| Republicans talked a good game at the start of the cycle about the wealth of pick-up opportunities they had in 2008. SSP favorite Tom Cole, boasted of his party's chances in the Almanac of American Politics that "2008 will be a year to hunt with a shotgun, not a rifle." Sure, but look who's holding the gun now.
One such district that the GOP hoped to put in play was North Carolina's 11th CD, an R+7 district that supported Bush by a 14-point margin in 2004. But things haven't gone exactly as planned.
First, ex-Rep. Charles Taylor, whom Shuler beat by a healthy margin in '06, dithered on whether he'd seek a rematch for most of 2007, putting a serious damper on candidate recruitment. When all was said and done, the GOP was left with two recruits: Asheville City Councilor Carl Mumpower and Henderson Co. GOP Chair Spence Campbell. While Campbell had more fundraising potential (he had raised and self-funded a total of $217K through April 16), Mumpower won the May 6th primary.
A Mumpower candidacy brings a number of problems for Republicans. First, he's not exactly well-funded. As of April 16, he's only raised $27,000 and has $2000 on-hand. And it sure doesn't sound like the situation is going to improve any time soon:
Republican candidate for Congress in the 11th Congressional District Carl Mumpower sees a new path to Capital Hill, and it is paved with $5 bills. Mumpower launched a new campaign strategy to fund his run for Congress with $5 donations. Called the "Lincoln Campaign," the effort seeks to distance Mumpower from political action committees and large-dollar donors.
"I am committed to not accepting any PAC, union, party, or other special interest monies to help me buy a seat in," Mumpower said in a released statement.
Yup, that's right -- his fundraising will come in $5 increments. He even told the NRCC to shove it:
"I got a call from the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) earlier today," Mumpower said Wednesday afternoon. "And I told them we were not interested in their money. I believe that organization has passively supported our leadership in abandoning their principles, and I have no interest in aligning myself with a self-serving organization."
Mumpower said he got quite a reaction for that stance.
"I think they were a little stunned," Mumpower said. "Maybe there's a better word for that. I think they were a little surprised. But I'm not interested in the tail wagging the dog. I'm going to run an authentic maverick campaign."
In this case, I definitely think we can all agree that Mumpower actually is running an "authentic maverick campaign." Take his recent comments arguing that President Bush should be impeached for his failure to adequately protect the border. That might be one way to "distance yourself" from an unpopular president, but it's not going to help you raise the funds and profile needed to defeat an incumbent who hasn't made any fireable offenses in his first term in office.
Due to Mumpower's sheer flakiness, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic.
SSP's full House race ratings are available here. |
