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June Senate Cattle Call

by: James L.

Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 8:35 PM EDT


It's been a few months since we've done one of these, so let's see what we come up with this time around. You know the drill: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping.

Have at it!
James L. :: June Senate Cattle Call
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June Senate Cattle Call | 85 comments
Newest House Member
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Mississippi
8. Maine
9. Oregon
10. Minnesota
11. Kentucky
12. Louisiana
13. Kansas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Texas

Some of these like 6-11 are dependent on receiving financial support.

Reminder, Donna Edwards gets elected tonight.

Thanks for the reminder
yay Donna!
[ Parent ]
june
1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  New Hampshire
4.  Colorado
5.  Alaska
6.  Oregon
7.  Mississippi-B
8.  North Carolina
9.  Minnesota
10. Kentucky
11. Louisiana
12. Maine
13. Kansas
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. New Jersey
17. Nebraska
18. Idaho
19. Georgia
20. ?
My raitings
Likely Democrat pick up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico

Leans Democrat pick up
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire

Toss up
5) Alaska
6) Mississippi-B

Leans Republican
7) Minnesota
8) Oregon
9) North Carolina
11) Maine
12) Kansas
13) Oklahoma

Leans Democrat retention
10) Louisiana
 

Net pickup: 8-9
Virginia
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Colorado
Alaska
Minnesota
Mississippi
Louisiana
North Carolina
Oregon
Maine
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Idaho
Nebraska
Kansas
Georgia

North Carolina over Oregon was the only really fun call, and I went with it because Dole is a first termer who hasn't established herself in the state (contra Smith), North Carolina is a big state (contra Oregon -- I have a theory that small states are more apt to tolerate off-party Senators than big states), and Obama's turnout boost in NC is straight-ticket-voting AAs, whereas in Oregon his turnout boost is in indie/greens who are going to split more of their tickets for Smith than AAs would.

If Obama wins by a big enough margin, then we wash em both away.  Much depends on the presidential campaign.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

I forgot Texas (how ironic).
Put it where Idaho is, and then put Idaho beneath Nebraska.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
I'm waiting for a poll.
I don't think Idaho will be a pick up, but I am waiting for a poll to see if it might be.
[ Parent ]
There are a few far-right 3rd party candidates running in Idaho
They could siphon off quite a few votes from Risch.  LaRocco has run a very efficient campaign and I could definately see that race narrow when we get towards November just like the Idaho Governor's race did in 2006.
[ Parent ]
do you happen to know
if the edwards race is the only one today? are there any other primary's today?
It's the only one.
Results here.

With 25% in, Edwards is crushing James by 93%-6%. Ouch.

[ Parent ]
thanks
............
[ Parent ]
17 Seats I see as being at least somewhat "in play"
Likely D
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
Lean D
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
Tossup
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Mississippi-B
Lean R
9. Louisiana (Dem Seat)
10. North Carolina
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
Likely R
13. Kansas
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Idaho

Likely Range of Net Gain: 5-9 Seats

For Louisiana...
I obviously meant that the race is Lean Dem not Lean R
[ Parent ]
Here's My Picks
From Most Likely to get elected (top) to Least Likely (bottom):

1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico
3.  Colorado
4.  New Hampshire
5.  Mississippi
6.  Alaska
7.  Minnesota
8.  Oregon
9.  North Carolina
10. Kentucky
11. Oklahoma
12. Georgia (Saxby's firewall)

The last one is a bit of a joke, but since it came from the mouth of NRSC Chair John Ensign that Georgia's the firewall, I thought I'd obliged him.

Hey, it's the middle of the year, time to dream big.

Don't laugh at Georgia
If Jim Martin manages to get the nomination it could be a real race.  That's a BIG if though since the polls I've seen having him way behind in the primary.

Also Obama is thinking of making a play at Georgia which could turn up black turnout.

[ Parent ]
DSCC
The DSCC really needs to just step-in and win that primary for him.  It probably wont result in a Senate seat but who the hell really knows what may happen this year, look at Alaska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, Maine is getting there.  If Georgia somehow gets competitive on its own, that is just ANOTHER seat the NRSC will have to defend that will not allow them to spend money elsewhere.

Honestly, just cut a tv ad for him and that's all.

[ Parent ]
good post
i agree with you completely here(i think the dscc's current game plan for georgia ONLY plays out if martin is the nominee; without martin, i think the dscc pulls out of GA completely)
[ Parent ]
MAINE
in my opinion, maine should at least rate a spot SOMEWHERE on your list(just a thought)
[ Parent ]
First time poster
I just want to say I really enjoy the blog, it's an excellent resource on federal elections no matter what your persuasion.

