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OH-02: Wulsin Leads Schmidt in New Poll

by: James L.

Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 4:59 PM EDT


American Political Polling (5/31-6/2, registered voters):

Vic Wulsin (D): 30
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 24
David Krikorian (I): 13
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±3.5%)

The poll also shows that Schmidt has a job approval rating of 23%, and Bush at 40%. But this is one weird poll, and frankly, the numbers seem a little suspect. Was there any attempt made to push leaners?

Here's a "bonus finding" from the poll: Obama leads McCain by 34-33 in Ohio's 2nd CD. Let the record show that this is an R+13 district.

These numbers just seem too hard to believe. Full memo below the fold.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
James L. :: OH-02: Wulsin Leads Schmidt in New Poll
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OH-02: Wulsin Leads Schmidt in New Poll | 34 comments
Why?
Look around the country. Poll after poll shows a Republican meltdown.
When do you ever see...
...polls with the incumbent UNDER 30, an independent scoring that many points, and so many undecided voters?  I realize this is Schmidt, but come on.

Also, while I'm sure Obama will do better in this district than Kerry did, is he really leading McCain here?  REALLY?

Also, the polling firm is pretty unknown to me.

[ Parent ]
The truth may be in the middle
It's possible that it is more like a 42-38 split in either direction, maybe Schmidt slightly ahead.  
[ Parent ]
thanks james l.
this was my next? question; i have never heard of this polling firm; has anyone here heard of them? if so, are they repub? democrat? indy? american nazi party? most people on this site are astute enough to know that polls can be anything you want them to be; there were a few folks here(not calling out anyone)that drank the fallon kool-aid due to a "POLL"(i supported fallon through howard dean's brothers group democracy for america but not ONCE did i think boswell would lose; though i am glad he got the wake-up call because i guarantee you his voting record will improve)
[ Parent ]
It's a non-partisan firm.
So they say.
[ Parent ]
thanks
this leads to the obvious next question; why are they polling?(i will go there site and try to find out; most firms(even non-partsian)do not poll out of "kindness")
[ Parent ]
Well...
... if you look at CO-04 and the actual 2006 results, and project a continuation of that trend across the nation, and factor in that Schmidt is regarded about as highly in her district as Marilyn Musgrave is in hers, then it doesn't seem as hard to believe.
[ Parent ]
High undecideds
The undecideds are so high that it is hard to take this poll seriously.
I feel good about us winning this one
Wulsin has higher name ID this year than she did in 2006  and is much better funded, with Ohio republicans in worse shape than ever before.  This race is easily a tossup already.
exactly
That's my theory how we win this district. Wulsin doesn't have to worry about getting herself known this time. And I think people genuinely underestimate the power of our a fund raising dominance and the Democratic momentum together, very rarely does a party in power (and their for dominated in fund raising.) able to have a wave election.  We won 30 seats last time with a significant fund raising disadvantage. Now we have a huge money lead, why are people predicting only 20-25 seats when the political environment is just as bad as it was in 2006 and  with the amount of near misses last time and retirements.

This election is going to be good.

[ Parent ]
Yes
It's like we have our best candidates who lost close races last cycle(Burner, Wulsin, Brown, Seals, Jennings, Esch, Derby, Stender, Maffei, Massa, etc.) as well as many new top tier recruits running this year.  This year should be unusual in that a large number of repeat challengers who lost 2 years prior will win.  
[ Parent ]
exactly

[ Parent ]
Not to mention that
The Republicans actually recruited people to run against our incumbents in 2006 who were decent. (Mark Kennedy and Tim Kaine Jr for example.) Which made us have to defer some of our money to defense and further exacerbated our fund raising deficit.

How are all those wonderful recruits working for them this year?

Kelleher, Brock Olivo, Powers, the zombie guy from South Dakota  i'm sure our incumbents in those districts/states are shaking in their boots.

[ Parent ]
Tim Kaine, Jr?
I think you mean Tom Kean, Jr, friend. :)
[ Parent ]
yeah
was typing about the vp on another board one track mind :)
[ Parent ]
Out of curiosity...
I decided to look up how Congressmen who abandoned their seats to run for higher office did in 2006.  We did well, they did horrible.  I'm insluding Robert Menendez since he was only appointed a short time before the election in 2006 and it was his first election for Senate.

Democrats (5 Wins 3 Losses)
Jim Davis (FL-11) - Lost run for Governor
Ed Case (HI-02) - Lost Primary for Senate
Ben Cardin (MD-03) - Won run for Senate
Ted Strickland (OH-06) - Won run for Governor
Sherrod Brown (OH-13) - Won run for Senate
Harold Ford (TN-09) - Lost run for Senate
Bernie Sanders (VT-AL) - Won run for Senate
Robert Menendez (NJ-13) - Appointed then Won run for Senate

Republicans (2 Wins 7 Losses)
Bob Beauprez (CO-07) - Lost run for Governor
Katherine Harris (FL-13) - Lost run for Senate
Butch Otter (ID-01) - Won run for Governor
Jim Nussle (IA-01) - Lost run for Governor
Mark Kennedy (MN-06) - Lost run for Senate
Tom Osborne (NE-03) - Lost Primary for Governor
Jim Gibbons (NV-02) - Won run for Governor
Ernest Istook (OK-05) - Lost run for Governor
Mark Green (WI-08) - Lost run for Governor

Beauprez, Nussle, Kennedy, Osborne, and Green were all considered top tier republicans for those races early on and they all lost big.

