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ME-Sen: Collins' Lead Shrinks to Seven

by: The Caped Composer

Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 4:18 PM EDT


(This topic deserves more analysis-- as far as I'm concerned, it's the biggest news of the day . . . and of the week, so far! - promoted by The Caped Composer)

Just as we were starting to give up on the Pine Tree State, a new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Republican Susan Collins' lead shrinking (5/14 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (42) 
Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)

The poll found that Collins' favorability, while still high, has fallen from since last month, and her unfavorables have risen slightly.  Allen's numbers, by contrast, have remained static.  The most surprising finding here is the fact that Collins has a double-digit lead among men, but leads by only two points among women.  Discuss.

This race may still be an uphill battle, but, let's just say it's akin to climbing Cadillac, more than Katahdin.
The Caped Composer :: ME-Sen: Collins' Lead Shrinks to Seven
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ME-Sen: Collins' Lead Shrinks to Seven | 69 comments
Interesting, I may put this one back on my personal top 12

BOO YAH
another day; ANOTHER GREAT POLL FOR THE GOOD GUYS!!!!!......
Actually,
Tom Allen's support stayed the same, while Collins' went down. Where did it go? Did they become undecided?
it basically says that allen needs to close the deal
an election is basically a job interview; this poll tells us that allen has a REAL chance at getting the job(collins is below the MAGIC 50%;ANY incumbent below 50% is vulnerable); he has an opening, now he has to sell "sell himself" AND GET THE JOB
[ Parent ]
Allen has about 5 months left...
So it's possible. Unless he totally bombs in the debates like Patsy Madrid did going up against Heather Wilson in NM-01 back in 2006.
[ Parent ]
exactly
........
[ Parent ]
Have you seen Collins speak?
Trust me, there is no way Collins will out-debate Allen.  Collins is one of the worst speakers I've ever seen.  She has an annoying, shaky voice and has aweful body language.
[ Parent ]
Heh. I have always thought . . .
. . . that the incredibly talented character actress Yeardley Smith (best known as the voice of Lisa Simpson) could do a pitch-perfect parody of Susan Collins!
[ Parent ]
Indeed
She is a HORRIBLE public speaker, absolutely horrible.  She just sounds weak, doesnt command any attention, and doesnt make me want to listen to her.

I sometimes wonder how these people get elected to the US Senate.  There are so many bad public speakers and it is such a necessary part of the job.

[ Parent ]
Well considering the worst speaker of all-time is not President
I'd say the bar has been lowered considerbly.
[ Parent ]
Is now President I meant

[ Parent ]
Nice
60 seats has to be the goal for us this cycle anything less is a failure. 61 if we wanna get greedy and kick Lieberman's ass out.
Best. Day. Ever.
Seriously when did we last have such good news.
Very nice, but
Collins' 65% approval rating is still really high.  While people in Maine hate the GOP and want Bush gone, the voters there really like her.  Allen's number did not rise because more voters are questioning their support of Collins, but are not yet ready to flip the switch for the Democrat in November.

The difference between Lincoln Chafee in 2006 and this race is that I think Collins' approvals are even higher than Chafee's were.  

If the race continues to tighten further, then we may really have to take notice.  Allen and the DSCC needs to remind voters that Collins was a compliant rubber stamp for Bush until that became unfashionable.  

trust me
the DSCC already has those ads in the hopper.........
[ Parent ]
If she can't crack 50% with 65% approval...
She's in BIG trouble.  Once the voters of ME come to understand her real record I doubt 65% will approve.
[ Parent ]
I think this is a case of having to convince voters
who personally like Collins that they should do what the voters of Rhode Island did in 2006 and oust her.  

I guess my view is that this will be a bit tougher than it was in RI because Collins has built such a strong base of support in Maine over the years.  That the movement is already beginning, is encouraging.  

Let me make this bold statement: if Collins does lose -- which I do think will happen right now -- then just about every incumbent on our radar is going to be tossed.

[ Parent ]
agreed BUT
bush is EVEN MORE unpopular now than in '06; hence, the linkage of bush-to-collins has greater potential to knock her out; and i agree with you on the incumbent thing as well;the DSCC has been VERY selective in going against incumbents;knowing that picking up the open seats will be MUCH easier
[ Parent ]
plus
allen is a credible ALTERNATIVE to collins(this goes back to the job interview notion of elections; an election is basically a job interview, allen's task is to "sell himself" and win the job
[ Parent ]
Reminding me a bit of Chafee
Who actually was a moderate, and well-liked by Rhode Islanders, but they eventually decided they couldn't continue to have him go to Washington and vote for a Republican to lead the Senate.