DEM FAVORED

New Jersey (D)
Virginia (R)

LEANS DEM

Louisiana (D)
New Mexico (R)
New Hampshire (R)

TOSSUP

Colorado (R)
Alaska (R)
Minnesota (R)

LEANS REP

Oregon (R)
Mississippi-S (R)
North Carolina (R)

REP FAVORED

Maine (R)
Kentucky (R)
Texas (R)

RACES TO WATCH

Idaho (R)
Kansas (R)
Massachusetts (lol)

The Line:

1. Virginia/R
2. New Mexico/R
3. New Hampshire/R
4. Colorado/R
5. Alaska/R
6. Minnesota/R
7. Louisiana/D
8. Oregon/R
9. North Carolina/R
10. Mississippi-S/R

Poor Mary, she's going to be on these lists all year. And she'll probably pull it out too.

Welcome!
Excellent thread for a first post  :)
[ Parent ]
celtics 24 lakers 20
end of first
I don't like either team
But I hate the Lakers more, so I have to root for Boston.  Plus Pierce, KG and Ray Allen are long overdue a ring.

I'm an Orlando Magic fan, so ya, I'll be waiting awhile for a championship.  We do have Dwight Howard.  If only we had three more of him we'd win it all...

[ Parent ]
I miss KG
He is what made the Timberwolves.  Every single one of our teams suck now  :(   I dont even like sports, it interferes with my homosexuality, but god, I'm jealous of other states sometimes...  lol  
[ Parent ]
A dozen or more
Safe Democratic
24) Louisiana

Likely Democratic pick-up
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) Colorado
4) New Hampshire
5) Mississippi-B
6) Alaska

Leans Democrat pick-up
7) Oregon

Toss-up
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Kentucky

Leans Repub
11) Texas
12) Maine
13) Idaho
14) Oklahoma
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska

Likely Repub
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Mississippi-A
Wyoming
Alabama
Wyoming

I'm trying to be conservative here. Actually, I expect that most of my "Leans Repub" races will be competitive by November, more correctly Toss-ups. One or two of the "Likely Repub" races could also become competitive, or "Leans Repub" in November. Then in the wave election, the Democrats will sweep almost all -- but not all -- of the competitive contests, winning 12 to 14 seats. So I'm not entirely ruling out a Democratic win (by one of the candidates whose names I can't even recall at this point) in Georgia, Tennessee, or South Carolina, depending on the depth of the Obama tsunami when it hits the Southern shores. Seriously. This will be a transformative election, a map-changing election, and an utter and complete repudiation of the Repub party.

thank you
I'm glad someone out there is as optimistic as I am.  I sometimes tone it down because I dont like being the only one out there, especially since I'm only 21 and havent really been blogging so much.

Now when I do my cattle call, I'll certainly be a bit more honest with mine.  :)

[ Parent ]
Together, like May and Dec --, well, November
Working together we can do this. I'm gonna be 64 too soon, you are 18. Damn, we're older than McCain. And wiser, with better judgment. (I admit to a tendency to temper tantrums, but I've been taking my meds.)

In 1980, Jimmy Carter was the incumbent Democratic President. Carter was challenged for the nomination of his own party by Teddy Kennedy, then defeated for re-election by Saint Ronnie. In that year, the Repubs picked up 12 additional Senate seats.

In 1958, the Repubs had been in power for 6 years. Eisenhower was the incumbent, and though he was personally well liked, his party's popularity was suffering from second term fatigue. With the economy in recession, the Democrats picked up 13 Senate seats.

In 1932, well, I'm not gonna report on that election, because, old as I am, that was before my time.

In 2008, it should not be too damn hard to equal -- or exceed -- the results in 1980 or 1958. Clearly the country wants change, and by golly, we're gonna get change, in the White House and in the Senate!

Andrew, did your Grandmother tell you about Wave Elections? If you believe in Wave Elections, and she told you what they look like, then you'll recognize that this is gonna be a Wave Election. We'll get a dozen or so seats. Take it from your Granny -- and me.

[ Parent ]
hahahaha
One of my grandmothers voted for Bush because he was a good Christian man and other one still calls black people colored...  I dont bother asking them about politics, lol.

But that is what I have been thinking.  If such huge Senate waves can happen, why not this time?  This year certainly fits that mold.

[ Parent ]
My grandma was
My grandma lived in the Texas Hill Country, where she was a friend of LBJ's mother, and my father grew up a friend of LBJ. So I was involved in Democratic politics prenatally. You're doing pretty good for a self-taught political orphan child. ;-)

One fun thing about watching a Wave swelling is to read the other comments here and similar blogs. New polls report "unexpectedly" close results in Alaska or North Carolina or Maine. Well, no, I was expecting exactly such reports on various candidates from several states. And I'm looking forward to more such news from now until November.

