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NY-13: CQ Changes Rating from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite"

by: The Caped Composer

Fri Jun 13, 2008 at 10:23 AM EDT


With the Democratic Party coalescing behind City Councilman Michael McMahon, and the GOP similarly backing former Wall Street executive Frank Powers, the race for what was once a safe Republican seat has now been rated a toss-up, according to Congressional Quarterly. 

The semi-suburban nature of the district gives it a stronger Republican lean than any other part of New York City, but that advantage is countered by the fact that McMahon is an elected official, representing the northern third of the district on the City Council, while Powers has never held elective office. 

Further complicating matters is the fact that Powers still has time to make himself known to voters before November, and McMahon faces a primary challenge from lawyer Stephen Harrison, who ran against the now-scandal-plagued retiring Republican Rep. Vito Fossella in 2006.  The district has consistently voted for Fossella over the past few elections, but has split its presidential votes; in 2000, Al Gore won the district with 53% of the vote, but George W. Bush defeated John Kerry there in 2004, with 55%.

The Caped Composer :: NY-13: CQ Changes Rating from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite"
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mcmahon looks like the favorite
this is truly one of the weirdest districts i've seen in terms of its PVI.  i mean is there another district in the US where Gore got 58% in '00 and Bush got 57% in '00.  Obviously the "9/11 effect" is in play here.  But then can someone share the deeper numbers?

Like:
How did spitzer do here in '06? clinton in '06?  How many state reps are dems?  how many gop? same with state senators.

I want to say - hey we're going to win this, but bush's 57% in '04 and fossella's 57% in '06 (when folks like boyda, shea-porter, and loebsack were upsetting well-established republicans around the country) seems rather solid.


elected leaders in Staten Island
State Senators:
Diane Savino (R)
Andrew Lanza (R)

State Assembly:
Matt Titone (D)
Mike Cusick (D)
Janele Hyer-Spencer (D)
Lou Tobacco (R)

City Council:
Mike McMahon (D)
Vincent Ignizio (R)
James Oddo (R)

Borough President:
James Molinaro (R)

Borough DA:
Dan Donovan (R)


[ Parent ]
Diane Savino (D) not (R) n/t


[ Parent ]
2004
Of the four Assembly Districts in Staten Island Bush and Fossella carried 3 of the 4, yet Schumer on the same ballot carried all four garnering 64% in the closest district.

I don't have the Clinton '06 numbers but she carried the district as well.

Some numbers break down that may be of interest;
NY-13 (my first blog post on this race)
NY-13, part II; the candidates


[ Parent ]
NY in general, and especially NYC
Shifted towards Bush due to 9/11. I'd excpect a shift back towards 2000 numbers this year in the presidential election.

Cook made the same change yesterday (n/t)


Nah, Cook moved it to Tossup at least a week ago
The only move he made this week was VA-11 Tossup to Lean D.  IMO NY-13 is EASILY Lean D, maybe even Likely D at this time.  

[ Parent ]
I'm bullish
I call it "leans Democratic takeover". NY will be a bloodbath for the NRCC.

Yes it will
NY-13th and 25th are practically a given.  NY-26th is leaning our way.  And NY-29 is a tossup at worst for us.  A 27-2 or 26-3 delegation seems the most likely outcome.

[ Parent ]
27-2 just in time for New York to lose 2 districts
Guess which ones they are going to be?

[ Parent ]
Will that be tough to accomplish?
I believe some have stated on here that King wouldn't be hard to lose but McHugh would be.  Where exactly is the population fall-off coming from in New York anyway?  Is it dwindling in NYC metro or upstate?

[ Parent ]
Upstate.
The manufacturing-based economy up there has been hit hard, so that's where the population is draining from.

[ Parent ]

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