seen at this scale in our nation’s history. I believe that it means that polling Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Missouri are underestimating Obama’s real strength.
if you gave the incumbent Representatives of the districts, just to make things very easy to interpret. TX-07 is Culberson’s district, right?
are really moving in our direction. It’s just like California in early 1990s after a similarily popular former Republican Governor had previously dominated it Presidentially. The McCain/Bush Sr. similarities are also striking. But, with that kind of growth I don’t see how they can maintain wins. Look at TX-22. That makes me bullish on Lampson’s chances, I mean 100,000 growth in black and hispanic populations? If minority turnout is high enough, hewins, plain and simple.
Great breakdown. But it’s still a wait and see to what comes of these numbers. Very much so a “…”. Noriega will be a test run, but hopefully we’ll know for sure by 2010 (Governor’s race, probable senate special election).
Congressman Chris Bell was drawn into a majority Hispanic district in 2004 and got destroyed something like 65-35% in the Dem primary. Bell did run for Governor in 2006 and only lost by about 9 points.
Now that the 2008 population estimates have been released, I think it’d be helpful to see if trends have been slowed by the recession or have continued to plod stoically onwards.