[ Parent ]
My parents
are Republicans too and we used to live in Texas and before I knew any better, I rooted for Bush!  Sometimes I'm really glad I'm gay, it certainly was the major starting pointing of being a Democrat.  I had always been liberal but I could see myself being a more libertarian Republican.  Homosexuality can be a life saver!  :)  And now I'm influencing my parents to be Democrats, yay!
[ Parent ]
Here's another ex-Dark Sider!
9/11 happened when I was starting to become politically aware. For the following year I supported Bush and called myself a Republican. Fortunately, before the midterms, I came to my senses when I became more aware of the far-right positions of the party and found they were very incompatible with my solidly left social views, my center-left economic views, and my great concern for the environment.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
The Current Cattle Call Predictions for US Senate...
SOLID TAKEOVER
1.  Virginia (stays at #1 since Warner stated he's all in)
LIKELY TAKEOVER
2.  New Mexico (thankfully Udall ran!)
LEAN TAKEOVER
3.  Colorado (open race is easier to win than incumbent)
4.  New Hampshire (incubments are harder to beat)
TOSS-UPS
5.  Alaska (corruption is tough to overcome)
6.  Mississippi-B (Musgrove w/statewide ID, but red state)
LEAN RETENTION
7.  Oregon (blue state, Obama coattails, Merkley win?)
8.  North Carolina (Hagan w/Obama to make a run at it)
9.  Louisiana (Landrieu has $$$ and seniority + Obama)
10. Minnesota (Franken is going, going, not yet gone...)
LIKELY RETENTION
11. Maine (Collins still showing strong double digits)
12. Kentucky (McConnell polls are getting our hopes us)
13. New Jersey (Just to be fair to add another DEM seat)
14. Nebraska (If DEMs win this seat, total blowout wave)
15. Idaho (only because LaRocco is a great candidate)
SOLID RETENTION
10 Democrats
10 Republicans

DEMs take the Solid, Likely, & Lean takeover seats, that's a DEM+4 there. I'll take 1 of 2 tossup races, and 1 of 4 Lean races, making it DEM+6:

111th Congress - US Senate
55 Democrats (DEM+6)
2 Independents (IND+0)
43 Republicans (GOP-6)
57-43 Democratic Working Majority (if Lieberman = DEM)

On a side note...
111th Congress - US House of Representatives
248 Democrats (DEM+12)
187 Republicans (GOP-12)

KELL

You know, it's times like this I feel really bad for rank-and-file Republicans

Of course then I remember that they gave us George Bush and I get over it :D:

 Anyways, here's where I think things stand



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

I've yet to do one of these
So, why not.

Likely Democrat:
1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico

Leans Democrat:
3.  New Hampshire
4.  Colorado
5.  Louisiana

Toss Up:
6.  Alaska
7.  Mississippi-B

Leans Republican:
8.  Oregon
9.  Minnesota
10. Kentucky
11. North Carolina

Likely Republican:
12. Texas
13. Nebraska
14. Kansas, Idaho, Okalhoma

Hell or High Water:
Montana
Wyoming A/B
South Dakota
Iowa
Illinois
Arkansas
Michigan
Tennessee
W. Virginia
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
Delaware
New Jersey
Massechusetts
Rhode Island

I know, I'm more conservative than most people on this site. I base mine on polls right now. I've yet to see a poll that has Frankin ahead, or Merkley ahead. And I want to wait until after the primary for Alaska, just to be sure. Polls for both Alaska and Mississippi-B have had both up and down, to me, that's toss up. I see us gaining at least 5 seats, probably more as time progresses. I just don't see how Alaska or Mississippi are 'leans' when Republicans have all the advantages, not to mention, very red states. Not impossible, but still, very much toss ups.

celtics 58 lakers 35
END OF FIRST HALF; THIS GAME IS OVER FOLKS!!!!
Ya
I absolutely do not want Dr. Phil and Kobe to have another ring.  Plus it will be nice seeing KG, Allen and Pierce finally hoist the trophy.
[ Parent ]
agreed
KG had a terrible game 5; he is on FIRE tonight
[ Parent ]
Don't ya love how the slightest ripple in history...
can change the course of history so completely?  Celtics were the worst team in the NBA last year and the best shot at getting the #1 draft pick.  Boston has horrendous draft luck drawing the 5th pick.  Had they drawn the 1st or 2nd pick they would have drafted Oden or Durant and rebuilt their teams arouund one of those guys.  But due to the luck of the draw they ship off their #5 pick, some other draft picks, and a few players in return for Garnett and Ray Allen who lead them to an NBA championship.  Too crazy to believe.
[ Parent ]
agreed
but i like the fact that danny ainge had the balls to make all those moves(if it doesn't work, he's fired, in my opinion)
[ Parent ]
Former NBA players seem to be either big hits or total busts
when it comes to running teams post-retirement.  

Joe Dumars - probably the best GM in the league
Kevin McHale - Horrible tenure with Minnesota
Elgin Baylor - Disasterous tenure with Clippers
Michael Jordan - Very bad tenure with Washington
Isiah Thomas - Destroyed every team he's ever had anything to do with.  Oh, and he's the only man in America who still has a job despite costing his organization $15 million in a sexual harrassment suit.

