Why is this happening?

It's happening because this is a horrible pollster, that's why.  This poll is the poster child for bizarre outlier polls everywhere.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 22:00:25 PM UTC

My thoughts?

Don't worry too much. One poll doesn't make a trend. I remember everybody getting in a panic over that ARG that showed Sununu ahead then the very next poll was back to a huge Shaheen lead. Their last out just yesterday showed a more than 20 point lead. Yes, ARG aren't the greatest pollsters in the world but they are based in NH and surely even they can't be wrong by that much. It isn't quite in the bag yet but even if this poll is correct he is still behind and way under 50%. The correct rating is Lean D and I expect her to win quite comfortably in the end.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 22:05:30 PM UTC

Thanks for the added point, James.

And I want to make one other point. It matters a lot less if Jeanne Shaheen gets a lousy poll than if Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes do. Shaheen's race gets polled every so often by other outfits, so if she gets screwed by UNH, there's going to be a Rasmussen poll or something to correct the record a little soon.

Shea-Porter and Hodes won't be the subjects of any other public polling for a few more months, and having a lousy public poll like this can really mess with their fundraising for a while. Each of them has at least once this cycle been hit with a truly ridiculous fluctuation on the in-district sample (this time it's Hodes, last time it was Shea-Porter). That's truly crappy for them.  

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by: MissLaura @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 22:38:33 PM UTC

ARG poll for NH-Sen

Released yesterday, has Shaheen up by 20+ points

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by: unertl @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 23:01:17 PM UTC

Both ARG and UNH

Suck. The one thing about the UNH poll is that the previous poll had McCain leading while this one has Obama in front, so I don't think you can put it all on party ID.

I'm guessing the results are probably somewhere between UNH and ARG, a 10-15 pt. lead for Shaheen sounds right.

I've long believed that this race could tighten because Sununu is a helluva campaigner and he's still got a lot of money and he won't go down without a fight.

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by: safi @ Wed Jul 23, 2008 at 23:38:25 PM UTC

I don't think it is all party ID,

though I think that's representative of poor methodology in general here.

But with the change in the presidential outcome, relevant that there were a lot of die-hard Clinton supporters in this state and that's obviously changed.  Since Sununu really hasn't been campaigning yet, it's hard to see what's changed there -- he is a good campaigner with a lot of money, but he hasn't been using it much yet.

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by: MissLaura @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 00:00:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think it will tighten much

Sununu is still voting as a straight line Bushbot.  At least Smith, Collins and Coleman are pretending to be moderates.  Barring a major gaffe Shaheen is probably headed for an 8-15 point victory with the higher end being more likely than the lower.  

I somehow doubt hard campaigning by Sununu will change the minds of many NH voters in his favor.  His voting record might be a good fit for Texas or Wyoming, but not New Hampshire.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 00:04:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chad I think

You and I have disagreed on this race in 3-4 different threads, so let's leave it at an agree to disagree.

MissLaura, the thing about the NH poll is that the difference was mainly McCain's drop rather than Obama's rise. Obama only went up 3 points in the polls, within the MOE, but McCain dropped 6.

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by: safi @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 01:25:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too Complacent? Yes!

I will not comment on the veracity of the UNH or ARG polls - hard to argue with MissLaura.  Instead I want to point to the threat the Shaheen campaign is facing, which should discourage complacency when watching our race: Americans for Job Security (AJS) and similar Republican front groups.

AJS  is dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into NH to attack Governor Shaheen, this money is the gun turret atop John Sununu's $5.2 million cash on hand tank (to Shaheen's $1.2m).

Something to please keep in mind when you are feeling complacent.

Jonathan Schleifer
Jeanne Shaheen for Senate

PS - We have a petition to demand that AJS disclose their donors - please sign it and bring some light to this group: http://jeanneshaheen.org/ajs

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by: jonathanchad @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 00:07:09 AM UTC

LA-07 Don Cravins added to Emerging Races list.

http://dccc.org/blog/archives/...

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 04:28:31 AM UTC

Not a shoe in

Last time, IIRC, Shaheen also had a big early lead and Sununu closed strongly.  After the fact, people criticized Shaheen for playing things too conservatively.  I never though this would end up a 10 or 15 point race for a bunch of reasons:

1) Oil prices.  I vividly remember parts of nice big, old houses in Manchester being boardsed up in the winter of 1980 when the state's economy was doing pretty good.  Those prices at the pump have a double kick in northern New England.  

2) Taxes.  Nobody in the country is more tax-phobic than New Hasmpshireites.  As the President from West Wing said the state motto could be expanded to read "Live Free or Die or as Cheap as You Can."

3) Judd Gregg.  Gregg has Sununu's back in a way.  Think Sununu is too conservative?  He's more moderate than Gregg.  Yeah, that's not saying much and the spread isn't huge but ...

4) The war chest (and now more).

5) Two for one.  Look for McCain and Sununu to fight together.  This is one eastern state McCain thinks he can win.

Yes, there was phone jamming but NH is still a pretty fair election environment with a high turnout.  Make the case and we win but make the case.  And yes, it will be a fight.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:31:16 PM UTC

Gregg isn't more conservative

Every single study of voting records I've ever seen had Sununu not just a little but MUCH more conservative than Gregg.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:36:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here is one measurement

According to the American Conservative Union, a decent indicator of how conservative a member is, Sununu has al ifetime score of 92 while Gregg has a 78.  Thats a awefully wide gap between the two.

http://www.acuratings.org/2007...
           2007 2006 YOS Life

Sen   GREGG   72  72  23  78.39
     SUNUNU  84  88  11  92.33  

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:57:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also, the war chest doesn't give Sununu an advantage

The DSCC has a massive edge in funds.  Any money Shaheen might need during the campaign will likely be given to her.  That is money the NRSC cannot afford to match.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 21:38:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This seat has a history of being a heartbreaker...

2002.  We thought we had it and Sununu take it.  Of course strong Republican year + phone jamming.  But in 1996 also had troglodyte Republican Bob Smith come back after the race was initially called for Swett.

Can't take anything for granted.  Hopefully the earlier polls are correct and we can win this one big.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 22:03:14 PM UTC

But more recent history

Has NH being a heartbreaker for republicans.  In 2004 we took the Governor's mansion.  Then in 2006 nowhere did the Dem wave hit harder than NH.  Governor's race was a landslide win, both congressional seats were pickups and massive shifts in the state House and Senate.  I'll take recent history as a better indicator than ancient history.

History now has three cycles, B.C., A.D. and A.A (After Obama).  This new era of A.A. will usher in a new era of prosperity for mankind.  Global warming will be stopped, poverty ended forever, and world peace will become a reality all thanks to President Obama.  

Well ok... maybe that's stretching it a bit... maybe.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Jul 24, 2008 at 23:39:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]