Wow.

I wonder how many R Senators decide to follow his lead.  Sounds like a trifecta in NY is a done deal.

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by: omarka @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 17:58:53 PM CDT

R.I.P. NY Republican Party

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by: RandySF @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:07:52 PM CDT

R.I.P. NY Republican Party

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by: RandySF @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:13:45 PM CDT

Marriage equality in New York soon to come?

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by: lorax @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:34:06 PM CDT

Probably civil unions

People are way too optimistic about the chances of gay marriage under Democratic majorities.  Would the NY state assembly pass it? Yes, probably so with the super majority we have in that chamber.  But sadly it's going to take more than a 1 or 2 seat majority in the state senate to pass it.  Unless we get a working majority in the NY senate all I see happening is civil unions in the near future.

Look at New Hampshire for a prime example.  We have big majorities in that state's legislature and a Dem Governor and they just barely had the votes for Civil Unions.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:46:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

actually,

we'll lose a few dems on this vote. sen diaz of the bronx for sure, but we'll probably pick up even more reps. this isn't such a huge issue with a number of them the way that it is with national GOoPs.

that said, bruno's bolt and the number of open seats that will likely be created by a whole slew of geezers who will follow him out the door, creates an environment where we could conceivably pick up 6-7 seats this cycle.

the outlook for marriage equality in NY was pretty good before this news, it's much better now.

"joke about the rapture here"

it's time:the albany project

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by: lipris @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:56:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ya think party switchers too?

I know there are quite a few repubs in the state senate representing overwhelmingly democratic districts.  I'd assume those who survive 2008 may want to consider jumping ship.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 19:03:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

hmmm

A 5 seat pickup or so is probably necessary.

But with Bruno out it's actually fairly plausible.

My impression is that Democrats are at +3 seats with a couple of others at 50/50.

There are about 4-5 seats along the Hudson that Democrats would win if their Republican incumbents retire, 3-4 on Long Island.  Perhaps a couple more upstate.  In 2010 or 2012 Democrats might well have 40+ seats if the usual retirement wave happens.

There's a pretty strict geographical split on gay marriage legalization along the crest of the Appalachians.  There's only a single state Senator in favor of it on the western side, and he represents a heavily black district in Buffalo.

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by: Baystater @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 19:55:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So who will the Lt. Governor be?

Will it be the majority party leader for whichever party wins the state senate in November?

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:35:39 PM CDT

we won't have a lt governor

until january of 2011. whomever is the senate majority leader will serve as "acting governor" whenever the governor leaves the state.

"joke about the rapture here"

it's time:the albany project

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by: lipris @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:39:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Bruno resigns early

We'd be down to 31-30. What if someone else - Trunzo? - also bailed early? Then we'd be tied at 30-30. Would the GOP still control?

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 22:36:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

could we pressure a moderate to flip

They have to see the writing on the wall, someone must want to not have to worry about re-election for the rest of their career.

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by: Conniver @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 23:15:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes

because there's no Lt. Governor to break the tie, the GOP keeps control.

If Bruno goes early, his replacement will likely be Dean Skelos of Long Island. He'd be the acting Lt. Governor  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 08:57:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

we're all over this

over at the albany project.

"joke about the rapture here"

it's time:the albany project

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by: lipris @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 18:40:47 PM CDT

Well

The NY Democratic Party should start to invest some serious resources into this race, with Bruno out of the picture. This looks like an excellent Dem pickup opportunity. And upstate NY is trending Democratic at a rapid rate.

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by: jpsrosa @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 19:01:36 PM CDT

Look at the Albany Projest numbers on Bruno's district

http://www.thealbanyproject.co...

Registered before 1990 - 27083 R 14132 D 19001 Other
Registered since Jan 2002 -12194 R 13904 D 18436 Other

The 43rd still has a bigt republican registration edge, but of those registered since 2002, most are democrats.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 19:05:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Who is the likely Democratic Senate Majority leader?

Assuming we take the NY state senate, which I think is likely, who is set to be the majority leader?  I'm hoping he or she is a solid progressive who will work hard to push through progressive legislation.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 20:02:18 PM CDT

Malcolm Smith from Queens

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by: Conniver @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 20:05:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK, looked him up

He seems to have an impressive resume and looks sounds progressive enough.  And if we do take the senate New York will have an African-American Governor and Senate Majority Leader!

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 20:13:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

he's ok but we could do better i think

he has a good resume and is okay on policy, but the couple of times i have seen him on my teevee isnt the most convincing or effective speaker to be honest...

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by: Ajax the Greater @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 21:18:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

eh

There's some doubt about that.  Seems that a lot of the Democratic caucus wants someone else as Majority Leader.

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by: Baystater @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 23:17:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yeah I know their has been some bitching about him

I don't mind him, I actually think he's pretty good, he is a little dry on floor but he seems to be a solid progressive and not an asshole like Silver in the assembly.(The few times I have observed the state races, I prefer federal elections but since its my home state I read The Albany Project to at least keep informed and don't like Trunzo, so I have been following it a little.) But I have heard that some people want him out.

But for right now he's the "likely" Majority Leader, we can always have the backstabbing and infighting that New York Politics is famous for after we win, as long as we get to census with the majority and ungerrymander the chamber,we'll control it forever. So we can then hope to push reformers into the positions of power in both chambers, and actually get something done on the state level.  

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by: Conniver @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 23:38:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

NY-13

Hopefully this won't provoke State Sen. Lanza from reconsidering his decision to stay in the Senate and run for the open seat.  Not that I doubt that McMahon wouldn't win easily, but a challenge from Lanza might force Dems to spend more money here than we would with whatever D-list candidate the GOP ends up with, and that's money better spent in other vulnerable districts.

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by: WestCoastMC @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 21:27:27 PM CDT

I'd rather have...

...one more NY state senator than one more congressman. A flip of the chamber is likely but by no means a sure thing, and even if it does flip we'll need to pad that margin to make any real progress.

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by: epenthesis @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 21:39:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Looks Like....

Eliot Spitzer got what he wanted after all.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Jun 23, 2008 at 21:28:16 PM CDT

if he'd stuck around

i bet bruno would've done the same

since making spitzer's life miserable seemed to be his only joy left in life...

It is difficult to get the news from poems, but men die miserably every day for lack of what is found there. --William Carlos Williams

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by: RichardPlatypus @ Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 02:34:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]