[ Parent ]
dumars
is clearly the best AND don't forget thomas bankrupted an entire LEAGUE(cba)!!
[ Parent ]
Oh ya...
And because of these events happening Danny Ainge went from being considered one of the worst GM's in the league to being considered a genius for the moves he made.
[ Parent ]
I wonder what Chuck's cattle call would look like...
Here's mine:
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Mississippi
7) North Carolina
8) Minnesota
9) Oregon
10) Louisiana
11) Maine
12) Kentucky
13) Idaho
14) Texas
15) Kansas
16) Nebraska
17) Oklahoma
the DSCC sent me an e-mail update today
with just the info you ask for here; i will post EXACTLY what the dscc is thinking as of today after the end of the basketball game(i think their thinking may surprise a few folks here)
[ Parent ]
Mucho gracias ahead of time!
Go Celtics!
[ Parent ]
your welcome
and the fat lady is warming up; put a fork in the lakers, they are done...........
[ Parent ]
i posted down thread
.........
[ Parent ]
June
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi
7. Minnesota
8. Oregon
9. Louisiana
10. Maine
11. Texas
Happy Days Are Here Again
The most likely scenario: Big wins in Virginia and New Mexico, smaller but significant wins in Colorado and New Hampshire, nail-biters in the toss-up category. I think we'll pick up VA, NM, CO, NH, AK and two more in the toss-up category for a 55 D - 43 R - 2 I (Sanders and Lieberman) composition in the 111th Congress.

Likely Dem/Solid Dem
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico

Lean Dem
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire

Toss-Up
5. Alaska
6. North Carolina
7. Mississippi-B (Roger Wicker)
8. Oregon
9. Minnesota

Lean Incumbent Retention
10. Louisiana
11. Kentucky

Likely Incumbent (or Incumbent Party) Retention
12. New Jersey
13. Maine
14. Kansas
15. Idaho (OPEN)
16. Nebraska (OPEN)
17. Oklahoma (OPEN)

Uncompetitive:
Mississippi-A (Thad Cochran)
Georgia
Wyoming-A (Mike Enzi)
Wyoming-B (John Barrasso)
Montana
Iowa
Rhode Island
Delaware
Massachusetts
Arkansas
South Dakota
Illinois
Michigan
West Virginia  

for what it's worth; the DSCC sent me an e-mail update today
on the current state of the senate races from their standpoint; first of all; i think they feel like BOTH landrieu and lautenberg are completely SAFE seats this cycle and the repubs don't have the resources to TRULY challenge them with a high probability of success;ALL other incumbent senators are SAFE and they don't feel the republicans will try to put any REAL fight against them; with that out of the way; they have basically a two-tier approach in mind; i'm going to post the second tier first(i apologize if that is confusing); they have plans to contest ALL of these second tier seats in varying degrees(this will obviously be adjusted as their(dscc internals which are NEVER released publicly)polls indicate potential openings); the second tier are these(in no particular order of importance):GA, KN, NE, OK, TX; clearly, they think one or more of these 5 seats MAY come into play, so they don't want to have dropped the ball in any of them; now for the first tier; their first tier consists of 11 seats in which they feel ALL are potential wins and they will fund ALL 11 accordingly WITH the caveat that they believe VA and NM(and to a lesser degree NH and CO)are already in the bag and won't require much assistance; i think you can SAFELY say they feel confident in winning ALL 4 of these seats(don't misread that as saying they won't spend money on those 4 becuase they will BUT they know the repubs resources are limited and thus our spending will be adjusted as we go;for instance, the dscc believes that john ensign(chuck schumer's repub counterpart)has ALREADY abandoned pearce in NM as a lost cause(my take on this is they felt like wilson could have put up something of a fight for that seat had she won the primary); that leaves us with the 7 REAL battleground senate seat targets; those 7 are(here again in NO particular order;but, i will list them in the order of the e-mail BUT that does NOT mean the dscc targets them as such); AK; KY; ME; MN; MS-B; NC; OR; one other observation i would like to make is this; the DSCC feels like mcconnell is CLEARLY on the ropes in kentucky and that lunsford can knock him out(i have stated before on this site that of all the GREAT candidates that schumer has recruited this cycle that lunsford is by far my LEAST favorite;however, as my friend CHADinFL says, a turd sandwich would be better than mcconnell and I AGREE with him); one last observation about idaho(where we have a terrific senate candidate);even though idaho was not mentioned in the e-mail as a target i believe that it MIGHT become one; over the weekend, at the idaho republican convention there was a REVOLT against the republican governor(butch otter) and his chosen candidate for state party chairman(who was BADLY beaten in a race that was not close);needless to say, idaho republicans are in a sorry state of mind that can be exploited, add to that the fact that there is a serious independent challenge to jim risch from the right and you have the makings of a perfect storm which MAY put larocco in the U.S. SENATE(from idaho!!!!)(i believe idaho was not mentioned in the dscc e-mail because these events in idaho are just taking place); oh well; that's my 2 cents(sorry for the long post); i look forward to any responses;OH, AND THE CELTICS WON.................
GA really surprised me on that list...
I wonder what their internal polling shows.  I guess with Barack's coattails and getting out the African-American vote, I can see why they think they have a shot at it.  Nothing would be better than to watch that dirtbag Chambliss get ousted!

