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CA-04: Brown Leads Ose and McClintock in New Poll

by: James L.

Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 2:43 PM EDT


Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (5/14-15, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 38
Dough Ose (R): 34
Undecided: 27

Charlie Brown (D): 42
Tom McClintock (R): 40
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)

Ose and McClintock are giving each other an absolute shellacking over the airwaves, so these are some nice numbers for Brown. Also of note -- on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats and Republicans are at a 43%-43% parity, with 15% undecided. Those are dramatic numbers from an R+10.9 district.

Here are a few select favorability ratings from the poll:

McCain: 58/35
Obama: 57/34
McClintock: 39/29
Bush: 38/58
Brown: 36/18
Doolittle: 32/48
Ose: 27/28

It'll be tough for Brown to get those few extra points that he needs to clinch a win here, but the numbers suggest that it's certainly not impossible.

James L. :: CA-04: Brown Leads Ose and McClintock in New Poll
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I'll take it with a grain of salt
but it truly shows that it is a democratic year.

These numbers look vaguely like the WY-AL numbers
meaning that we might have a slight advantage but we'll need to work our butts off on these races.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Go Charlie Brown
I knew he had a great shot at taking this seat.

I'll wait for an independent poll and for the repub primary to end
Before taking one partisan poll all that seriously.  As of this moment I'd still put this race at Lean R.  

Yep, given the usual leanings...
of a partisan poll being about 5 points or so, that would put Brown behind McClintock and Ose even as they go through a nasty primary.

Not exactly encouraging, but still winnable with a lot of hard work on our parts here in California.


[ Parent ]
"Encouraging" is relative
To this district being about as red as it is. The inherent flaws in both GOP candidates are just starting to come out despite the bajillion dollars going into it. With CA-11 being a battle and the Bay Area busing revving up again with Charlie's profile way higher than two years ago, the dynamics are encouraging.  Hardly anything like a foregone conclusion, but the path exists.

[ Parent ]

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