John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.
[ Parent ]
I knew this
Wasn't going to be an easy race, but I thought all the people who were counting Allen out were being extremely pre-mature. By all accounts he's run a very good race, focusing on building up an infrastrucutre in the 2nd district.

We're 5 months away from the election and I like where Allen stands.

agreed
politics is about timing; you want to PEAK the day of the election;NOT the week before OR the WEEK after........
[ Parent ]
Exactly...
ANY race that is within 10 points today, is winanable by November. That's not to say that it WILL, but just that is CAN be won.

I too think this will be a little harder than beating Chafee, but still winnable in a wave election.  

[ Parent ]
exactly
good post
[ Parent ]
Interesting: Chafee had very high approval right before losing
Out of curiousity, I just checked the Rasmussen archives for their last poll of the Rhode Island Senate race in 2006.  

In Rasmussen's October 24, 2006 poll (where Chafee was down 50-42; he ultimately lost 53-47), Chafee maintained a 60% approval rating.  

This is very interesting for this race.  While Rhode Island is more liberal than Maine, I think that Chafee's case well demonstrates that voters can be persuaded to oust a sitting Senator even if they really like him/her.  Chafee had a very high approval rating and still lost by six percent.

If this case is applicable in ME-Sen 2008, we need to keep chipping away at Collins' high approvals just as we did so effectively with Chafee.  

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

I liked Chaffee
I really kinda did. THe argument that worked for me was control of the Senate. Chaffee loses, then there's a chance democrats take control. Chaffee stays, I get a good guy, but Republicans continue to write the agenda. It's one of those, which is the greater good kinda things.

That's why I would have voted for Whitehouse even though I liked Chaffee IF I lived in Rhode Island.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I almost endorsed Chafee
It was sad to see him go.

And how often do you think I can say that for a Republican these days?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's Chafee's own fault
He could have switched parties years ago and een re-elected easily as a democrat.  For whatever reason he stayed in a party that despised him and it led to his defeat.  

I wouldn't be shocked to see Chafee make a comeback as an Independent or Democrat one day.

[ Parent ]
I agree
Prior to 2006, he could have switched parties, easily been re-elected, and probably gotten a committee chairmanship out of the deal.  And, it's been widely reported that his father seriously considered becoming a Democrat while he was in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
The reason . . .
. . . he stayed in the GOP, according to what he subsequently told the press, is that it enabled him to fund state projects (roads, bridges, etc.) with federal money from the Bush administration.  Chafee saw the way Bush punished Jim Jeffords in 2001, by taking away the funding for agricultural projects in Vermont.  Chafee did not want the same thing to happen in his home state.

I'm sure that, on a personal level, Chafee also found it difficult to leave the GOP because his family had been part of it for so long.  It was his heritage. The fact that he ultimately did declare himself as an Independent was a bit surprising, since Republicanism-- albeit the old, Nelson Rockefeller type, not the post-1994 Gingrichian theocon variety-- was in his blood.

[ Parent ]
Isn't Chafee considered a top contender for an upcoming governor's race or something?
It'd be pretty awesome if he were the independent that beat out both parties.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's an Effective Argument
It's an effective argument that has been made many times before.  I followed the Coburn-Carson election in 2004 quite extensively, and this was one of the arguments that the right effectively made against Carson.  
[ Parent ]
Whoops
Made the same observation responding to a comment above you well after you made this one.  My fault for not reading the thread all the way down, sorry.

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.
[ Parent ]
Maine
I've always thought this race would get closer. It's definitely right up there with Oregon, Mississippi, and Minnesota as slightly lean Republican races that could easily all go Democratic if things go right for us this November. And Allen has a huge amount of campaign money that I don't think he has started using quite yet.
I really am wondering . . .
. . . why Collins is doing better among men than among women.  That is very atypical for a female candidate.  I've had a hard time understanding Collins' popularity in the first place; the only conclusion I can come to is that she has positioned herself as Snowe's "Mini-Me," co-opting a sliver of the extreme popularity of Maine's senior Senator.  Any thoughts?  
Correct me if I'm wrong
But I think a lot of moderate-left females are apprehensive to vote against a female candidate even if the male candidate is more in-line with their beliefs and values because their are so few females in statewide office.