- Yea, the fact that Lunsford isn't exactly the most progressive guy should help him in KY.  

- I really hope LaRocco put up some strong fundraising numbers this cycle and really garner the attention of the DSCC.  He's one of my favourite candidates this year no matter the odds.

- I'm also glad to see Andrew Rice and Scott Kleeb get the attention they deserve.  Man, we really have some good candidates this year.

- I suppose they think Allen will really turn things around as we get closer to November to put him on the tier 1 level.  I hope they're right.  

[ Parent ]
georgia
i think you nailed the GA situation squarely; chambliss(who has NEVER been popular in georgia, just tolerated)will be difficult to beat but not impossible;clearly, they are taking obama's campaigning to play a factor as a piece of the puzzle;also, though they did not spell it out; i believe their thinking was MARTIN has to be the nominee if the dems have any CHANCE for success; as for your other observations, i agree with those on all counts
[ Parent ]
Senate rankings
1.   Virginia
2.   New Mexico
3.   Colorado
4.   New Hampshire
5.   Alaska
6.   Oregon
7.   Louisiana
8.   Mississippi
9.   Minnesota
10.  North Carolina
11.  Maine
12.  Kentucky
13.  Kansas
14.  Oklahoma  

Overall Democratic gain of 5-8.

The top 13
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Louisana
7. Oregon
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi
10. Maine
11. Kentucky
12. New Jersey
13. North Carolina  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
Well well well
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. New Hampshire
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi-B
7. Minnesota
8. North Carolina
9. Jeff Merkley
10. Louisiana
11. Maine
12. Kentucky
13. Kansas
14. Oklahoma
15. Nebraska
16. Idaho

Idaho is almost ready to drop off the list.  I need to see the next wave of fundraising first.  Colorado is ahead of New Hampshire because Obama coattails will be stronger in Colorado, Udall is fundraising better than Shaheen, and Shaffer is significantly weaker a candidate than Sununu.  

the dscc currently believes
that GA and TX are better opportunities for dems than idaho
[ Parent ]
Disappointed
I was very disappointed to see Idaho omitted from the DSCC email. I wondered if they just lost count and let it slip between the cracks or what.

The way I see Idaho, Larry LaRocco is on a roll. Or rather, the Idaho Repubs are on a roll -- downhill all the way. I mean, what a run of luck for our man Larry LaRocco: All the trends and all the events have been going in his favor. Bush's approval ratings tanking. Economy tanking. Democratic self-identification rising. Generic Democratic preferences rising in the polls. LaRocco starts running for the office and his opponent is moved to take a wide stance, leading to his decision to resign, not resign, and finally not to run for re-election. More recently his Repub establishment anointed opponent, Risch, provokes a rich and contrary Repub independent to announce his candidacy declaring that he has done the math and that Risch cannot win with him in the race. The more I ponder the matter, the more I tend to believe the ole crank, that Risch cannot win with him in the race.

So can I go upthread and amend my rankings and move Idaho into the Toss up category? To win this thing, all LaRocco has to do is keep on keeping on while God continues to smite his opposition, and he can do that.  

[ Parent ]
i agree with you
but; i think the next update WILL have idaho coming on board; where i posted upthread, i gave a detailed explanation as to why i think that will come into play(at least draw attention that grows into something real); like ALL things political, the DSCC moves deliberately(my nice way of saying that they move SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWLY)BUT i trust chuck schumer(and his crew to do the right thing); so, i say let's see how it plays out; with the republican turmoil taking place in idaho at this time, i think we may turn out to be pleasantly surprised
[ Parent ]
Rankings
1) VA
2) NM
3) CO
4) NH

5) AK
6) OR
7) MN
8) ME
9) MS (Wicker)

10) NE
11) NC
12) TX
13) KS
14) OK

15) ID
16) KY

17) GA (if Martin is our nominee)

Let's Do This Thing
I'm not even going to get into distinctions between Likely and Lean - I'm not sure I can tell the difference these days.  But I am going to write out the names, to try to will their senatorships into existence.  So here goes:

Tier I:
1)  Virgina... Senator Mark Warner!
2)  New Mexico... Senator Tom Udall!