Here's 2008 so far:
Republicans
Kenny Hulshof (MO-09) - Running for Governor, going to get crushed by Nixon if he even wins the primary.
Heather Wilson (NM-01) - Lost Primary for Senate
Steve Pearce (NM-02) - Won republican primary

[ Parent ]
Sorry, post got cutoff... here is 2008
Here's 2008 so far:
Republicans
Kenny Hulshof (MO-09) - Running for Governor, going to get crushed by Nixon if he even wins the primary.
Heather Wilson (NM-01) - Lost Primary for Senate
Steve Pearce (NM-02) - Won republican primary for Senate, going to lost the general election big.

Democrats
Mark Udall (CO-02) - Next Senator from Colorado
Tom Allen (ME-01)- Running for Senate in a tough race
Tom Andrews (NJ-01) - Lost Primary for Senate in a blowout.
Tom Udall (NM-03) - Next Senator from New Mexico

[ Parent ]
Who is this independent?
Is this someone who is likely to take votes from Wulsin or from Schmidt?
More from Schmidt...
... but I'm guessing he can't help but take votes from Wulsin as well, ala Eric Eidsness took votes from both Musgrave and Angie Paccione in CO-04 in '06 (though the ultimate effect seems to be a softening of support for the incumbent, and making those voters more willing to vote for someone that doesn't have an "R" after their name by the time the next election cycle rolls around).  He is a classic conservative type -- a former Republican, just as Eidsness is/was, and one that despises the neocons.  If you read some of the material on the website, he will claim to be seriously looking to win the seat, but he is really looking to siphon enough votes away from the extremist (R) incumbent to allow the (D) to win, which is something I suspect was true of Eidsness as well.  Both of them focused more of their attacks on the incumbent and pretty much ignorned the Democrat all together, which is really the best strategy for this kind of stealth campaign to help the (D) win at the end of the long haul.
[ Parent ]
I think under the leadership of Jean Schmidt
The fightin' 2nd has gone from ruby red to a more diluted red. Republican tilt for sure, but still not nearly as Republican as before. The best way to hurt a party is to have incompetent people at the local level. I think we all owe Jean Schmidt a thanks for single handedly changing this district. Thank you Jean, you are the change we can believe in.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)
who the hell is KRIKORIAN
and how do we get him to withdraw?
(I)
Do we want him to withdraw?  I haven't read if he was running from the right or left, does anyone know?
[ Parent ]
it is basic
poli sci 101; when you have an incumbent polling as low as 24%; then you only want 2 folks on the ballot(right or left in this case plays NO role; the incumbent is getting LESS than 1 in 4 votes); of course, 1 MAJOR caveat here; is this poll accurate? that can be left for a further debate
[ Parent ]
gotcha
and I agree that the accuracy of this poll should probably be questioned, although I think this race is still close.  I think most can agree that Mean Jean will garner far more than 24&, so does anyone know if Kirkorian is running from the left or the right?  I'd be interested to know.
[ Parent ]
agreed
i will say this; if we see the dccc put major cash into wulsin(which i believe we will); then we will know we have a race for sure;something tells me MEAN JEAN is finally going down for the count(at that time, we need to have van hollen ready to drive the stake through her "heart")(notice the van hollen instead of "van helsing"
[ Parent ]
Wulsin may not need a major cash infusion
She's raising money at a very good clip, far better than Mean Jean.  And isn't this one of the cheaper markets to advertise in?
[ Parent ]
i agree
with you; i'm just saying i see this race as one the dccc won't let get by; i think they realize that they had mean jean on the ropes last time and will finish here off this round(it's kind of a mano-a-mano thing)
[ Parent ]
Hard to say
Here's his website:

http://www.krikorianforcongres...

His views page is long and rambly, but it looks like he's trying to steal votes from both sides.

Thor Jacobs, a Dem who ran for this seat in 2006 and lost the primary to Wulsin, has endorsed him.

[ Parent ]
He will probably wind up...
... helping a Dem win this district in the long run, even if it's in 2010 rather than 2008.  See Eric Eidsness in CO-04.  Rinse.  Repeat.
[ Parent ]
I doubt Krikorian will get that high
a percentage in November. This is a pretty funky poll but I do think it's very winnable for Vic!
i went to the site
and read the whole thing(as much as they would release without a fee); i think this poll may have been commissioned by krikorian; you folks can go there and draw your own inferences but some of the language used and the "suspect" numbers leads me to that conclusion
Not to be a huge downer
But we clearly are going to lose this seat in 2010...  The DCCC better not spend a cent here.
WEIRD NUMBERS YES, BUT
i don't know if anyone read rothenburg's take on this race (and i know many of you will not care what he has to say), but it was kind of sad.  his point was that the candidates for this race (schmidt and wulsin) are two of the worst congressional candidates in the country with schmidt polarizing and not very sharp and wulsin having little or no command of the issues.

now again - rothenburg has his own biases, but if there is truth to rothenburg's assertion, then this is exactly the kind of seat where voters wgho have gotten to know both these candidates pretty well in the last 3 years might still not want to support either.

Hence Krikorian?
Anyone know about this guy?  Left, right, center, Jesse Ventura?
[ Parent ]
OH-02: Wulsin Leads Schmidt in New Poll | 34 comments

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