People from Maine may not feel that way because regardless of the result of this election Maine will still ahve a female US Senator.

[ Parent ]
I think that's true of many underrepresented groups
Be they African-American, Hispanic, Women, etc.  It makes sense to me that voters in these groups would be more inclined to vote for "their own" in order to break the white male structures that still dominate politics.
[ Parent ]
Yeah . . .
. . . So . . . if that's the case, why is this the exception? Why aren't women supporting Collins?  Is it because the state already has a female Senator?  Or is it the proverbial "soccer-mom vote," responding to the Iraq issue?  A bit of both?

[ Parent ]
Well I think regions play a role
If I'm not mistaken the more progressive northeast tends to have more women elected at most levels of government than other regions of the U.S., especially the southeast.  I know I read that in an article somewhere.  Maybe they feel they already are well represented and therefore just vote for the candidate that best represents their interest.  
[ Parent ]
You are mistaken...
The Northeast does not -- I repeat -- does not -- have more women elected at most levels of government than other regions... we have seen some very recent breakthroughs, but before 2006, there were very few women in office, and those there were tended to be Republicans, ironically in such a "liberal" region.  Hillary Clinton is the exception, not the rule, which tends to explain why she had so much support in some states in the Northeast that tended to truly have a glass ceiling.  Women have historically done much better in the Pacific Northwest, and even some regions of the midwest (including the Bible Belt).
[ Parent ]
Hmmmm
I remember seeing a map that showed parts of the Northeast (New Hampshire particularly) being a region that has more women in office than other regions.  But, I think it was really only like 2-3 states in that region that are rockstars.
[ Parent ]
Couldn't have been New Hampshire...
might have been Maine or Connecticut.

New Hampshire has only had Kelly Ayotte, the embarassing Attorney General, but that's an appointed position, not elected.  Before that, there was Jeanne Shaheen, but she hasn't been governor since 2002/3.  Carol Shea-Porter was just elected in the wave in 2006, as I mentioned.

Connecticut has Republican governor M. Jodi Rell, but she's where she is now, because she was John Rowland's Lt. Gov. and he resigned to serve a prison term.  She didn't actually get elected to serve a full term until 2006, although she did win by a healthy margin.

[ Parent ]
State Legislature
That is where I know there are ton of women in New Hampshire.  If I remember correctly, like 36% of the state legislature is women.  (I remember looking at map and seeing Minnesota in 2nd and being like damn, who beat us.  New Hampshire, they're hardly even a blue state! was my inner monologue)

Here we go

http://www.ncsl.org/programs/w...

It's from 2005 so doesnt account for 2006.

[ Parent ]
State legislature is good and all...
... but I think it's time we elected women to federal and statewide positions.  Right now women account for only 16% of both houses of Congress, and only 18% of the governorships.  And unless Beverly Perdue wins the governorship in North Carolina, Jill Long Thompson wins in Indiana, or Gaye Symington wins in neighboring Vermont (none of which will be all that easy), the 9 out of 50 we currently have will go down to a mere 8 out of 50.

State legislatures are barely a stepping stone in most states, and since New Hampshire has simply such a huge number in their state legislature to begin with, and only a few federal and statewide offices to move up to, other states are a much better example of where we really are and how far away we are from propelling women to higher office.  Especially in the "liberal" Northeast.

[ Parent ]
which state is losing a woman gov?
i know we lost blanco last cycle(she didn't choose to run)AND color me crazy but i think we have a pretty decent chance in all 3 races you named(though clearly competitive it will be tough)
[ Parent ]
Delaware - Ruth Ann Minner
She is term-limited and that is an open race.
[ Parent ]
Well, ChadinFL has answered your question...
... but let's hope you are right about at least one of the three races (if not actually winning 2 and moving up to an unprecedented and historic 10 women governors - 20% for the first time ever).

Ironically, I think the one state we might actually have the hardest shot of winning the governor's race in this November is Vermont, which, with Massachusetts, I think qualifies as one of the two most Democratic states in the nation.  If nothing else, I'd like to finally see some polling for the race!!!

[ Parent ]
Perdue will pull it out
I'm sure it will be a somewhat close race in NC, but the consensus seems to be that Perdue has the edge.  Democrats do still dominate NC at the state and local level unlike most states in the southeast.