Tier II:
3)  New Hampshire... Senator Jeanne Shaheen!
4)  Colorado... Senator Mark Udall!
5)  Alaska... Senator Mark Begich!
6)  Oregon... Senator Jeff Merkley!
7)  Mississippi... Senator Ronnie Musgrove!
8)  Kentucky... Senator Bruce Lunsford (I can't quite bring myself to put the exclamation point here, but if he can win, rock on)

Tier III:
9)  Minnesota... Senator Al Franken!
10) North Carolina... Senator Kay Hagan!
11) Texas... Senator Rick Noriega!
12) Maine... Senator Tom Allen!
13) Louisiana (figured I'd throw this in here somewhere; this seems about right)
14) Kansas... Senator Jim Slattery!

Tier IV:
15) Idaho... Senator Larry LaRocco!
16) Nebraska... Senator Scott Kleeb!
17) Ohio... Senator Tim Ryan!  Because with poll numbers as good as his, he might has well get into the fourth tier already.

15A) Oklahoma... Senator Andrew Rice!
Knew I forgot someone.  Let's put Andrew Rice's Oklahoma seat race as 15A, between Idaho and Nebraska.
[ Parent ]
Maine, what are you thinking?
I ranked 8 RED states--including Kansas--higher than Maine (plus others that are swing states). What do solid blue Mainers see in Susan Collins?  Whatever it is, it isn't really there. Collins is on track to join Snowe in surviving these two consecutive Democratic wave elections. This easily could be the one seat the prevents a 60- or 61-seat majority (accounting for Lieberman).

1. VA
2. NM
3. CO
4. NH
5. AK
6. MN
7. OR
8. NC
9. MS-B
10. KY
11. LA
12. KS
13. ME - This is ridiculous.
14. TX
15. NJ
16. NE
17. ID
18. GA

I disagree about Maine
The polls have certainly started tightening in Maine, from like 25% margin to I think the last one I saw being 10%.  That is quite some movement.

Obama is going to rock the shit out of Maine, let's just put it frankly.  ElectionProjection.com (run by a bible thumpin Republican but is an excellent, if not the best resource for polls) has Obama winning Maine by 15%.  Kerry only won Maine by 8%, Obama is going to double that margin.

I can certainly see some Obama/Collins ticket splitting but not enough to matter.  The DSCC is also going to rock the shit out of Maine, lol.  Plus, Collins is a big tool.

It'll be close but I'm confident.  This election is going to be huge.  Thank God Hillary isn't the nominee, this is all going to happen courtesy of Obama.  

[ Parent ]
Agree, but still wondering...
I agree about the Obama and DSCC factors, so maybe we'll turn it around in the next 5 months. I would just really hate to have the bluest state with a competitive Senate race not come through when all these red states are going to elect Dems to the Senate. Snowe's 74% victory in the 2006 Democratic wave (although against a mediocre candidate) also makes me skeptical. Tom Allen declared much earlier than most other challengers this cycle, and it took him a long time to make any headway. Oregon and Minnesota are in a similar situation, with faux moderates running left of their records in blue states and challengers trailing by double digits (single in some polls), but I'm not as nervous about them. In Maine, it seems like Collins and Snowe are blurred together into these bookend independent, common sense, fairly liberal women who vote accordingly. But that is not really the truth, especially with Collins. What I'm wondering is not what will happen between now and then (because you're probably right), but why it's not very competitive now.
[ Parent ]
Snowe
though is like a political God in Maine.  I think using her huge re-election is overstating the chances of Collins because Collins is not Snowe.  Hell, I even like Snowe.

Also, Maine President poll with Obama up 22 points
according to rasmussen.  

[ Parent ]
I like her too...
She seems to vote the right way for the right reasons, not because she's up for re-election. But it almost seems like people see no difference between the two and like Collins is running for Snowe's 4th term. I think if it weren't for Snowe's popularity, Collins' race would be ranked in the top 3. I hope you're right about all of this, and I'm more optimistic now than I was a few months ago, but I still worry she'll squeak by with 50.1%.

I wonder if Lieberman will campaign for her. She's his second-best friend forever (after McCain), but she would be his main competition for Ranking Member of Homeland Security & Government Affairs when he finally gets dumped by the caucus.

[ Parent ]
Today's Rasmussen 47 Collins/ 42 Allen
Definitely a sign this race is tightening. Snowe has still got to be considered the favorite, but I'd definitely rank Maine way ahead of Kansas
[ Parent ]
collins
you mean collins(you say snowe in the body); and i agree with you %100;i think the new refrain from maine this cycle will turn out to be "so goes barack obama, so goes tom allen!!!"
[ Parent ]
oops
yes, I meant Collins, not Snowe. Thanks for the catch
[ Parent ]
oops --Collins 49/ Allen 42
Sorry, I misread the number when I looked at it first time

But even with that, this is a very competitive race


[ Parent ]
Here we go
Solid Take Over
1. Virginia  Senator Mark Warner
2. New Mexico  Senator Tom Udall

Likely Take Over
3. Colorado  Senator Mark Udall
4. New Hampshire  Senate Jeanne Sheehan

Lean Take Over
5. Minnesota  Senator Al Franken
6. Alaska  Senator Mark Begich
7. Oregon   Senator Gordon Smith
8. North Carolina   Senator Kay Hagan
9. Mississippi-B
10. Maine

Toss-Up
11. Kentucky

Lean Republican
12. Texas
13. Kansas
14. Nebraska
15. Georgia (with Martin, Obama, and DSCC)
16. Oklahoma
17. Idaho

We'll sweep all the way through toss-up and take 1-3 lean Republicans maybe.  So I'm gonna project like 10-14 seats.