Indiana I wouldn't hold my breath on.  We have a decent shot but I'm not very optimistic on that one.  Daniels seems to have rebounded from a rough first couple of years in office.

In 2010 we're going to see a lot of turnover in Governors, especially in female Governors.  MI, AZ, KS and HI all have term-limited female Governor's that year.  However there are quite a few potentially strong female candidates in both parties who could run that year.  

[ Parent ]
All the more reason to put lots of effort into Indiana
because this is an excellent opportunity to make REALLY DEEP inroads into ruby-red territory.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's not as if Indiana hasn't had Democratic governors before…
and in recent memory as well - electing our current nominee would give us a woman in the top job in the Hoosier State as well... something that, unless they elect House Speaker Gaye Symington along with Thompson, indigo-blue Vermont won't be able to say they've done since 1991, but I keep thinking there's a reason why there hasn't been a single poll on the race almost a month after Symington declared her intention to run.
[ Parent ]
Collins doing better among men
Republicans are generally doing better among men, in contests at all levels. Democrats are doing better among women. The trend holds in this race as well.
[ Parent ]
It's still interesting . . .
. . . because that trend, powerful as it is, doesn't always hold when the gender card enters the equation.  I remember during the 90's, when Christine Todd Whitman won the votes of many New Jersey women who would otherwise vote Democratic, while Carol Moseley-Braun won a large chunk of the female vote in otherwise-conservative downstate Illinois.  Both of those races were notable precisely because gender trumped partisan identification.  The fact that that trend does not apply to this race should tell us . . . something.  I'm not exactly sure what, though.  As you can tell, I am fascinated by the phenomenon.  I wonder how age factors into the equation; I am convinced that age goes hand in hand with gender and with race as far as voting patterns go.  If the poll sampled a large number of young voters, it would make more sense than if it oversampled boomers, who are, by and large, more likely to adhere to identity politics.
[ Parent ]
Collins will win easily.
Tom Allen will win the liberal, Yuppified first district, but he will get crushed in the second district.  He is an arrogant, extremely liberal Yuppie from the South Coast.  Those of us from the second district consider Portland to be Massachusetts North.  I'm betting McCain gets 1 electoral vote out of Maine's second district with Obama on the ballot.  

How well has Tom Allen supported the forest products industry?  Not well at all.  Everyone in the second district now realizes how awful tourism jobs are and how great forest products jobs are.  

Can you imagine the US economy with a 61 seat democratic Senate, Democratic President and Democratic House?  Hello Germany, with double digit unemployment and very low single digit growth as far as the eye can see.

as the ELDER STATESMAN on this blog
i'll leave it to my younger brethren to go after this yahoo..........
[ Parent ]
wrong blog?
First of all, where to start.

1) This is a DEMOCRATIC blog, not a kool-aid-drinking right-wing site like redstate. Even the few republicans (like Kyle) that do appear here may provide realistic views, as well as their own opinions without offending nearly everyone on this site.
2) Nice job demonizing nearly half of the population of your own homestate. If only your words could be printed in Portland, then Allen would get a bigger bump.
3) Maine used to be part of Massachusetts.
4) All polling data shows that, in addition to Obama winning the state by (currently) 22 points, that the 2nd district will stay solidly with Obama. We have a better chance at the Omaha and Lincoln CDs than you do at this. Face it, if you couldn't win it in 2000 or 2004, you will certainly not win it now.
5) 61 seats would be very nice, and i'm assuming that if that were to happen, McConnell's seat would be gone and the Republican Party would finally learn to grow up.
6) Germany's problems largely stem from the integration of Eastern Germany, and if you didn't know, the current Prime Minister Angela Merkel is from the center-right CDP.

please inform yourself in the future.

[ Parent ]
Furthermore
What's wrong with Germany or Western Europe for that matter.  Why the hell wouldnt we want to be like France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, Britain.  Best standard of living is certainly in Western Europe.  I really wish we were more like Western Europe.  ::sigh::
[ Parent ]
Me too.
I really like Spain.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oh yes
That second district that Obama is leading big in? I'm sure McCain will win that.

Can I imagine the US economy with a 61 seat democratic Senate, Democratic President and Democratic House?

Hell yes I can. It would be back to peace and prosperity. Got a problem with that?

[ Parent ]
Hmmm... my first thought was Redstate troll
But he uses punctuation and complete sentences so I'm not sure where he came from.
[ Parent ]
ME a Dem state with female senators
ME is a Dem state, hates the war, hates Bush but has a thing about it female senators.  Just as NH has a bizarre attraction to McCain, ME seems quite attached to its senators.  Make no mistake.  It is NOT another RI!

It will require constant identification of Collins with Bush for Allen to win.  Also it will take LOTS of financial support from the DSCC, lots of media, lots of publicity.

It really is encouraging, especially for those of us who have been contributing monthly since '07, finally to see some movement here after so many months of a static situation.  Collins is a high-profile senator, esp for ME tho she hasn't done so well with Homeland Security.  If Allen is to win, it will require a constant, every-day reminder to Maineiacs that Collins has on the whole been a loyal Bush soldier.

Is it doable?  Dunno, but it's worth the effort--AND money!  Without a pick-up here, reaching 60 or 61 will be extremely difficult.

schumer has committed
the money will be there
[ Parent ]
Yes, he's committed
Though Allen is doing a great job fundraising in his own right. We may not have to dump too much into ME to help Allen.
[ Parent ]
Bout damn time
Finally.  Really.  Some vindication on a race so many have been pesimistic on and I just hadn't quite given up yet.
I never gave up on Allen, or Franken
Everyone seems nearly giddy to throw these races to the R-Incumbent when talking about their senate rankings.  It's depressing.  
Indeed, you don't give up on a good candidate like Allen...
...no matter how bad the polls look this far out.

But I do take issue with your "nearly giddy" characterization. I sense a lot more frustration than giddiness from commenters on MN-Sen.

[ Parent ]
Andrew from MN has declared Franken a goner twice
Once on Senateguru over the playboy article, and once IIRC on SSP over the tax issue.  Why be so insistant that he's going to lose?  It's sad really.  That's who I was thinking of when I wrote that.  

And someone dropped Maine all the way to 13 on their June cattle call.  It's ridiculous.  

[ Parent ]
Franken
Well, I still am pessimistic on the race.  Quite a bit so.  But, the one reason why I ranked Franken as 5th is because Obama is going to blow McCain out of the water here and will bring Franken over the finish line easily.  Coattails are going to go a long way.  I dont think Franken couldve won on his own and I still think the Republicans will do a number on him in the last leg of the race.

But that last poll basically made me look dumb and wrong, which is fine, we all learn.  I really thought the rape joke was going to make a lot more traction than it did but once Franken won the endorsement, all the other stuff faded into the background.

I still dont think Franken is qualified to be a US Senator nor do I think was he our best choice.  However, he is still a pretty good choice, has been running a very great campaign (minus all the bs that's been going on) and I'll certainly bust my ass to help him win.  

If Ventura jumps into the race (Im starting to think he might), then this race will be completely screwed.  I dont really know Ventura's popularity in the state (I only lived here for like 1.5 years during his term and was like 13) but the Independence Party usually destroys any hopes of DFL gains statewide if they are credible, good challengers.  ::sigh::  

[ Parent ]
only speaking for myself
i'm never giddy when a repub wins re-election; i'm usually pretty damn mad;especially when the race is winnable for the good guys, which both of those races are
[ Parent ]
It's the economy
I was looking at the Portland (Maine, not Oregon) paper on the net last week and was stunned by how bad things seem to be in Maine.  There was a long article about people cutting back on their food budget to pay for the increase in gas prices. The secret "solution" seemed to be a huge rise in dependence on home gardens.  (At best, that will not help outside the summer and early fall.) There was another article about a paper mill closing.  The general consensus seemed to be that the state was in the worst shape it had beeen in since the Reagan depression of the early 80s.

Maine is not a rich state, at least if the cost of heating and gasoline enters the equation.  What is Susan Collins doing to force some positive change out of George W. Bush.  Not only is Bush a natural villain but the combination of two "oil men" could be devastating come the fall.  If gas prices don't drop by election day, the prospects for a very pricey winter heating bill are very good.  Again, Collins may be "a nice lady" but what is she doing to solve the problem or at least ameliorate things.

Collins has become an enabler of failed policies that are choking the life blood out of Maine.  (Gas prices can't be good for tourism, either).  This one is winnable.    

ME-Sen: Collins' Lead Shrinks to Seven | 69 comments

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