In the House, I bet we'll gain like 40-50 seats.  I'm gonna love my all blue Minnesota delegation, the only Republican left in the state will be Pawlenty, and he'll have just failed at becoming VP by an embarrassing margin.  Maybe he'll flub some debates too and look like an idiot, thank you governorship in 2010 and gay marriage for me  :)  Maybe we can be the first to do it through legislation so we cant have the religious right bitch.  

Obama will easily win with a bit over 350 electoral votes.  Oh and the countless and countless state legislative seats, that is really where legislation that affects our every day lives happens.  Not that federal doesnt but state politics affects us way more.  

It's kind of sad getting my huge electoral victories so early in life, it can only go downhill from here, lol.

Louisiana will be tight but alright. New Jersey will be New Jersey.
1.  Virginia
2.  New Mexico

3.  Colorado
4.  New Hampshire

5.  Mississippi
6.  Alaska

7.  Oregon
8.  Minnesota
9.  North Carolina
10. Kentucky

11. Maine
12. Kansas
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Idaho
16. Nebraska
17. Georgia  

Here goes
1) Virginia
2) New Mexico
3) New Hampshire
4) Colorado
5) Alaska
6) Oregon
7) Mississippi
8) Minnesota
9) North Carolina
10) Louisiana
11) Maine
12) Kentucky
13) Kansas
14) Nebraska
15) Texas
16) Oklahoma
17) Idaho
mine
1)Virginia
2)New Mexico
3)New Hampshire
4)Colorado
5)Alaska
6)North Carolina
7)Mississippi-B
8)Oregon
9)Minnesota
10)Kentucky
11)Louisiana
12)Maine
13)Kansas
14)Oklahoma
15)Nebraska
16)Texas
17)Idaho
18)Georgia
19)New Jersey
20)South Carolina

8-10 seat pickup

south carolina
a SOUTH CAROLINA sighting!!!! i love it; south carolina does have HUGE numbers of blacks who are eligible voters but are unregistered;clearly, the obama folks can help in that regard; and graham does face some opposition from his own party; i like the way you decided make the field bigger here
[ Parent ]
lol I wanted to make it 20
and I looked down the remaining races after 19 and figured that South Carolina had the highest Black Population.
[ Parent ]
My Prediction
Just so I can later brag (or more likely hang my head in shame), I'll need to put myself on record:

1.  VA
2.  NM
3.  NH
4.  CO
5.  LA
6.  AK
7.  MN
8.  MS-B
9.  OR
10. ME
11. NC
12. NJ
13. KS
14. NE
15. TX
16. ID
17. SD
18. GA
19. OK
20. AL
21. TN

Most likely to flip
Most likely to flip
Here's my ranking for all the races -- although I don't think anything is even remotely possible once you get down to around 20
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Maine
8. Mississippi (Wicker)
9. Louisiana (D held seat)
10. Minnesota
11. North Carolina
12. Kentucky
13. New Jersey (D held seat)
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. Nebraska
17. Kansas
18. Georgia
19. Idaho
20. South Carolina
21. Tennessee
22. Alabama
23. Mississippi (Cochran)
24. South Dakota (D)
26. Michigan (D)
27. West Virginia (D)
28. Iowa (D)
29. Delaware (D)
30. Illinois (D)
31. Wyoming (Barasso)
32: tie   (impossible)
  Wyoming (Enzi)
  Massaschusetts (D)
  Rhode Island (D)
  Montana (D)
  Arkansas (D)
MN-Sen
Independent Dean Barkley won't run

http://www.startribune.com/pol...

MINNEAPOLIS - Former Jesse Ventura adviser Dean Barkley says he's decided not to run for the U.S. Senate this year, where he served briefly in 2002, but still hopes his old boss will run.

When Ventura was governor, he appointed Barkley to fill the remainder of Paul Wellstone's term after Wellstone was killed in a plane crash. Barkley had persuaded Ventura to run for governor in 1998 and later served in his administration.

Barkley said a few weeks ago he might run as an independent this year, but now says he recently got a new job that prevents him from getting in the race.

Barkley would not have won but he may have drawn around 10% of the vote. The recent SUSA poll had him drawing roughley equally from Coleman and Franken but my hunch is he would have hurt Franken more (splitting the anti-incumbant vote). The big remaining question is if Jessie Ventura will run. My guess would be Ventura is just trying to sell books and has no intention of running but you never know.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

i hope you are right
i like franken's chances in a straight up head-to-head matchup; i agree with you on the notion that ANY third party candidate hurts franken by splitting the anti-incumbent vote
[ Parent ]
Independence Party
ALWAYS screws over the DFL.  Any serious Independence Party bid would ruin this race.

I really hope Barkley isn't stepping aside because Ventura will hop in.  

This is why we need Instant Runoff Voting, to stop the Indepedence Party from being our spoiler.  They are the only reason Pawlenty got re-elected.  The vote totals were 47%-46%-7%.   The guy who ran, Peter Hutchinson, sounded exactly like Mike Hatch (the DFL candidate) except he gave better explanations on how to fund stuff.

I loathe the Independence Party.....

[ Parent ]
Here's my 2 cents
1  VA  Jim Gilmore V Mark Warner
2  NM  Steve Pearce V Tom Udall
3  NH  John Sununnu V Jeanne Shaheen
4  CO  Bob Schaffer V Mark Udall
5  AK  Ted Stevens V Mark Beigich
6  MSb Roger Wicker V Ronnie Musgrove
7  MN  Norm Coleman V Al Franken
8  NC  Elizabeth Dole V Kay Hagan
9  OR  Gordon Smith V Jeff Merkley
10 LA  Mary Landrieu V John Kennedy
11 ME  Susan Collins V Tom Allen
12 KY  Mitch McConell V Bruce Lunsford
13 KS  Pat Roberts V Jim Slattery
14 TX  John Cornyn V Rick Noriega
15 NE  Mike Johanns V Scott Kleeb
16 OK  James Inhofe V Andrew Rice
17 NJ  Dick Zimmer V Frank Lautneberg
18 ID  Jim Risch V Larry LaRocco
19 SD  Tim Johnson V Joel Dykstra
20 MI  Carl Levin V Jack Hoogendyk
21 GA  Saxby Chambliss V Jim Martin ???
22 IA  Tom Harkin V Chris Reed
23 MSa Thad Cochran V Erick Flemming
24 AL  Jeff Sessions V Vivian Figures
25 WV  Jay Rockerfeller V Jay Wolfe
26 MA  John Kerry V Jeff Beaty
27 TN  Lamar Alexander V Bob Tuke
28 MT  Max Baucus V Bob Kelleher
29 DE  Joe Biden V Christine O'Donnell
30 SC  Lindsey Graham V (Runoff)
31 IL  Dick Durbin V Steve Sauerberg
32 WYb John Barasso V Nick Carter?
33 WYa Mike Enzi V Chris Rothfuss ?
34 RI  Jack Reed  - Unopposed*
35 AR  Mark Pryor - Unopposed
Here is the consensus so far
Below is a table averaging all of the rankings.

Blanks (states not ranked) were replaced with the next highest ranking.  For example, if someone ranked 14 races, the remaining states received a ranking of 15.

The sample size (number of entries) is 26.

The number in parentheses is the average ranking.

1. Virginia (1.00)
2. New Mexico (2.00)
3. New Hampshire (3.46)
4. Colorado (3.54)
5. Alaska (5.19)
6. Mississippi - B (7.15)
7. Oregon (7.50)
8. Minnesota (7.81)
9. North Carolina (9.04)
10. Louisiana (10.88)
11. Maine (11.04)
12. Kentucky (11.73)
13. Kansas (13.42)
14. Texas (13.96)
15. Nebraska (14.54)
16. Oklahoma (14.69)
17. Idaho (15.23)
18. New Jersey (15.88)
19. Georgia (16.50)

Below that, there were very few entries for other states, so they were not included.

Nice work
Thanks for taking the time to put that aggregate ranking together.  Nicely done.
[ Parent ]
JUNE SENATE CATTLE CALL
my list:
1/ VIRGINIA
2/ NEW MEXICO
3/ COLORADO
4/ NEW HAMPSHIRE
5/ ALASKA
6/ OREGON
7/ NORTH CAROLINA
8/ MISSISSIPPI(b)
9/ MINNESOTA
10/MAINE
11/KENTUCKY
12/OKLAHOMA
13/TEXAS
14/KANSAS
15/NEBRASKA
16/GEORGIA(martin candidacy only)
17/IDAHO
Just as a reference
Here is where Rasmussen has the races using the most recent polls.  I only use Rasmussen because they are the only firm polling Senate races frequently.  The only race they are obviously well off the mark is KY.

VA - Up by 27
NM - Up by 16
NH - Up by 7
CO - Up by 6
KY - Up by 5
MS - Up by 1

AK - Down by 2
MN - Down by 3
ME - Down by 7
OR - down by 9
KS - Down by 9
NC - Down by 14
NE - Down by 15
TX - Down by 17
Races Rasmussen has not polled which may matter: OK, ID

Dem seat in danger
LA - Up by 3

June Senate Cattle Call | 85 comments

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